One by one, China is picking off iron ore majors – and the response so far has been to call it business as usual.
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The cost of allowing Beijing’s coercion to continue is twofold. Iron ore is expected to earn around $116 billion this financial year, underwriting a budget already under strain. Unfavourable contracts erode that revenue quietly. Coercion that meets no resistance also expands. Australia’s miners hold real leverage, even with Beijing’s attempts to diversify.
iron ore imports. If China can strong-arm them without resistance, it will expand its demands on Australia.
While necessary, these moves will prompt Beijing to retaliate, and Australia needs to be ready to endure, not escalate. Using the same tactics that prevailed last time, Canberra needs to maintain a principled position on the issue, avoid responding to new impediments with countermeasures, and provide Beijing an off-ramp.
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Regional partners need to see the restraint. Australia must protect its regional standing by managing neighbours’ concerns.
that it is too confrontational with Beijing. This can be done by absorbing retaliation, which shows China to be the irresponsible actor and Australia to be simply defending its rights.
Collectively, these efforts build the leverage and support needed to endure. Beijing will test Canberra's resolve, and it will hurt. But Australia has endured worse and emerged stronger. The alternative is to cede gains made since 2020 and accept the erosion of Australia's willingness to defend its own.
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