SBSQ #12: Will the polls lowball Trump again?

https://www.natesilver.net/p/sbsq-12-will-the-polls-lowball-trump

Title is hyperbole. Essentially the answer is maybe but most likely not. Has a discussion about potential poll error in the context of precision vs. accuracy. Notes that the model assumes accuracy but not precision.

-17 points · 3 comments · view on lemmy.world

3 Comments

mozz@mbin.grits.dev · 14 pts · 1y (1 reply)

TL;DR Here’s how my model works model model model anyway you gotta subscribe to hear the answer.

abff08f4813c@j4vcdedmiokf56h3ho4t62mlku.srv.us · 12 pts · 1y

For what it's worth, the first sentence after the subscriber paywall is this,

My short answer is "no". Indeed, if I thought polling was predicatbly biased, I'd have built that into the model somehow.

MediaBiasFactChecker@lemmy.world · -8 pts · 1y

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