@mr_washee_washee Delaying the technologies that we know work, continuing to dig up more fossil fuels, and giving it a veneer of credibility by funding more research is a classic delayer tactic. Delay being a stage of denial.
@mr_washee_washee Either way, the technologies already exist and need to be deployed rapidly.
The alternative is burning more fossil fuels.
Which is both more expensive and *vastly* more dangerous. We need rapid progress towards sustainability, because it's the *total* carbon emitted that matters.
Emissions must peak by 2025 at the latest (in fact they must peak as soon as possible). The UK, for instance, has agreed to reduce its emissions by 68% by 2030 (compared to 1990), a target that it will almost certainly miss according to the last CCC report.
@mr_washee_washee I've seen people argue that nuclear actually has the lowest material requirement overall. I'm not entirely convinced by that argument though!
By all means reduce the number of cars, but some of the things we will need to do to achieve that will take significant time - especially fixing housing and building more rail.
However there will still be vehicles, even if they are only buses.
@mr_washee_washee How do you propose to balance the grid without wind?
Solar panels are indeed mostly silicon, but they're not entirely made of silicon. They also use "minor metals" (indium, gallium etc) in smaller quantities. They certainly use copper, steel and aluminium.
The inverter for a solar panel might contain rare earths. The big ones for long range HVDC interconnectors very likely do.
Whatever we build will involve some amount of mining.
However given the enormous cost of the status quo, renewables are a step forward.
In any case digging up fossil fuels is also pretty dirty, and has been known to pollute indigenous people's drinking water, steal their land, and on occasion pay for private militias and government troops to put down protests.
Obviously electric buses are preferable to electric cars. Public transport is worth investing in.
Also on batteries, iron-air is promising for grid storage, but not likely to be used for vehicles.
The problem with sodium ion batteries, apart from lower density, is that they have a shorter lifespan. On the upside they're easier to recycle. IIRC there was some recent research that might fix the lifespan problem.
@Ardubal@MattMastodon@BrianSmith950@Pampa@AlexisFR@Wirrvogel@Sodis There is also the near-absolute worst case scenario where outdoor agriculture becomes untenable due to wildly inconsistent post-climate weather and the "land sharing vs land sparing" debate is forced down the land sparing route, i.e. if most food can only be grown in heated greenhouses, we'll need vast amounts of energy. In that scenario we may well need more nuclear. But if it's that bad that fast I have my doubts that civilisation can survive the transition; that sort of agriculture is very capital intensive as well as energy intensive, although it is higher yield and makes space for rewilding, and potentially could be our only option if things get really bad.
PS I am not endorsing climate controlled indoor agriculture here. I don't have a clear view on the land sharing vs land sparing thing. I know which side most "degrowth" people would take though.
@Ardubal@MattMastodon@BrianSmith950@Pampa@AlexisFR@Wirrvogel@Sodis Also I expect demand to drop somewhat in the long term. Unfortunately the more serious degrowth measures will take decades, and the peak demand from heating and EVs means we will need a lot more electricity in 2040 than we have today.
Also, hopefully longer term we move towards more rooftop solar rather than farm scale, though of course the amount of land used by solar is insignificant. Short term, farm scale is easy to install; long term, rooftop could be a requirement of construction.
Just as important, once we reach 95%+ renewable electricity, the ecological cost of building new stuff, whether recycled or not, drops dramatically.
Do we want to move towards more nuclear in the long run? Maybe so. On the other hand, the cost of renewables will continue to come down, and it's reasonable to expect the same is true of storage.
Ultimately this is determined by how much we can build of each technology by the deadline (which ideally is 2030 or 2035). If we can scale up iron-air fast, that'd be great, but there's a lot of uncertainty there. But this also applies to nuclear: How much new nuclear we can build by 2035 is probably quite limited. Whether hydrogen can be significant on that timescale, and whether leaks can be managed, is another big question.
It's worth trying all the plausible technologies (i.e. other than biofuels and fossil+CCS).
PS "volatiles" *already* make up over 30% of the UK's generated kWh. 😀 So I expect a higher figure.
IMHO the only thing that matters more than the ecological impact of the transition is the *speed* of the transition. Because that determines total carbon emitted. And it determines the carbon intensity of the rest of the transition.
@Ardubal@MattMastodon@BrianSmith950@Pampa@AlexisFR@Wirrvogel@Sodis Sadly it is much easier to build an extra 10GW of peak gas plant than it is to build an extra 10GW of nuclear plant. The tradeoff is of course that the gas plant is inefficient and therefore extremely expensive per unit generated (but not used very often). Not to mention destroying the planet.
But that is how we largely managed it in the past.
In the future, and even the present, fortunately we have better options.
Nowadays we have diesel farms (eeek!), and increasingly (thankfully!) batteries.
The actual UK grid today is only 45% fossil fuel (and some nations and states are better than that). We also have more interconnectors than we had in the past.
UK nuclear has generally been used as baseload for many decades.
It's not just the UK. Every third gen PWR has taken way longer than expected.
The public rightly insist on the safest designs possible. And those at least have been tried once (generally only once!). However, they take a long time.
Right now, renewables essentially build themselves. They do not require a state subsidy - the "contract for difference" level is set at roughly the wholesale price of electricity.
Whereas no nuclear is ever built without massive state involvement.
Not that that's bad. We need more state intervention in e.g. insulation. But it's slow. We can't afford to stop installing renewables now on the basis of a few reactors that may well be cancelled by a future government.
@mr_washee_washee Delaying the technologies that we know work, continuing to dig up more fossil fuels, and giving it a veneer of credibility by funding more research is a classic delayer tactic. Delay being a stage of denial.
@mr_washee_washee Either way, the technologies already exist and need to be deployed rapidly.
The alternative is burning more fossil fuels.
Which is both more expensive and *vastly* more dangerous. We need rapid progress towards sustainability, because it's the *total* carbon emitted that matters.
Emissions must peak by 2025 at the latest (in fact they must peak as soon as possible). The UK, for instance, has agreed to reduce its emissions by 68% by 2030 (compared to 1990), a target that it will almost certainly miss according to the last CCC report.
@mr_washee_washee I've seen people argue that nuclear actually has the lowest material requirement overall. I'm not entirely convinced by that argument though!
By all means reduce the number of cars, but some of the things we will need to do to achieve that will take significant time - especially fixing housing and building more rail.
However there will still be vehicles, even if they are only buses.
@mr_washee_washee How do you propose to balance the grid without wind?
Solar panels are indeed mostly silicon, but they're not entirely made of silicon. They also use "minor metals" (indium, gallium etc) in smaller quantities. They certainly use copper, steel and aluminium.
The inverter for a solar panel might contain rare earths. The big ones for long range HVDC interconnectors very likely do.
Whatever we build will involve some amount of mining.
However given the enormous cost of the status quo, renewables are a step forward.
@mr_washee_washee @suodrazah So do wind farms. Are you opposed to them too?
@rm_dash_r_star @notapantsday Unfortunately batteries with nickel are still pretty widely used. However it's definitely going in the right direction.
https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023/trends-in-batteries
In any case digging up fossil fuels is also pretty dirty, and has been known to pollute indigenous people's drinking water, steal their land, and on occasion pay for private militias and government troops to put down protests.
Obviously electric buses are preferable to electric cars. Public transport is worth investing in.
Also on batteries, iron-air is promising for grid storage, but not likely to be used for vehicles.
@rm_dash_r_star @notapantsday Is LMFP actually available in quantity? Wikipedia suggests not.
The problem with sodium ion batteries, apart from lower density, is that they have a shorter lifespan. On the upside they're easier to recycle. IIRC there was some recent research that might fix the lifespan problem.
@Ardubal @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis There is also the near-absolute worst case scenario where outdoor agriculture becomes untenable due to wildly inconsistent post-climate weather and the "land sharing vs land sparing" debate is forced down the land sparing route, i.e. if most food can only be grown in heated greenhouses, we'll need vast amounts of energy. In that scenario we may well need more nuclear. But if it's that bad that fast I have my doubts that civilisation can survive the transition; that sort of agriculture is very capital intensive as well as energy intensive, although it is higher yield and makes space for rewilding, and potentially could be our only option if things get really bad.
PS I am not endorsing climate controlled indoor agriculture here. I don't have a clear view on the land sharing vs land sparing thing. I know which side most "degrowth" people would take though.
@Ardubal @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis Also I expect demand to drop somewhat in the long term. Unfortunately the more serious degrowth measures will take decades, and the peak demand from heating and EVs means we will need a lot more electricity in 2040 than we have today.
@Ardubal @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis Fortunately we will have time to work on that. There is plenty of existing renewable plant coming to the end of its service life for us to work on recycling.
Also, hopefully longer term we move towards more rooftop solar rather than farm scale, though of course the amount of land used by solar is insignificant. Short term, farm scale is easy to install; long term, rooftop could be a requirement of construction.
Just as important, once we reach 95%+ renewable electricity, the ecological cost of building new stuff, whether recycled or not, drops dramatically.
Do we want to move towards more nuclear in the long run? Maybe so. On the other hand, the cost of renewables will continue to come down, and it's reasonable to expect the same is true of storage.
@Ardubal @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis Well if we're ruling out long term storage (iron-air batteries and hydrogen), maybe 30-40% nuclear, 80% renewables (intentionally over 100%), and a fair bit of lithium storage?
Ultimately this is determined by how much we can build of each technology by the deadline (which ideally is 2030 or 2035). If we can scale up iron-air fast, that'd be great, but there's a lot of uncertainty there. But this also applies to nuclear: How much new nuclear we can build by 2035 is probably quite limited. Whether hydrogen can be significant on that timescale, and whether leaks can be managed, is another big question.
It's worth trying all the plausible technologies (i.e. other than biofuels and fossil+CCS).
PS "volatiles" *already* make up over 30% of the UK's generated kWh. 😀 So I expect a higher figure.
IMHO the only thing that matters more than the ecological impact of the transition is the *speed* of the transition. Because that determines total carbon emitted. And it determines the carbon intensity of the rest of the transition.
@Ardubal @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis Sadly it is much easier to build an extra 10GW of peak gas plant than it is to build an extra 10GW of nuclear plant. The tradeoff is of course that the gas plant is inefficient and therefore extremely expensive per unit generated (but not used very often). Not to mention destroying the planet.
But that is how we largely managed it in the past.
In the future, and even the present, fortunately we have better options.
@Ardubal @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis The fossil fuel grid we had 20 years ago relied on gas peak plants and hydro for peaks.
Nowadays we have diesel farms (eeek!), and increasingly (thankfully!) batteries.
The actual UK grid today is only 45% fossil fuel (and some nations and states are better than that). We also have more interconnectors than we had in the past.
UK nuclear has generally been used as baseload for many decades.
@Ardubal @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis Do you have figures for a modern PWR? Any modern PWR, and specifically EPR1000, since we're likely stuck with that?
In any case, you still need storage, because you won't be able to build capacity to peak demand.
@Ardubal @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis Nuclear does not avoid the need for short-term storage to cover the peaks, unless you can build vast amounts of it (equal to peak).
Nuclear *does* avoid the need for long-term storage, if you can build enough of it (equal to average).
@Ardubal @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis Can you name *one* nuclear project in the last 20 years in Europe that wasn't severely over-budget and severely delayed?
It's not just the UK. Every third gen PWR has taken way longer than expected.
The public rightly insist on the safest designs possible. And those at least have been tried once (generally only once!). However, they take a long time.
@Ardubal @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis That graph includes some huge deployments of wind, and today, it's a mature, cheap technology (though still improving). Same with solar.
On the timescale on which the historic installs occurred, that was not the case: nuclear and hydro were the only mature options.
@Ardubal @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis I do not understand your diagrams - which curve is the EPR on?
Realistically we'll have to build more EPRs. There isn't time to try more designs out.
@Ardubal @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis Sure, 80s French reactors can. As I understand it, modern PWRs can vary load but relatively slowly.
And in any case it is highly unlikely that we will be able to match *peak* demand with nuclear capacity.
You at least need significant intra-day storage.
@Ardubal @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis Second generation reactor designs that would never be built today. Vulnerable to climate change because they were built on rivers. Also, Britain is not France.
Right now, renewables essentially build themselves. They do not require a state subsidy - the "contract for difference" level is set at roughly the wholesale price of electricity.
Whereas no nuclear is ever built without massive state involvement.
Not that that's bad. We need more state intervention in e.g. insulation. But it's slow. We can't afford to stop installing renewables now on the basis of a few reactors that may well be cancelled by a future government.