Boeing: Conflict Cuts 2026 Air Traffic Growth Forecast In Half

Global air traffic growth in 2026 will be more than halved compared to earlier predictions because of the Iran war, Boeing says, though the company forecasts a faster‑than‑usual recovery that will return passenger traffic to its long‑term growth trajectory by the end of 2028.

“We were looking at 6% growth in February before the conflict in the Middle East began, and that reset the expectations for the rest of this year,” says Darren Hulst, vice president of commercial marketing for Boeing Commercial Airplanes. The company now expects year‑on‑year passenger growth, measured in revenue passenger kilometers, to be about 2.3% for 2026.