In 1914, Russia was ruled by an authoritarian Monarchist regime that was led by a tyrant who had a ego and was out of touch. This leader, Tsar Nicholas II, feared the power of his crown was weakening and so he decided to have Russia join WWI thinking that it would be easy victory that would lead to him entrenching his power and realizing his imperial ambitions. For 3 long years, Russia suffered extremely heavy losses for very mediocre results. These losses set the stage for revolutions to take place in 1918 that led to the end of the monarchy and the Russian Empire.
In 1979 the Soviet Union was ruled by an authoritarian Marxist regime led by a tyrant who had a big ego and was out of touch. This leader, Leonid Brezhnev, feared that Soviet grip on the islamic republics in central Asia was weakening and so he decided to have the Soviet Union invade invade Afghanistan thinking it would be an easy victory that would lead him to entrench the CCCP's power in central Asia and realize his imperial ambitions. For 9 long years, the Soviet Union suffered extremely heavy losses for very mediocre results. These losses set the stage for revolutions to take place in 1991 that led to the end of Communism and the Soviet Union.
In 2022, the Russian Federation was ruled by an authoritarian oligarchic regime led by a tyrant who had a big ego and was out of touch. This leader, Vladimir Putin, feared that his grip on power was weakening and so he decided to invade Ukraine thinking it would be an easy victory that would lead him to entrench his power and realize his imperial ambitions of restoring the Soviet borders. For 4 long years and counting, Russia suffered extremely heavy losses for very mediocre results. We are now witnessing these losses set the stage for a new revolution to take place that will lead to the fall of the Russian Federation.
History doesn't repeat, but it sure does rhyme, doesn't it?
I firmly believe that we are currently witnessing the Russian Federation fall into collapse in real time. They are making the same exact mistakes that led the country to collapse twice in the last century. In both of the previous collapses, Russia was seen as a great world power that was strong, but had some major flaws. Mainly that the Russian economy was not doing well and the population was going through demographic turmoil. In both cases, the wars that the country dragged themselves into exasperated these issues leaving the people desperate and angry. We're currently seeing the same thing happen now.
Russia's fumble in Ukraine is one of the biggest, if not the biggest, humiliation stories of this century. Russia went from being a well respected military power that's widely considered the second strongest in the world, to now being a joke of a military that's the second best in Ukraine. They all their political legitmacy, diplomatic power, their economy, the strength of their currency, their military strength, and over half a million young men... and for what? less than 20% of Ukraine's territory. That's less than half of the territory they originally captured in the first few weeks, and that percentage is slowly decreasing. They're losing a war they started against a much smaller and weaker neighbor.
How can Putin and his regime ever salvage this situation? How can Russia recover from this? The answer is that they can't. The days of the current regime are numbered, and the Russian Federation will collapse within the decade as the demographic collapse and hollow economy start to bite the population. Mark my words, we will see a revolution in Russia start to take place in a few years, and we will have a new Russian state within the decade.
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