While Michael's assertion of a 50% chance of winning the race seems logical from his subjective viewpoint of "winning or not winning", it's mathematically incorrect. In a race with five equally skilled runners, the probability of any one runner winning is 1/5, or 20%. Michael's simplification of the outcomes doesn't correctly calculate the probability and indicates a possible misunderstanding of how to calculate odds.
Yes, this was made with ChatGPT.
No, I'm not fun at parties.
Assume there is a Michael, who on race day was mysteriously cloned 4 times in a perfect manner such that biologically and psychologically they are a perfect copy to the original. So there are now 4 Michaels plus one proto Michael.
Now they are put to a 100m race on a standard race track. Assume that the universe has normal randomness in wind and temperature variation. What is the probability that proto Michael wins the race?
Still not enough info. The race is legally a tie if the times are within a certain (I think a millisecond) interval, and with runners this similar in ability, the probability that nobody wins is non-zero.
The randomness in the air molecules are enough to case minor variation in finish timings.
I think I should add that the observer can see the finish line with an accuracy of one Planck length and that observation uses a mysterious method which avoids Heisenburgs uncertainty principle. That should make the question well-defined 😆
This is a huge meme in the old school RuneScape community. Some important drops are as rare as 1/5000 but people always say “you either get the drop or you don’t”
18 Comments
Jay@sh.itjust.works · 31 pts · 3y
While Michael's assertion of a 50% chance of winning the race seems logical from his subjective viewpoint of "winning or not winning", it's mathematically incorrect. In a race with five equally skilled runners, the probability of any one runner winning is 1/5, or 20%. Michael's simplification of the outcomes doesn't correctly calculate the probability and indicates a possible misunderstanding of how to calculate odds.
Yes, this was made with ChatGPT. No, I'm not fun at parties.
vext01@lemmy.sdf.org · 21 pts · 3y
But the question didn't say the drivers were equally skilled.
So the question cannot be answered!
Also not fun at parties...
0x4E4F@lemmy.rollenspiel.monster · 5 pts · 3y
You 2 should hang out with me more often.
JustAManOnAToilet@lemmy.world · 3 pts · 3y
We're onto drivers now? Well that's easy, which one is driving a Red Bull?
Sphks@lemmy.dbzer0.com · 3 pts · 3y
Also if they are equally skilled, his chances of winning is 0% since it will be a draw.
vext01@lemmy.sdf.org · 3 pts · 3y
One assumes some non-determinism due to stochastic events in the racing environment.
ShunkW@lemmy.world · 28 pts · 3y
This is an old running meme in the hearthstone community. No matter the question, 50/50 it either happens or it doesn't
TokyoMonsterTrucker@lemmy.dbzer0.com · 14 pts · 3y
That's actually the best possible answer as it's a deeply stupid question. To many uncontrolled variables for a simple probability question.
Who are the other runners? If it's Usain Bolt vs. a 4th grader, the probability of the 4th grader winning approaches zero.
NewEnglandRedshirt@lemmy.world · 8 pts · 3y
This fall, on Fox... Are You Faster than a 4th Grader?
xavier666@lemm.ee · 3 pts · 3y
Assume there is a Michael, who on race day was mysteriously cloned 4 times in a perfect manner such that biologically and psychologically they are a perfect copy to the original. So there are now 4 Michaels plus one proto Michael.
Now they are put to a 100m race on a standard race track. Assume that the universe has normal randomness in wind and temperature variation. What is the probability that proto Michael wins the race?
wumpus@latte.isnot.coffee · 2 pts · 3y
Still not enough info. The race is legally a tie if the times are within a certain (I think a millisecond) interval, and with runners this similar in ability, the probability that nobody wins is non-zero.
xavier666@lemm.ee · 2 pts · 3y
The randomness in the air molecules are enough to case minor variation in finish timings. I think I should add that the observer can see the finish line with an accuracy of one Planck length and that observation uses a mysterious method which avoids Heisenburgs uncertainty principle. That should make the question well-defined 😆
TokyoMonsterTrucker@lemmy.dbzer0.com · 1 pts · 3y
THANK YOU. So much better.
MonkderZweite@feddit.ch · 1 pts · 3y
10%. With exact clones it would be 0%, a draw. But with random influences, either of them has a 50% chance.
And /s if i'm wrong.
0x4E4F@lemmy.rollenspiel.monster · -1 pts · 3y
It's still 50/50, he either wins or he doesn't 😁 😂.
jsonborne@lemmy.ml · 11 pts · 3y
This is a huge meme in the old school RuneScape community. Some important drops are as rare as 1/5000 but people always say “you either get the drop or you don’t”