Tuukka R

u/Tuuktuuk@mastodontti.fi
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@Mulligrubs @takeda

It did try to invade EU in 2014.
Pretty much the same flyers the Russia distributed in Donetsk and Luhansk were distributed in Daugavpils and Rēzekne at the se time. I remember how I started hearing really crazy shit from Russian-speakers of eastern Latvia. The Russia canceled that operation's Latvian part, but the fact that it went as far as to begin that operation is a very big thing.

It will try again, just in a different manner.

@Clent @Sunshine

ATACMS is old technology from, when? 1970's?

Would be surprising if 2020's technology was not better than half a century old technology. especially if it's designed by people who either were there to design Soviet Union's missiles or were trained by people who were. Because Ukraine is where most of Soviet rocket technology was always developed. And the Soviet rocket technology sure had many clever solutions to it!

@gegil @Sunshine

It would work for Russians. If the Russia was bombed that way, it would capitulate. That's how most people in that nation are.

Putin seems to really think that Ukrainians and Russians are the same, so he really assumes this will have the effect it would have on his own people and him.
He has successfully ruled his country this way and cannot fathom why it "still" hasn't brought the expected result.

@nesc

Afghan war was not deeply unpopular during its first 2 or 3 years. On its 10th year it was. Extremely. And now 75 times as many (in proportion) Russians are dying per decade as back then.

There's no way the Russian populace will put up with that if they need to move to conscription.

The Afghan war was too much for them. This is is as big as 75 Afghan wars at once.

The Russia will probably not fall, but they will 100% surely lose their ability to fight a large-scale war such as this.

@nesc

Yes.

And the amount of dead in the war the Russia is waging now is dramatically underreported inside the Russia. The same thing :)

But yeah, the amount of real deaths (that we know nowadays, not what USSR told back then) in Soviet Union's war in Afghanistan was 25 000 Soviets plus 60 000 Afghans on the side of USSR.

About 15 times as many Russians have died in this war in 4 years as that one back then in 10 years. And the Russia is half the size now compared to USSR back then.

@nesc

Absolutely, and Russians will be okay with them again.

But, they won't enlist as professional soldiers without a very substantial compensation. Once that becomes economically impossible and they need to fall back to ration cards, they can only get soldiers through conscription. And 70 000 conscripts at the relatively safe front in Afghanistan brought down Soviet Union. The 50% smaller Russia cannot survive 700 000 conscripts at a deadly front.

@nesc

I know Russians would choose that way.
They choose to live separate from reality.

But once you have no food on the table, you die. When you have no food in the table, it's irrelevant what you choose. The physical reality will start dictating the course of action.

Russians can want all the want. But in the end they'll have to bend to laws of physics.

@nesc

It doesn't matter if anyone cares or not.

When all commercial banks go bankrupt, there won't be much anything to call an economy left in the Russia.
Of course they can just print a _lot_ of money to bail out the banks, but then that has the consequences of printing a lot of money.

They can non-care as much as they want, but their economy will die anyway. And then they won't be able to pay their soldiers anymore. At which point it is bye-bye for the Russian occupation.

on Shut up science!! · c/science_memes · 1 pts · 284d

@CobblerScholar @atomicbocks

I had thought that when I'm as careful as I can be, I'm being as careful as a human can be. And then I learned through experience that my very careful was as low as a fraction of what muggles had as their baseline! That was extremely eye-opening, and after that I've been able to get far over what I had earlier thought was the best a human can do. Because I learned what a human mind is capable of!

You can't learn that through theory, only by experiencing it.