The older it is, the longer it will remain (Lindy effect)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect

23 points · 2 comments · view on lemmy.world

2 Comments

Zachariah@lemmy.world · 7 pts · 1y (1 reply)

The Lindy effect applies to "non-perishable" items, those that do not have an "unavoidable expiration date".[2] For example, human beings are perishable: the life expectancy at birth in developed countries is about 80 years. So the Lindy effect does not apply to individual human lifespan: all else being equal, it is less likely for a 10-year-old human to die within the next year than for a 100-year-old, while the Lindy effect would predict the opposite.

RustyEarthfire@lemmy.world · 4 pts · 1y

For perishable items, you'd get a bathtub curve. For humans in particular one more precise estimate is the Gompertz–Makeham law of mortality.