I don't like gambling. I worry about regulation driving it underground, though. I'd rather just see winnings taxed heavily, immediately and without exception or deduction. Invest it in social safety nets and it's effectively forcing the winners to share their loot with the most vulnerable of the people they're victimizing.
That doesn't really address people betting on horrible things and then making them happen.
Also "it will just go underground" is still kind of a win? The average person isn't going to navigate sketchy underground arrangements, but they'll find a slick website with good SEO.
Yeah, to a certain extent. The nice things about taxes is that they can be dialed up and down for effect. Complete, tax-free deregulation would obviously be crazy. 100% tax would pretty much be a ban and drive it all underground. Somewhere between 0 and 100, there's an equilibrium point. Also, conflict of interest should be regulated. I don't need police betting on how many gunshot victims there will be today.
Gambling, like a lot of other things, is a high dopamine reward behavior which can be fun recreationally but also lead to serious addictions. Prohibition-only approaches to things like this tend to just lead to it becoming a widespread source of funds for organized crime, and so I tend to favor a public health perspective which involves legalization with heavy regulation and taxation + behavioral health support as a part of a robust safety net.
That having been said, this to me is a strong indication that there are some things it should not be legal to bet on.
But also I'm also pretty sure that this is illegal under the Commodities Exchange Act already? So this feels like either a loophole in emphatic need of closing, or, more likely, the law just no longer fucking mattering under this administration because too many of the enforcers are corrupt.
Farmers want a way to sell their crops before harvest time to guarantee a certain price, so they're protected by unpredictable swings in price. A market is set up for commodity futures, so a speculator can take that deal, and maybe make a lot of money if the price she sets with the farmer is well below the actual market value. This is seen as a good thing because the farmer gets to reduce their risk, while someone else gets the opportunity to make money by taking that risk on the farmer's behalf.
This system expands like a cancer, so professional investors are soon buying derivatives on all kinds of things. Sometimes this is arguably good for the world, but many times it's just complex gambling, and it results in the housing-based financial collapse of 2007-08. Hedge funds and investment bankers manage to convince the regulators to let them keep the system as is, despite the crash.
Wall street pushes to allow random people with no financial power, no training, no knowledge to also be able to get involved with derivatives, because having idiots on the other side of their bets is great for their bottom lines. It's much easier to make money from some random person using an app than it is to make money off another professional investor.
Some clever person manages to reskin a gambling app as if it were an investment app, and allows people to "buy derivatives contracts" on just about anything. Nobody honestly believes that this is anything other than gambling. But, the regulators are all compromised and toothless, so now you can gamble on any of the 4 horsemen: war, famine, death or disease.
I mean I actually like derivatives for hedging. I used to get 6 year contracts for electricity prices for my business. They saved my ass during covid/ Russia war. Prices climbed so fucking high that power contract became a financial asset. I like the fact that I can insure my stock portfolio with put contracts, I like that I can generate some income selling call contracts, and yes sometimes I even do short term speculation with options. If it's good enough for Nancy Pelosi, it's good enough for me! that being said it has gone way to far and there should be way more regulations and oversight because it is just a big casino and robin hood would let a child buy calls if it could access the phone.
Please ban all online betting and only make it legal at places where you have to actually go there in person to do. Impulse gambling on smartphones and prediction markets are straight cancer to society.
People enjoy making wagers with friends and acquaintance. Gambling apps are highly addictive commercial products which have negative value to society. Ban them and shoot the owners and shareholders.
... and you would if you could, too... and Republicans... and then the religious... and then Independents... and so on... and that's why we don't trust you with anything more than a scooter. NO LICENSE FOR YOU
well because a lot of the wagers are easily manipulated by the same insiders who own the platform? No ones stopping you from betting with your pals. We don't want a fake rigged market place that's a black hole of money.
Insiders and wagers go hand in hand, that's all part of the odds.
It's not a "fake rigged market place" OR the stock market is also a "fake rigged market place".
...and anti-gambling laws lead to lots of "stopping you from betting with your pals", for example see all of human history, pick an era. Police don't need a lot of incentive to seize all of your assets, it doesn't matter. This is just another excuse to do so
Ur telling me rich people write laws to relieve you of your assets? Oh no how long has this been happening?! One might say that legalizing polymarket was one of these actions. One might argue you should’ve never been allowed onto such a platform in the first place.
Either way I want every person alive to know the names and faces of anyone that put money on it.
But unfortunately I know that won't happen, especially when the chief in diaper himself is willing to bomb an elementary school full of kids to distract people from the fact he diddled kids from active warzones and destabilised countries
There's always someone on the other side of these bets. How is it that people keep betting on things like this when they know that insiders like this are the ones they're sometimes betting against?
The point is this bullshit market can influence decisions, like whether to have a nuclear strike on Iran -you think a Trump family member would not try to cash in on that?
The purpose is to give incentive to knowledgeable parties to let us know up front. In a corrupt government status like the current one we should be happy that we can get few hours heads up before the bombs start falling.
Bhuddism and Zen Bhuddism are not religions, they are philosophies, a different way of viewing the world. They don't require a church, a congregation or for you to believe anything. One reaches an understanding of cosmic unity by exploring the boundries of self. In fact, one of the first hurdles is accepting that you know very little which in turn births humble curiosity about the nature of existence. This movement has been growing for a while, might be time to look into it. Personally I found the best way to cut through the non essential periphery and get to the core of the ideas was through listening to Alan Watts.
Just Polymarket? This has been shitshow after shitshow of which Polymarket is just the latest. Under the current administration, there will be no regulation, Trump Jr himself is literally an investor and advisor to it.
It basically takes what they were doing with social networks and adds a profit incentive to it.
In my experience withcoke heads... never by coke from them. The other drugs are alright, but still worse then someone else. But you should never do business with them unless you have to.
Fairly certain that there are a few AI engines doing exactly that. If I was in charge of a large news organization, I’d absolutely be monitoring these markets for this type of bet.
wonder if they'd take this bet. not far off topic, buying insurance in america.
allstate. i'll bet you $100 if your house burns down we'll buy you a new one
allstate; win
they win like 99.76% of the time. more;
after digging through a few slop sites, dug up these values, roughly. no ai bs
145,000,000 houses , 344600 fires in 2023. bet $100/month x # of customers = $99.76 net revenue/month - (office buildings, advertising, wages etc.) per customer. check my sketchy math. please? having trouble believing this. they bend over backwards to not insure risky areas.
74 Comments
henfredemars@infosec.pub · 96 pts · 169d
This seems like a great argument to just never use the under-regulated betting markets.
OwOarchist@pawb.social · 36 pts · 169d
Unless you're privy to some insider information you can make bets about. Then you absolutely should.
Remember_the_tooth@lemmy.world · 13 pts · 169d
I don't like gambling. I worry about regulation driving it underground, though. I'd rather just see winnings taxed heavily, immediately and without exception or deduction. Invest it in social safety nets and it's effectively forcing the winners to share their loot with the most vulnerable of the people they're victimizing.
jtrek@startrek.website · 13 pts · 169d
That doesn't really address people betting on horrible things and then making them happen.
Also "it will just go underground" is still kind of a win? The average person isn't going to navigate sketchy underground arrangements, but they'll find a slick website with good SEO.
minfapper@piefed.social · 4 pts · 169d
won't that still have the same effect of driving it underground though?
Remember_the_tooth@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 169d
Yeah, to a certain extent. The nice things about taxes is that they can be dialed up and down for effect. Complete, tax-free deregulation would obviously be crazy. 100% tax would pretty much be a ban and drive it all underground. Somewhere between 0 and 100, there's an equilibrium point. Also, conflict of interest should be regulated. I don't need police betting on how many gunshot victims there will be today.
pomegranatefern@sh.itjust.works · 2 pts · 169d
Gambling, like a lot of other things, is a high dopamine reward behavior which can be fun recreationally but also lead to serious addictions. Prohibition-only approaches to things like this tend to just lead to it becoming a widespread source of funds for organized crime, and so I tend to favor a public health perspective which involves legalization with heavy regulation and taxation + behavioral health support as a part of a robust safety net.
That having been said, this to me is a strong indication that there are some things it should not be legal to bet on.
But also I'm also pretty sure that this is illegal under the Commodities Exchange Act already? So this feels like either a loophole in emphatic need of closing, or, more likely, the law just no longer fucking mattering under this administration because too many of the enforcers are corrupt.
Bronzebeard@lemmy.zip · 1 pts · 168d
Except these bets can actually drive behavior. And they're betting on the murder of thousands. It's Incentivizing the acts. They need to be stopped
SaveTheTuaHawk@lemmy.ca · 1 pts · 167d
When is any unregulated market for anything a good idea?
Simps gamble. No one has stopped that in 2000 years.
xxce2AAb@feddit.dk · 82 pts · 169d
Polymarket needs some serious eradication.
smeg@infosec.pub · 35 pts · 169d
Correct answer. It creates extremely perverse incentives in society to allow people to bet on large scale harm.
Squirrelsdrivemenuts@lemmy.world · 57 pts · 169d
Wait.. why the fuck is there a betting site where you can bet on wars starting. What in the immoral fuck is that even about?
merc@sh.itjust.works · 18 pts · 169d
Boiling frogs.
TronBronson@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 167d
I mean I actually like derivatives for hedging. I used to get 6 year contracts for electricity prices for my business. They saved my ass during covid/ Russia war. Prices climbed so fucking high that power contract became a financial asset. I like the fact that I can insure my stock portfolio with put contracts, I like that I can generate some income selling call contracts, and yes sometimes I even do short term speculation with options. If it's good enough for Nancy Pelosi, it's good enough for me! that being said it has gone way to far and there should be way more regulations and oversight because it is just a big casino and robin hood would let a child buy calls if it could access the phone.
Rothe@piefed.social · 12 pts · 169d
The answer to all of your question is: The US.
FinalRemix@lemmy.world · 4 pts · 169d
You can bet on anything, man. It's like Money Plane but with words writing.
Squirrelsdrivemenuts@lemmy.world · 4 pts · 169d
My innocent european ass has never heard of money plane or polymarket before.
FinalRemix@lemmy.world · 4 pts · 169d
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m95a7PraxF8
SaveTheTuaHawk@lemmy.ca · 4 pts · 169d
It's been a thing in UK for decades. Big with morons.
a_non_monotonic_function@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 168d
People actually throw money away on this sort of shit?
SaveTheTuaHawk@lemmy.ca · 2 pts · 167d
$39M on JC alone.
TronBronson@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 167d
Jesus fucking christ.
a_non_monotonic_function@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 167d
Fuck me.
TronBronson@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 167d
Can you imagine having to pay out after some fake ass Jesus returned.
a_non_monotonic_function@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 167d
You are giving me an idea...
TronBronson@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 167d
DO IT
AnUnusualRelic@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 168d
I don't participate, but look at the odds on various things. It's entertaining.
DreamlandLividity@lemmy.world · 3 pts · 169d
Creative interpretation of reality. Polymarket pretends it is not a betting platform, since betting on wars and similar shit is banned even in the US.
SaveTheTuaHawk@lemmy.ca · 1 pts · 169d
It's about the USA in 2026? Been in jail or something?
GuyIncognito@lemmy.ca · 34 pts · 169d
Just ban it, gambling used to be illegal in a lot of places.
PalmTreeIsBestTree@lemmy.world · 21 pts · 169d
Please ban all online betting and only make it legal at places where you have to actually go there in person to do. Impulse gambling on smartphones and prediction markets are straight cancer to society.
GuyIncognito@lemmy.ca · 5 pts · 169d
Hear hear!
Quill7513@slrpnk.net · 2 pts · 167d
and hear, here!
TronBronson@lemmy.world · 3 pts · 167d
stares at crypto markets
Akasazh@lemmy.world · 9 pts · 169d
It's only gambling if you don't know the outcome!
Quill7513@slrpnk.net · 6 pts · 167d
Polymarket and Kalshi are just an old mob numbers game but with the veneer of being accepted
Mulligrubs@lemmy.world · -9 pts · 169d
It used to be illegal to run away from your plantation, too.
No reason to outlaw this, why bother? People have always made wagers, and they enjoy it.
GuyIncognito@lemmy.ca · 8 pts · 168d
People enjoy making wagers with friends and acquaintance. Gambling apps are highly addictive commercial products which have negative value to society. Ban them and shoot the owners and shareholders.
Mulligrubs@lemmy.world · -6 pts · 168d
Food is highly addictive. Video games are highly addictive. Sex is highly addictive.
You are not "the decider" of which activity is of value to society or not, it's of value to THEM.
Instead, ban and shoot everyone who would want to ban and shoot other people for owning entertainment venues (like gambling).
They're more trouble than they are worth.
GuyIncognito@lemmy.ca · 3 pts · 167d
Ban and shoot all libertarians while we're at it.
Mulligrubs@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 165d
... and you would if you could, too... and Republicans... and then the religious... and then Independents... and so on... and that's why we don't trust you with anything more than a scooter. NO LICENSE FOR YOU
GuyIncognito@lemmy.ca · 1 pts · 165d
Republicans yes, but I don't know how you got "independents" (whatever that is) and the religious out of it.
TronBronson@lemmy.world · 3 pts · 167d
well because a lot of the wagers are easily manipulated by the same insiders who own the platform? No ones stopping you from betting with your pals. We don't want a fake rigged market place that's a black hole of money.
Mulligrubs@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 165d
Insiders and wagers go hand in hand, that's all part of the odds.
It's not a "fake rigged market place" OR the stock market is also a "fake rigged market place".
...and anti-gambling laws lead to lots of "stopping you from betting with your pals", for example see all of human history, pick an era. Police don't need a lot of incentive to seize all of your assets, it doesn't matter. This is just another excuse to do so
TronBronson@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 164d
Ur telling me rich people write laws to relieve you of your assets? Oh no how long has this been happening?! One might say that legalizing polymarket was one of these actions. One might argue you should’ve never been allowed onto such a platform in the first place.
ArgumentativeMonotheist@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 168d
You're stuck in the aesthetic phase of development.
Mulligrubs@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 168d
Housen is a poseur
Tempus_Fugit@lemmy.world · 31 pts · 169d
I refuse to participate in Biff Tannen's world! I know I'm likely to be the minority, but I'm a stubborn SOAB!
tektite@slrpnk.net · 19 pts · 169d
System of a Bitch
Tempus_Fugit@lemmy.world · 10 pts · 169d
"Psycho groupie, cocaine crazy!"
NihilsineNefas@slrpnk.net · 12 pts · 169d
HasturInYellow@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 169d
Always have been.
I have simply determined that I will have my pound of flesh before the end.
CannedYeet@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 169d
FWIW Polymarket took down that specific prediction.
NihilsineNefas@slrpnk.net · 1 pts · 168d
Took down or made private?
Either way I want every person alive to know the names and faces of anyone that put money on it.
But unfortunately I know that won't happen, especially when the chief in diaper himself is willing to bomb an elementary school full of kids to distract people from the fact he diddled kids from active warzones and destabilised countries
merc@sh.itjust.works · 11 pts · 169d
There's always someone on the other side of these bets. How is it that people keep betting on things like this when they know that insiders like this are the ones they're sometimes betting against?
SaveTheTuaHawk@lemmy.ca · 6 pts · 169d
The point is this bullshit market can influence decisions, like whether to have a nuclear strike on Iran -you think a Trump family member would not try to cash in on that?
gezero@sopuli.xyz · 9 pts · 169d
The purpose is to give incentive to knowledgeable parties to let us know up front. In a corrupt government status like the current one we should be happy that we can get few hours heads up before the bombs start falling.
They are not going to warn you for free...
MortUS@lemmy.world · 8 pts · 168d
I saw Coinbase was allowing buying/selling stocks 24/7
Commercialism has overtaken the internet. We're in full corruption mode now. Without enforcing rules and regulations, this is where society ends up.
How do we make non-religious churches for decent people? Can we start that movement and move up from there?
DarkSpectrum@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 168d
Bhuddism and Zen Bhuddism are not religions, they are philosophies, a different way of viewing the world. They don't require a church, a congregation or for you to believe anything. One reaches an understanding of cosmic unity by exploring the boundries of self. In fact, one of the first hurdles is accepting that you know very little which in turn births humble curiosity about the nature of existence. This movement has been growing for a while, might be time to look into it. Personally I found the best way to cut through the non essential periphery and get to the core of the ideas was through listening to Alan Watts.
benderbeerman@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 167d
Buddhism isn't a religion?
la508@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 167d
That's already a thing.
https://www.sundayassembly.org/home
TheObviousSolution@lemmy.ca · 7 pts · 167d
Just Polymarket? This has been shitshow after shitshow of which Polymarket is just the latest. Under the current administration, there will be no regulation, Trump Jr himself is literally an investor and advisor to it.
It basically takes what they were doing with social networks and adds a profit incentive to it.
WanderWisley@lemmy.world · 6 pts · 169d
Damn the price of cocaine is about to skyrocket.
ieatpwns@lemmy.world · 6 pts · 169d
And kalshi and he’s starting his own.
https://lemmy.world/comment/22209710
Thor_Whale@lemmus.org · 6 pts · 167d
Never trust a coke head with a corporate comb over
UltraGiGaGigantic@lemmy.ml · 0 pts · 167d
In my experience withcoke heads... never by coke from them. The other drugs are alright, but still worse then someone else. But you should never do business with them unless you have to.
All drugs should be legal and regulated.
kingofras@lemmy.world · 5 pts · 169d
Come on, why did you use an AI tool to make his nose look like this.
ArgumentativeMonotheist@lemmy.world · 4 pts · 168d
Gambling is haram for a reason. 🤷
(And yeah, I know much of it happens in or goes through some Gulf institutions, don't worry I hate those hypocrites also).
phoenixz@lemmy.ca · 3 pts · 169d
Ant sources on this? I already believe you, because it's a trump, but I'd like to see the evidence so we have something more to slap into magat faces
thethunderwolf@lemmy.dbzer0.com · 3 pts · 169d
So, monitor Polymarket for massive bets on things the US government could do, and copy those bets.
TehWorld@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 167d
Fairly certain that there are a few AI engines doing exactly that. If I was in charge of a large news organization, I’d absolutely be monitoring these markets for this type of bet.
ikidd@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 167d
1M is absolute chickenfeed to the level of corruption this family is dealing in.
m3t00@lemmy.world · 0 pts · 167d
wonder if they'd take this bet. not far off topic, buying insurance in america. allstate. i'll bet you $100 if your house burns down we'll buy you a new one
allstate; win
they win like 99.76% of the time. more; after digging through a few slop sites, dug up these values, roughly. no ai bs 145,000,000 houses , 344600 fires in 2023. bet $100/month x # of customers = $99.76 net revenue/month - (office buildings, advertising, wages etc.) per customer. check my sketchy math. please? having trouble believing this. they bend over backwards to not insure risky areas.
m3t00@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 167d
your odds of winning, having a fire and getting a new house. yeah not a win but