The USMNT fell short at the World Cup, but were odds and expectations unrealistic?

It sucks to make Graham Ruthven write this article because he's one of the few writers left with an Athletic byline that actually know ball. You could have gotten any idiot who actually follows the USMNT to tell you we were overrated coming in to the tournament, and Graham has had very smart things to say about this group throughout the entire cycle. The Athletic, as a publication, was taken in because they have laid off the vast majority of the good soccer writers that made them such a force before the NYT acquisition.

I was discussing this with some friends yesterday. The answer is an emphatic 'YES!' But there's are several facets as to why:

• Probably the fundamental reason is that football (soccer) still is a tertiary sport in America. It's getting a lot more attention than it used to, which is great. But it's still an afterthought among many Americans, after American football, baseball, basketball, and even hockey, NASCAR, and golf. And that means it's not getting the focus and resources it really needs for the USMNT to turn into a world powerhouse. The fact that the USWNT is so successful is due to women's sports not having anywhere near as many established sports. There was a gap for football a few decades ago, and the USWNT took it. That same windows has not opened up on the men's side. And honestly, it's doubtful it ever will.
• Building on the above point, this means there are a lot of distractions and cultural baggage taking away from the sport in America. I coach at a youth level over here, and I see how interest in the game drops off precipitously once kids hit about 15 or 16. And at that point, naturally, the infrastructure for the sport narrows a lot, and crowd interest drops off heavily. Compared that with smaller countries like Cape Verde. They have far fewer resources by default. But interest in the sort stays strong all the way through into adulthood. So percentage wise a lot more attention and resources go to the sport than in America.
• In general, host nations have greater belief they can go all the way. It's a natural assumption based on the buzz of winning the opportunity to host the event. That 'win' usually (and incorrectly) gets transmuted into winning the actual tournament. Plus you have the home team buzz going on. Which leads to a feedback loop of hype around fans and domestic pundits and reporters. This is also reflected in the individual buzz, like how Pulisic was being (ridiculously) framed in the same category as Messi, Ronaldo, and Mbappe by some in the media.
• The USMNT started out the gates really fast and really well. This amplified the existing hopes of World Cup glory from a 'possibly' into a 'probably'. But as we all know, the group stage is a different animal than the knockout phase.
• This next point is kinda controversial, but there's a misunderstanding by some (many?) US fans about the current coach. People were seeing Pochetino's club successes and about his reputation in a bubble. He plays attacking, exciting football; he's regarded highly as a coach. Both true, but that's at a club level, not a national level. And national level coaching is a different beast.
• Lastly, winning the World Cup is FUCKING HARD!!! I didn't think many Americans realize how hard. But that sense of manifest destiny kicks in and too many people here go "were number one at everything! So that includes soccer!" and completely downplay the abilities of other nations and the tactical complexities of the tournament.

I think two things can be true at once here.

USMNT underperformed against Belgium in the context of this tournament - the grit and pace we saw in the first two games was not present and the team looked sloppier than they had been.

But they were also way over hyped. Belgium was always going to be a struggle for the US side, as seen in the friendly, and those first two games were a positive departure from their friendlies performances overall. Belgium played a trap against the high press, which USMNT didn't seem to have an answer for, and an aging CB past his prime introduced a weakness in the box that was exploited. It was less relevant with weaker sides, since the press forced turnovers and took pressure off the defensive end.

All told, an exit in Ro16 is about what should have been expected if the FIFA rankings coming into the WC could be believed. USMNT did well enough but could have had a more competitive match. Either team is going to go out against Spain in any case.