c/collapse · by fake_meows@sopuli.xyz · 32d

Failure to track a stable AMOC state under rapid climate change

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-026-02730-w

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a tipping element of the climate system, currently has an estimated global warming threshold for collapse when +4.0 °C is reached. However, such a threshold may not be meaningful because AMOC stability depends more on the speed of annual climate change, not reaching a set temperature. The AMOC will collapse at just 2.5° if the warming is increasing as fast as the real world rates.

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fake_meows@sopuli.xyz · 4 pts · 32d

we conclude that the AMOC collapse observed under faster CO2 ramps and higher RCP scenarios is rate-induced: it occurs because the warming rate exceeds a critical threshold, without the global warming level crossing a critical threshold.

According to the Bflux indicator, as determined in CMIP6 models, the AMOC starts to collapse around +2.5 °C warming at projected warming rates, which could be reached around the year 2060