People are making wildfire bets on prediction markets. Experts say it could lead to disaster
https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/17/climate/betting-wildfires-polymarket-prediction-market-platforms
https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/17/climate/betting-wildfires-polymarket-prediction-market-platforms
22 Comments
YoFrodo@lemmy.world · 109 pts · 28d
prediction markets used to be illegal, and should be once again. anyone betting on tragedy like this should be banned from any form of gambling that is allowed
but nothing will happen because the system is corrupt and people are garbage
manxu@piefed.social · 18 pts · 28d
I mean, betting apps are banned every so often precisely because of this. I don't know how they come back to life like nothing ever happened, but I think this is the third or fourth iteration of them.
The first iteration was killed when they allowed betting on terror attacks. The "logic" was that people with knowledge would bet on the next attack (this was after 9/11) making preparations easier. Just like in the cases of wildfires, though, allowing people to be on an outcomes gives them an incentive to effect it. Buy matches, bet on wildfire.
Triumph@fedia.io · 5 pts · 28d
Strike that. Reverse it.
explodicle@sh.itjust.works · -1 pts · 28d
Wouldn't they just move onto the dark web?
YoFrodo@lemmy.world · 8 pts · 28d
better than fully sanctioned and advertised everywhere you go. They have gambling website and prediction markets hosting news/sports segments, its everywhere.
Making it run back to backroom dealings is a massive step forward
Objection@lemmy.ml · 1 pts · 27d
If it's really impossible to prevent people from gambling on wildfires and from creating financial incentives to start them, then I would strongly prefer that it at least be relegated to the furthest fringes of society possible.
SayJess@lemmy.blahaj.zone · 56 pts · 28d
If I hear anyone mention that they participate on these markets, I instantly look down on them. Fucking pathetic garbage. You want to make money? Do some fucking work. Contribute to society in some way. Betting on whether a wild fire will consume a town, or a school will be bombed, or a country toppled, makes someone a irredeemable piece of shit.
Honestly, the whole goddamned stock market should be razed to the ground, salted earth. Workers need to be the ones in control of the companies, not those who think money is what can buy power and control. It all serves to funnel paper up to the capitalists who control it all. How are prediction markets any different? Burn it all down.
lemmyng@lemmy.world · 30 pts · 28d
Occupy Wall Street should've been the start of burning it all down.
p03locke@lemmy.dbzer0.com · 2 pts · 28d
Other factions were too busy trying to push their own ideas into the movement, and it became this generic mess that didn't inspire anything. Nobody really knew what it stood for.
And with the attitude of the group, there was no "burning" anything down.
cmbabul@slrpnk.net · 5 pts · 28d
I used one to bet on a football game when they first came out, but all the non-sports things to gamble on gave me the ick pretty fast. I’m not even a big gambler but if I decide to add some extra spice to a game i plan to watch in the future I’m just going to a sports book, casinos are scummy as hell but for the most part gaming regulations are followed on at least a surface level and you can’t win money on the purposeful suffering of other people or something equally tragic. Or you couldnt last I checked
The ubiquity of gambling culture is killing sports too, which is also much less of a danger but speaks to how when completely unchecked it will ruin everything. I don’t know too many fans of any sport that don’t at least kinda think things are so out of hand it’s calling the legitimacy of the game into question
architect@thelemmy.club · 1 pts · 28d
Into question? lol that ship sailed years ago. It’s all as fake as reality tv now.
7101334@lemmy.world · 3 pts · 27d
Tbf a big portion of the stock market - ie oil and arms industry investments - has been "betting whether a school will be bombed or a country toppled" for a long time. This is just a more mask-off version of what America has always been.
Which I don't say to defend it. Exactly the opposite.
Bebopalouie@lemmy.ca · 37 pts · 28d
Yup. Assholes could make a prediction and then start a fire.
SaharaMaleikuhm@feddit.org · 31 pts · 28d
Which is why these types of markets have to be illegal in any civilized society.
minorkeys@sh.itjust.works · 23 pts · 28d
Makes arson a pretty lucrative activity. This betting on tragedy shit is peak gilded age disaster brewing.
db_null@lemmy.dbzer0.com · 17 pts · 28d
Okay calm down everybody, they clearly have it stated in their terms and conditions that you're not allowed to bet on fires you started. Nothing to worry about here.
ivanafterall@lemmy.world · 5 pts · 27d
Wish you'd told me that about an hour ago. What a senseless tragedy now.
A_norny_mousse@piefed.zip · 14 pts · 28d
No shit,
Sherlockexperts.Prediction betting sucks, but this kind of disaster prediction is disgusting.
How is this even legal. Seems so obvious.
dregan@lemmy.world · 12 pts · 28d
They're not markets.
fraksken@infosec.pub · 11 pts · 28d
"Hey commander, let this village burn and let's save this one, I got my entire life savings riding on this"
TIEPilot@lemmy.world · 8 pts · 28d
Yeah this will end well...
Etterra@discuss.online · 6 pts · 27d
What do you mean "could?"