Belarusian leader confirms arrival of exiled Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/27/belarus-exiled-wagner-chief-yevgeny-prigozhin-russia-ukraine?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
65 points · 19 comments · view on lemmy.world
19 Comments
jonirenicus2@lemmy.ml · 5 pts · 3y
I wonder if theres a bookie who specialises in the untimely demise of Putin-affiliate people - then I wonder what Prigozhin's odds are.
cxtinac@sh.itjust.works · 1 pts · 3y
Ha, I'd rather take odds on Lukashenko "falling from a window" - I seem to remember he was reported as "seriously ill" a few weeks ago, plus if I remember Putin was pressuring him to attack Ukraine, and he refused.
Get rid of L. and Putin can install Prigo. and they will work together on Ukraine. Scary.
flip@lemmy.nbsp.one · 8 pts · 3y
In my opinion, Prigozhin is done. How would you envision Putin installing Prigozhin anywhere and save face?
cxtinac@sh.itjust.works · 0 pts · 3y
Yeah you may be right, I even hope you're right. But I don't think Putin cares about saving face in the west.
I would guess his biggest challenge would be keeping the Belorussian people in line. I know little about the country, I should probably read up!
flip@lemmy.nbsp.one · 1 pts · 3y
I do not think he wants to save face in the west, but within Russia itself. But who knows 🤷
cxtinac@sh.itjust.works · 0 pts · 3y
That's exactly right. I imagine Putin & his lackeys are very busy indeed right now. Just I would definitely not count him out like many articles seem to be.
Edit: spelling
cxtinac@sh.itjust.works · 4 pts · 3y
To comment on my own link, I still think (per comments elsewhere), that right from the get-go this is a 3-way play orchestrated by Putin to get a strong fight-ready leader on his western flank, and north of Ukraine.
I do not think it has much at all to do with a coup or exile.
pinwurm@lemmy.world · 13 pts · 3y
Experts are saying that’s unlikely, though. Why ruin the credibility of the Ministry of Defense if they needed a strong leader? Especially one that’s openly criticized the war to begin with. Pretty bad for morale.
If anything, we’ve learned Putin has a lot less orchestral than expected.
Paramilitary private armies are expensive and unpredictable. And technically illegal under Russian law.
At a time when resources are tight and public trust in government is flaky, it’s makes sense for Putin to consolidate Wagner into the Russian army.
Prigozhin isn’t a brilliant military strategist (to be fair, neither is Shoigu). He’s a businessman who earned $2B through Wagner milking State money. The dissolution of Wagner is the end of that revenue stream, and possibly his own life.
IMO, it seems to me like the mutiny is a last ditch negotiating tactic or emotional outburst as a response to losing his livelihood.
Or.. we’ll learn in the coming months and years that there’s a lot more to this story.
cxtinac@sh.itjust.works · 2 pts · 3y
Fair enough, I couldn't disagree at all.
Would be wonderful to sneak a peak at a historical analysis from ++50yrs: either it's Putin's masterstroke, or he's struggling to tamp down prima donna Prigohzin with his buddy Lukashenko's help. Occam's razor would certainly point to the latter.
Rinox@feddit.it · 10 pts · 3y
Doubt it, any military buildup would be spotted weeks before any possible "surprise offensive" were to take place. It's one of the most monitored borders in the world afterall.
pinwurm@lemmy.world · 6 pts · 3y
Indeed. People forget that that satellites exist and it’s not very easy to hide traveling military equipment and troops.
Months before the war, every news outlet was warning about a buildup on the Russian border.
cxtinac@sh.itjust.works · 0 pts · 3y
Good point, but Putin plays the long game, I suspect this is strategic manoeuvring for 12-18 months from now.
Rob@lemmy.world · 6 pts · 3y
Every analysis I’ve read from reputable sources have come to the conclusion that this was bad for Putin. I think I’ll stick to Occam’s razor on this one.
Nobody@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 3y
The problem with this theory is that if it was orchestrated, Putin would not have ran away. He would have made a public showing about staying in Moscow and protecting everyone like Zelenskyy did in Kiev. Fleeing to his bunker was a terrible, cowardly look and would have only been done if he thought he was in actual jeopardy.
Screak42@lemmy.ml · 1 pts · 3y
yea. the whole thing smells like a dead fish in sun.
midas@ymmel.nl · 2 pts · 3y
Wonder who is going to kill Ukrainian children now
Rinox@feddit.it · 6 pts · 3y
I don't believe he was the only one. Far from it sadly
Corvid@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 3y
I sure hope he stays away from any open windows.