PNW power crunch starts with AI. The bigger challenge may come after

The region could need between 40% and 100% more electricity in the next two decades, according to the Northwest Power and Conservation Council, a power-planning body for Washington, Oregon, Idaho and Montana, which published a draft plan last month for the region’s power build-out.

It’s a huge range, more than 10 times wider than Seattle’s average electricity use.

“The level of uncertainty associated with the load forecast in this plan is much greater than it’s ever been,” said KC Golden, a Washington representative on the council.

Data centers are the biggest driver of uncertainty. They could be the largest or the smallest of the region’s new major loads, and they’re expected to arrive first, which some worry could allow them first dibs on scarce grid infrastructure.

But the bigger grid challenge may come after, as the region electrifies vehicles and buildings. Their arrival is slower and more predictable, but they need energy in concentrated bursts, a challenge that grid operators haven’t yet figured out how they’ll handle.

Utilities won’t have the luxury of waiting for those questions to be answered before they start building. And they face huge consequences if they get it wrong.

Build too little and risk outages. Build too much and waste ratepayers’ money at a time affordability concerns are spiking. Build the wrong kind and you could have both problems.

“We are at another junction in history when some very expensive and potentially controversial decisions are going to be made on the public’s behalf and on the public’s dime,” Golden said.