Ken Paxton Is Acting Like He Thinks He Could Lose to James Talarico

“Tofu Talarico,” he said with a grin. The crowd erupted in laughter and applause. On a television nearby, Fox News played a clip of President Donald Trump speaking to reporters. “TRUMP: TEXANS WON’T ELECT A VEGAN,” read the chyron.

This, it seemed, was to be the central focus of Paxton’s campaign: the idea that Talarico, a former schoolteacher and Texas House member, was simply too much of a wimp to ever be elected in Texas. And in recent months, Republicans have lined up behind that strategy, releasing constant attacks that claim Talarico is vegan, implying that he is gay, or painting the Presbyterian seminarian as a heretical, open-borders, anti-cop extremist who is obsessed with transgender children. (Talarico eats meat and has a girlfriend; some of his comments have been deceptively edited but have gone viral in right-wing media.)

The strategy doesn’t seem to be working. Recent headlines about allegations that Paxton committed voter fraud, photos of him gallivanting in Europe with his girlfriend, and scrutiny of his expanding luxury real estate portfolio have largely overshadowed his attempts to frame Talarico and the race as he’d like. With three months until the November midterms, Talarico has a massive fundraising edge. And poll after poll shows that the race is somewhere between a toss-up and one that favors Talarico—on Thursday a stunning Fox News poll showed the Democrat leading by three points.

Voters are angry with Trump. They’re furious about gas prices, the economy, and the war with Iran. Not coincidentally, while Paxton has focused on hammering his opponent on culture-war issues, Talarico has made economic inequality a staple of his campaign.