Predictions thread

Free form predictions, imaginary internet points awarded for being closest on seat count, popular vote, turnout, etc. Predict whatever you want! Timestamps before 8pm Atlantic time please :)

12 points · 13 comments · view on lemmy.world

13 Comments

veeesix@lemmy.ca · 9 pts · 1y (1 reply)

I predict that no matter the outcome the family group chat will continue to be “liberal this, liberal that”.

avidamoeba@lemmy.ca · 5 pts · 1y

"liberal lost decade" or not that bad?

troyunrau@lemmy.ca · 7 pts · 1y (3 replies)

Libs with 180. Cons 130. BQ 24. NDP 8. Greens 1.

Libs 41%. Cons 40%. NDP 8%. BQ 6%. Others 5%.

Turnout 68%.

jerkface@lemmy.ca · 3 pts · 1y (1 reply)

Turnout 68%.

Gosh, that would be something.

troyunrau@lemmy.ca · 1 pts · 1y

Historical turnouts: https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=ele&dir=turn&document=index&lang=e

I think 68% was damned close -- and similar to what we got in 2015.

However, I underestimated how much this election would turn into a two-party election (both the liberals and conservatives had higher popular vote than I expected). And overestimated the liberal vote efficiency being able to translate that into seats.

KittyKalledKarma@slrpnk.net · 2 pts · 1y

Libs at 160 and cons at 138 right now not too bad.

avidamoeba@lemmy.ca · 5 pts · 1y (5 replies)

Libs: 170, NDP: 5, the rest undefined

troyunrau@lemmy.ca · 4 pts · 1y (2 replies)

That would be kind of funny. The NDP would be able to prop up a minority again for up to four years. Would give them some legislative power without official party status...

avidamoeba@lemmy.ca · 2 pts · 1y (1 reply)

And it would probably mean Jagmeet stays and therefore another bad election after that. I want Jagmeet gone. 😞 PP too.

troyunrau@lemmy.ca · 2 pts · 1y

Unless he loses his own seat in this scenario

troyunrau@lemmy.ca · 2 pts · 1y (1 reply)

Damn, this is pretty close eh :)

avidamoeba@lemmy.ca · 2 pts · 1y

Fuck me. I just came to this. I did not want it to be this close. 😆

ray@sh.itjust.works · 4 pts · 1y
  1. Liberals will get about 180 seats and form a majority government
  2. Poilievre will not step down as Conservative leader