How to end the ‘Hormuz war’

Author: Alan Eyre
Published on: 02/08/2026 | 00:00:00

AI Summary:
More than five months of intermittent bombing of Iran have not brought Tehran any closer to surrender. Recurring threats by US President Donald Trump to launch a massive military campaign against Iran aren’t causing Iran to submit to US demands. Meanwhile, diminished stocks of critical US weapons, plummeting approval ratings heading into the midterms and a looming global economic crisis due to increasing commodity shortages stemming from a closed Strait of Hormuz, are all putting political pressure on the US to despite having a military budget more than 100 times the size of Iran, the US military cannot open the passage and keep it open. Trump has repeatedly threatened apocalyptic carnage on Iran with the goal of inflicting enough pain on Iranian society to force its leaders to agree to US demands. Iran-Oman talks are ongoing and are the best chance for a least-bad resolution of the problem. The outcome of these talks is unknowable. Oman and other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council are more adept and motivated to negotiate with Iran than the US. Iran wants a “new normal” where it controls maritime flow through the strait, perhaps in coordination with Oman. If any such deal is made, it would be fragile. US bases would remain in the region; US sanctions on Iran would remain.

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