In this election there won't be any % barrier in some countries, but I still haven't seen any poll numbers for small parties here in Germany for example. Everything below 2-3% gets lumped in with "Others" as usual, even though about 0.5% would already get them a seat in parliament this time. This makes voting strategically very difficult, because we have no idea whether any small party could even get in.
I get that there are limits to what you can show in a graphic, but even the source links I checked didn't provide more details. Why is that, and has anyone seen poll numbers for small parties, particularly for Germany?
11 Comments
Gieselbrecht@feddit.de · 14 pts · 2y
The problem is that small vote shares in a survey are not reliably measured when you consider measurement uncertainty. It makes sense to not include very low shares to avoid an unwarranted impression of accuracy.
5ymm3trY@discuss.tchncs.de · 5 pts · 2y
That's the right answer. I couldn't find a poll that explicitly states it on my quick search, but if I am not mistaken I saw a poll in TV lately that showed an uncertainty of about 2-3%. It just makes no sense to list parties that are below that value.
EarMaster@lemmy.world · 3 pts · 2y
You are correct. Most of these polls only have 1000 to 2000 participants.
PonyOfWar@pawb.social · 4 pts · 2y
Some of the polls on wahlrecht.de include the smaller parties. The latest one that does is from march though, unfortunately.
anzo@programming.dev · 4 pts · 2y
Perhaps those small % are more 'volatile' and prone to change? That would motivate hiding or lumping everyone altogether under 'Others'
misk@sopuli.xyz · 3 pts · 2y
Gobbel2000@programming.dev · 2 pts · 2y
I would say for whether or not your vote really counts it doesn't matter if the party has 20.5% or 0.5%. Each vote counts the same towards the next seat, which may be the first or the twentieth. So I would encourage everyone to vote small parties (except for the crazy ones).
nudnyekscentryk@szmer.info · 1 pts · 2y
0.5% gets you seats in German system?
PonyOfWar@pawb.social · 5 pts · 2y
Yes, but this is the final European election without a threshold in Germany.
vzq@lemmy.blahaj.zone · 0 pts · 2y
No, you need a bit more than a percent to get a seat, given proportional representation:
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/infographic/meps-seats/index_en.html
I’m not sure how the apportionment of remaining seats is performed in Germany and whether it’s a EU standard or up to the states, but in NL you need at least one full seat to be eligible for additional ones based on fractional seats.
https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/onderwerpen/verkiezingen/vraag-en-antwoord/hoe-werkt-de-zetelverdeling-na-de-verkiezingen
I couldn’t find an equivalent German page.
PonyOfWar@pawb.social · 3 pts · 2y
In Germany, you can get a seat with less than 1%. In the last election, ÖDP got one with 0.6%. Not an expert on the electoral system, but I'd guess it's because Germany has more seats in the first place.
CyberEgg@discuss.tchncs.de · 3 pts · 2y
No, it's because there is no electoral threshold for EU elections in Germany. Every party with enough votes for a seat gets that seat (which is projected to be around 0.5% but depends on the total number of voters). Unfortunately, this is the last election without a threshold in Germany