At the end of every year, we give our AGI, ASI, and Singularity predictions.
We are now halfway through the year, and I think we should jump the gun a little bit and give our predictions.
Back on December 30, 2022, I said AGI 2030, ASI 2040, Singularity 2050. This is most probably going to age like milk.
Today, on July 1, 2023, I will say AGI 2028, ASI 2035, Singularity 2036.
What are your AGI, ASI, and Singularity predictions? Also, let us know if your timelines have shrunk in the last 6 months.
9 Comments
InternetPirate@lemmy.fmhy.ml · 2 pts · 3y
18/Jul/2025 - Date predicted by GPT-4 based on the table
Roadmap: AI’s next big steps in the world – Dr Alan D. Thompson
InternetPirate@lemmy.fmhy.ml · 2 pts · 3y
David Shapiro (expert on artificial cognitive architecture) predicts "AGI within 18 months"
InternetPirate@lemmy.fmhy.ml · 2 pts · 3y
Dr. Alan Thompson on Kurzweil and the singularity: "to happen possibly in the next few months, not 5 or 10 years"
InternetPirate@lemmy.fmhy.ml · 2 pts · 3y
26/12/2032 Metaculus - When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Luovahulluus@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 3y
What's the definition of singularity you are using here?
Martineski@lemmy.fmhy.ml · 1 pts · 3y
He means the name of the sub because reddit singularity sub does annual predicting arrival of AGI and ASI. But even then we need a solid definition of AGI and ASI before making those predictions makes any sense.
And technological singularity means this: "The technological singularity—or simply the singularity[1]—is a hypothetical future point in time at which technological growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible, resulting in unforeseeable changes to human civilization.[2][3] According to the most popular version of the singularity hypothesis, I. J. Good's intelligence explosion model, an upgradable intelligent agent will eventually enter a "runaway reaction" of self-improvement cycles, each new and more intelligent generation appearing more and more rapidly, causing an "explosion" in intelligence and resulting in a powerful superintelligence that qualitatively far surpasses all human intelligence.[4]"