TIL about Benner's Cycle - a predictive pattern created by an Ohian farmer in 1872 that tried to predict economic boom and bust cycles between 1873 and 2059

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benner%27s_cycle

For the most part the predicted market peaks and troughs are pretty accurate. This is more of a statistical analysis (using past numbers to predict future behavior) than a Nostradamus getting high and pulling predictions out of his ass.

But still, there's a degree of confirmation bias influencing the believers (and conversely instinctive skepticism affecting doubters) that come into okay.

Either way, I think it's an interesting tidbit from the past.

83 points · 9 comments · view on lemmy.world

9 Comments

HubertManne@piefed.social · 17 pts · 18d (6 replies)

certainly got 2026 wrong.

StillAlive@piefed.world · 8 pts · 18d (2 replies)

But was bang on for 2019

HubertManne@piefed.social · 8 pts · 18d

which it should not be able to predict given its a plague.

Sineljora@sh.itjust.works · 3 pts · 18d

I would say the banking crisis of 2019 right before COVID counts.

zout@fedia.io · 5 pts · 18d (1 reply)

Are you sure about that? I don't really follow stock markets, but from the news I gather a lot of people are making a lot of money. Mostly from inside trading, but the cycle says nothing about ethics.

HubertManne@piefed.social · 5 pts · 18d

yeah I was kinda thinking about that. does not necessarily say healthy market.

icanbrewmushrooms@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 17d

2008 too

affenlehrer@feddit.org · 6 pts · 18d

I think most of the models work well as long everyone believes in them and nobody tries to exploit them.

starlinguk@lemmy.world · 0 pts · 18d

The pig cycle? That's what I learned it was called.