Sir please try to think harder, "we can keep explaining it to you, but we can't understand it for you". What data are you looking at where fossil fuel use is shrinking as a total quantity being burned each year which is the relevant metric for the biosphere.
If I eat 1 cookie on day one and +1 cookie extra with each day so that on day 30 I eat 30 cookies per day and keep ramping up , it don't matter if the total weight of my broccoli intake is going up 2 grams per day from a base of 1 gram per day . The cookies will still wreck me
the article is worth a read for the financial aspects of chip fab and mask production and how we will be reaching another plateau in the next decade where more progress is not possible from the economics . we end up requiring some major breakthroughs to push further whereas before we were still squeezing big gains each chip generation in performance, once that ends it changes things . there are a few paths we could take on chips that might workout when all combined but its just as likely we stagnate at that level for decades and software has to stop bloating as well. so the advanced chips are good enough for almost everything practical at this point and there are people making chips at home that are as good as 90s intel chips supposedly , if people use super efficient linux distros its possible to have some sort of neo retro homebrew computer clubs with mesh networking even if the system goes down. , potentially.
While I'm all for funding science , we kind of know what the option space is for energy, and sometimes you can't innovate your way out of situations, sometimes that magical energy saviour doesn't appear , and sometimes the solution is just being a more sane society. One example I always give , make mixed use neighborhoods legal , if you made grocery trips walkable in every city it could be billions less fossil fuels consumed per year . If you banned advertising people might consume billions tons less etc... but people will cling to a dead branch in history and end up dead because of it.
Horses don't produce the energy of one locamotive, also locamotives don't produce energy. They both consume energy and convert it to work, your whole framing is confused.
I'm all the way down in Virginia and the smoke from the Canadian wildfires was so bad that I woke up from sleeping with the windows open and legit thought I was about to suffocate from breathing that shit in my sleep for 6 hours . I didn't know it was going to blow in. Get a hepa filter for wherever you stay. Mine clogged up in three days from the smoke unfortunately it was off that night I slept with the windows open.
this experiment is stuff we've known in detail for at least 40+ years. the only things that really hold carbon humus long term is cold and/or anerobic conditions.
It seems like this world full of imbeciles would leave lots of openings for smart people to maneuver, but unfortunately idiots just still get put in positions of power where they can hire other idiots until the whole civilization stops functioning.
Reading about this from what sources I can find it's actually more ambiguous whether or not they are profitable . It looks like they are profitable per token if you ignore the continuing R&D and capex for the next model . So they will probably be able to operate unsubsidized if they get their costs low enough some will survive. Chatgpt sol just dropped with relatively high efficiency per unit of intelligence while they were getting smoked by anthropic in real world utility but by anthropic really getting intelligence through much more brute force and thus much more extreme cost per token , which shows people will pay high costs per token for the utility they get from it , but at some point you have to compete on efficiency and input costs .
The Chinese models are really efficient. If they keep dropping open source weights by 2030 we will surely have open source models as good as mythos which I would say is good enough for 99% of people. After that its pure commodity inference purchase x efficiency of the model . Maybe not a capitalist goldmine, but the end result is useful and if we get enough capacity expansion in chips and memory the deficit will turn into a glut and mythos grade home systems will be viable for power users a few years after that
its crazy how fast the end of the internet has accelerated. It got to the point i started learning to code last september now that i can get taught directly by AI. Hopefully i can build some useful tools for keeping a wild west alive in cyberspace. Have to use the AI tools available now because they are already leaning towards a 2 tiered system where good coding AI is no longer available to the plebians and i suspect the "subsidized by investor" plans will not last much longer. there are open source models that can do syntax well but they still have crazy hardware requirements. so best to use the shit out of it for making the software we need now before it becomes cost prohibitive or outright removed from public access. the new anthropic model is fully incapable of coding now without triggering the government mandated shutdown. can't get it to even do a code review without triggering the terrorist suspect shutdown. the screeching about 4 horseman of the infocalypse are upon us again.
"I didn’t want to waste another minute of my life writing academic articles that nobody, not even the peer reviewers, really wanted to read. I didn’t want to spend another minute writing reports for deans who would rather go to wine tastings in the middle of the afternoon. I didn’t want to spend another Friday stuck in an endless department meeting, talking about problems nobody was ever going to do anything about. I didn’t want to spend another weekend grading papers that students didn’t want to write, and I didn’t want to read. Not because they were bad papers. Because there were other things we needed to be doing. There were other things my students needed to be learning."
This is probably like 80% of all jobs. its all just a boondoggle hierarchy of cruelty and waste.
There will be world food price crisis regardless of the biofuel part of the problem. We already have the inflation pushing through to food in a big way , its just about what percent of the economically marginal population get pushed below the threshold from the input costs rising and lots of production being fuel/fertilizer constrained in this growing season
Inb4 elites solve global warming with nuclear winter
Sir please try to think harder, "we can keep explaining it to you, but we can't understand it for you". What data are you looking at where fossil fuel use is shrinking as a total quantity being burned each year which is the relevant metric for the biosphere.
If I eat 1 cookie on day one and +1 cookie extra with each day so that on day 30 I eat 30 cookies per day and keep ramping up , it don't matter if the total weight of my broccoli intake is going up 2 grams per day from a base of 1 gram per day . The cookies will still wreck me
A shrinking percent is not a shrinking total amount when energy use is climbing faster than the shrink . We are using MORE fossil fuels each year
Dropped 1% every two years is pretty good , in 200 years we will be weaned off the ff /s
Another way to look at it is we used the most fossil fuels of any year in history in 2025 with the total energy use increase
the article is worth a read for the financial aspects of chip fab and mask production and how we will be reaching another plateau in the next decade where more progress is not possible from the economics . we end up requiring some major breakthroughs to push further whereas before we were still squeezing big gains each chip generation in performance, once that ends it changes things . there are a few paths we could take on chips that might workout when all combined but its just as likely we stagnate at that level for decades and software has to stop bloating as well. so the advanced chips are good enough for almost everything practical at this point and there are people making chips at home that are as good as 90s intel chips supposedly , if people use super efficient linux distros its possible to have some sort of neo retro homebrew computer clubs with mesh networking even if the system goes down. , potentially.
While I'm all for funding science , we kind of know what the option space is for energy, and sometimes you can't innovate your way out of situations, sometimes that magical energy saviour doesn't appear , and sometimes the solution is just being a more sane society. One example I always give , make mixed use neighborhoods legal , if you made grocery trips walkable in every city it could be billions less fossil fuels consumed per year . If you banned advertising people might consume billions tons less etc... but people will cling to a dead branch in history and end up dead because of it.
Horses don't produce the energy of one locamotive, also locamotives don't produce energy. They both consume energy and convert it to work, your whole framing is confused.
What's currently above 50:1?
I'm all the way down in Virginia and the smoke from the Canadian wildfires was so bad that I woke up from sleeping with the windows open and legit thought I was about to suffocate from breathing that shit in my sleep for 6 hours . I didn't know it was going to blow in. Get a hepa filter for wherever you stay. Mine clogged up in three days from the smoke unfortunately it was off that night I slept with the windows open.
this experiment is stuff we've known in detail for at least 40+ years. the only things that really hold carbon humus long term is cold and/or anerobic conditions.
me thinks there will be MORE society not less in the apocalypse
What browser do you use?
It seems like this world full of imbeciles would leave lots of openings for smart people to maneuver, but unfortunately idiots just still get put in positions of power where they can hire other idiots until the whole civilization stops functioning.
Reading about this from what sources I can find it's actually more ambiguous whether or not they are profitable . It looks like they are profitable per token if you ignore the continuing R&D and capex for the next model . So they will probably be able to operate unsubsidized if they get their costs low enough some will survive. Chatgpt sol just dropped with relatively high efficiency per unit of intelligence while they were getting smoked by anthropic in real world utility but by anthropic really getting intelligence through much more brute force and thus much more extreme cost per token , which shows people will pay high costs per token for the utility they get from it , but at some point you have to compete on efficiency and input costs . The Chinese models are really efficient. If they keep dropping open source weights by 2030 we will surely have open source models as good as mythos which I would say is good enough for 99% of people. After that its pure commodity inference purchase x efficiency of the model . Maybe not a capitalist goldmine, but the end result is useful and if we get enough capacity expansion in chips and memory the deficit will turn into a glut and mythos grade home systems will be viable for power users a few years after that
its crazy how fast the end of the internet has accelerated. It got to the point i started learning to code last september now that i can get taught directly by AI. Hopefully i can build some useful tools for keeping a wild west alive in cyberspace. Have to use the AI tools available now because they are already leaning towards a 2 tiered system where good coding AI is no longer available to the plebians and i suspect the "subsidized by investor" plans will not last much longer. there are open source models that can do syntax well but they still have crazy hardware requirements. so best to use the shit out of it for making the software we need now before it becomes cost prohibitive or outright removed from public access. the new anthropic model is fully incapable of coding now without triggering the government mandated shutdown. can't get it to even do a code review without triggering the terrorist suspect shutdown. the screeching about 4 horseman of the infocalypse are upon us again.
Rain barrels have very little water compared to any substantial garden needs. An acre needs like 8000 gallons a day.
"I didn’t want to waste another minute of my life writing academic articles that nobody, not even the peer reviewers, really wanted to read. I didn’t want to spend another minute writing reports for deans who would rather go to wine tastings in the middle of the afternoon. I didn’t want to spend another Friday stuck in an endless department meeting, talking about problems nobody was ever going to do anything about. I didn’t want to spend another weekend grading papers that students didn’t want to write, and I didn’t want to read. Not because they were bad papers. Because there were other things we needed to be doing. There were other things my students needed to be learning."
This is probably like 80% of all jobs. its all just a boondoggle hierarchy of cruelty and waste.
https://old.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/1u5ku71/teachers_of_reddit_is_the_gen_alpha_cant_read/ hate to link reddit here but this thread about how retarded kids are now is apocalyptic
There will be world food price crisis regardless of the biofuel part of the problem. We already have the inflation pushing through to food in a big way , its just about what percent of the economically marginal population get pushed below the threshold from the input costs rising and lots of production being fuel/fertilizer constrained in this growing season
Im not banned so far as i can tell. let me know if you see this