That's the problem. They never had a clear goal. Or at least, not an achievable one.
Broadly, in his more lucid moments, Trump wants Iran to agree to an absolutely devastating list of demands. They won't, because they've been down this road before and they fully expect that whatever they agree to now, they'll be asked to agree to twice as much tomorrow. So Iran is trying to get to a manageable list of concessions before they settle in and prepare for the next round of negotiations. They're not going to simply give up all their leverage.
As for the goal of military action... It's pretty obvious by now that Trump has no idea. It seems very much like he thinks that threatening military action, of any kind, would be enough to make Iran capitulate to all his demands, and he can't understand why that isn't working.
So he's unwilling to come down to something Iran will agree to, but he's also not eager to get stuck into a prolonged war, so instead he's stuck constantly tightening this "military escalation" ratchet in the desperate hope that this time will be the one where Iran gets scared enough to give up. What they're actually going to do with those troops could be any number of things, but really it's all just flailing attempts at further intimidation mixed with vague wishful fantasies about opening up the strait, because despite it being the most obvious move for Iran they somehow did not plan for it.
They're also contemplating some escape route options, primarily in the form of "seizing Iran's uranium", a plan that doesn't sound remotely plausible, but which would theoretically give them a way to declare victory and walk away.
What they ultimately go with is impossible to guess, because there is no long term plan and never has been. It's all going to be determined by the ever changing mood of an idiot child and the raging hate-boner of a racist alcoholic. Some kind of action to reduce Iran's control over the strait seems most likely though, as that's what's pressuring the US the most right now. If they could - hypothetically - prevent Iran threatening the strait they would have a lot more breathing room. The problem being that it's also by far the least achievable of the options in front of them.
It'd stop them launching ships to lay mines, or launching midget submarines and naval drones, which is a start. It might keep the Iranians too busy fighting on land to aim at ships. It'd basically be an open wound for USA though - completely unsustainable.
Then there's the fantasy of naval escorts for tankers. Each tanker would require a couple of ships to shadow them (anti-air, anti-sub, anti-drone) for the entire length of the gulf (not just the strait) and in normal times 120 tankers pass through there every day. You'd need a fleet ~400 ships strong, running 24/7 (no repairs or rest). And it only takes one hit from an anti-ship missile and hundreds of sailors die. So that ain't happening.
Use military equipment so more can be bought (wealth transfer through taxation), and both the MIC and the corrupt politicians who do their bidding are very happy.
38 Comments
dandelion@lemmy.blahaj.zone · 62 pts · 140d
what is the goal at this point?
Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works · 45 pts · 139d
That's the problem. They never had a clear goal. Or at least, not an achievable one.
Broadly, in his more lucid moments, Trump wants Iran to agree to an absolutely devastating list of demands. They won't, because they've been down this road before and they fully expect that whatever they agree to now, they'll be asked to agree to twice as much tomorrow. So Iran is trying to get to a manageable list of concessions before they settle in and prepare for the next round of negotiations. They're not going to simply give up all their leverage.
As for the goal of military action... It's pretty obvious by now that Trump has no idea. It seems very much like he thinks that threatening military action, of any kind, would be enough to make Iran capitulate to all his demands, and he can't understand why that isn't working.
So he's unwilling to come down to something Iran will agree to, but he's also not eager to get stuck into a prolonged war, so instead he's stuck constantly tightening this "military escalation" ratchet in the desperate hope that this time will be the one where Iran gets scared enough to give up. What they're actually going to do with those troops could be any number of things, but really it's all just flailing attempts at further intimidation mixed with vague wishful fantasies about opening up the strait, because despite it being the most obvious move for Iran they somehow did not plan for it.
They're also contemplating some escape route options, primarily in the form of "seizing Iran's uranium", a plan that doesn't sound remotely plausible, but which would theoretically give them a way to declare victory and walk away.
What they ultimately go with is impossible to guess, because there is no long term plan and never has been. It's all going to be determined by the ever changing mood of an idiot child and the raging hate-boner of a racist alcoholic. Some kind of action to reduce Iran's control over the strait seems most likely though, as that's what's pressuring the US the most right now. If they could - hypothetically - prevent Iran threatening the strait they would have a lot more breathing room. The problem being that it's also by far the least achievable of the options in front of them.
starik@lemmy.zip · 23 pts · 140d
To reopen the Strait of Hormuz and bring gas prices down close to where they were before they started the war.
SeeMarkFly@lemmy.ml · 55 pts · 140d
So...all they had to do was...NOTHING.
But they did THIS instead.
empireOfLove2@lemmy.dbzer0.com · 30 pts · 140d
Yea, but now no one's talking about the Epstein files!
SeeMarkFly@lemmy.ml · 11 pts · 139d
Yea, what kind of idiot starts a war just to distract the sheeple from his side business of raping children.
Epstein 2.0 Collecting morally depraved evidence to blackmail rich assholes. Why re-invent the wheel.
If WE don't stop it, it won't stop.
See you at todays protest.
rimu@piefed.social · 11 pts · 140d
To do that they'd need to occupy 1000+ kms of extremely rugged coast. That's quite a commitment...
starik@lemmy.zip · 13 pts · 140d
Would that even be enough? Rockets and drones can come from far away
rimu@piefed.social · 8 pts · 139d
It'd stop them launching ships to lay mines, or launching midget submarines and naval drones, which is a start. It might keep the Iranians too busy fighting on land to aim at ships. It'd basically be an open wound for USA though - completely unsustainable.
Then there's the fantasy of naval escorts for tankers. Each tanker would require a couple of ships to shadow them (anti-air, anti-sub, anti-drone) for the entire length of the gulf (not just the strait) and in normal times 120 tankers pass through there every day. You'd need a fleet ~400 ships strong, running 24/7 (no repairs or rest). And it only takes one hit from an anti-ship missile and hundreds of sailors die. So that ain't happening.
It's a trap.jpg
starik@lemmy.zip · 1 pts · 139d
Sounds expensive
errer@lemmy.world · 10 pts · 139d
They want to provoke an attack on US soil so that they can relive the popularity boost of a 9/11 style disaster.
starik@lemmy.zip · 1 pts · 139d
I doubt they’d get much of a boost. Most people would rightfully blame them. 9/11 was seen as unprovoked.
collar@lemmy.ml · 2 pts · 140d
By November 2026… after that who knows
a_non_monotonic_function@lemmy.world · 21 pts · 139d
To kill as many as 17k troops as a distraction from the Epstein files.
IchNichtenLichten@lemmy.wtf · 5 pts · 139d
Next up, a distraction from the thousands of dead and injured troops sent as a distraction from the Epstein files.
a_non_monotonic_function@lemmy.world · 6 pts · 139d
Eventually he's going to have to release the Epstein files just to distract from all of the death.
IchNichtenLichten@lemmy.wtf · 3 pts · 139d
After that, perhaps another distraction?
emergencyfood@sh.itjust.works · 3 pts · 138d
Distractions all the way down.
ChapulinColorado@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 138d
Hello Cuba my old friend! How have you been?
TotallynotJessica@lemmy.blahaj.zone · 3 pts · 138d
theunknownmuncher@lemmy.world · 9 pts · 140d
Save face? It's probably a hundredth of the troops that would be required for any kind of real success in Iran. God forbid.
ArgumentativeMonotheist@lemmy.world · 5 pts · 139d
Use military equipment so more can be bought (wealth transfer through taxation), and both the MIC and the corrupt politicians who do their bidding are very happy.
Tetragrade@leminal.space · 3 pts · 139d
Uhhh restore America's prestige?
frongt@lemmy.zip · 1 pts · 139d
Reinstall the Pahlavis, I think. I don't think there's any real plan, but that would be the end goal. Reza Pahlavi would be a US puppet.
frisbird@lemmy.ml · 1 pts · 140d
Feed Ocean Life
etchinghillside@reddthat.com · -1 pts · 139d
Greenland. It’s always been about Greenland.
msage@programming.dev · 44 pts · 139d
The Epstein-Iran war has entered a new phase.
After being won, it moved to just starting.
wonderingwanderer@sopuli.xyz · 2 pts · 138d
Is this what "winding down" looks like? 😵💫
collectif_imaginaire@piefed.social · 35 pts · 139d
I read "Israel to deploy 17k us troops to do it's bidding"
null@lemmy.org · 25 pts · 139d
Zoomers won't ever afford a house, but at least they can partake in the age old American tradition of going to war in the Middle East.
IndustryStandard@lemmy.world · 19 pts · 139d
In the wise words of a Youtube comment:
"This time the IEDs fly"
wonderingwanderer@sopuli.xyz · 1 pts · 138d
That is so true...
Dogiedog64@lemmy.world · 17 pts · 139d
beansoup@lemmy.ca · 14 pts · 139d
Into the meat grinder you go. Die for the Epstein class, as is your duty.
Whostosay@sh.itjust.works · 11 pts · 139d
Lmfao "near Iran"
How near are we talking? Like -100 yards away from it?
village604@adultswim.fan · 2 pts · 139d
Probably to the dozens of bases surrounding Iran.
electric_nan@lemmy.ml · 2 pts · 139d
...but not too near.
avidamoeba@lemmy.ca · 1 pts · 140d
They better come with a healthy stock of interceptors.