I see what you're saying, but I'm not sure that would be the case.
Ukraine is fighting a defensive war against an oppressive invading country and I don't know (emphasis on I don't know) that they have more foreign fighters than Russia (mostly North Korea, but also Cuba, Africa, etc.).
I do know Ukraine has some foreign legions(?) with a significant number of Columbians and Iraq/Afghanistan war veterans from multiple countries, along with anti-Putin Russians and Belarusian forces.
Ukraine's low numbers (my understanding of their numbers) could be due to financial and logistical (training and supplies/equipment) constraints though.
I would say it's a good thing that Russian fighters are doing so for the money, because once the money dries up they will stop showing up.
I believe we are seeing two things recently. The first is a drop of financially motivated fighters from Russia (reasoning: drop in signing bonuses, ex. 3M to 400k in some oblasts). The second is a downward spiral of their economy (civilian industries cutting hours and 40%(?) of their oil refining capacity currently diminished), coupled with the emptying of their soverign fund (originally 150B, now less than 40B(?)).
To me it looks like they are running out of funds and financial motivated fighters.
That's not to say they will run out of fighters. I believe they recently or are in the process of allowing their "active reserve" to be called up to serve in Ukraine. If I recall correctly, their "active reserve" was 2M personnel. The analysis I read (Institute of War?) was that Russia wouldn't call them all at once, but do a rolling callup to sustain fighting and potentially release the mobilized soldiers from 2023(?). This would allow them to claim a "volunteer" only force and still have enough fighters while not paying high signup bonuses (potentially).
However, everyone who wanted to volunteer for "patriot" reasons has already done so at this point. They have or in the process of using up all their financially motivated options. Therefore, I expect their remaining "active reserve" will not be motivated and calling them up would increase unrest in Russia.
Will the unrest be enough to topple Putin? No idea. There seems to be quite a few factors pushing against him resently that could cause a coup/revolutionary moment. Gasoline shortage, massive inflation, economic downward spiral, Ukrainian drones being able to hit deep into Russia, Trump "possibly" helping Ukraine, consumer bank run on cash, etc.
If I had to guess, I would say it would happen around New Years time. My understanding is that New Years is a big celebration in Russian culture (equivalent to a combined Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Years rolled into one) and that Russians spend big on that holiday. So, I suspect, that if a popular uprising happens it will happen around then.
As others have said, Solarpunk and Blahaj both seem like good options for you. You may want to consider their piefed instances, if that's something you are interested in.
Thanks for the recommendation. I'm about to finish a different history podcast (not Revolutions) and needed something else to check out. This will be next on my list.
Just FYI, your link didn't work for me, but I found it in my podcast app.
A word of warning, each of the revolutions start with setup episode(s) that are rather dry and not particularly interesting but necessary to set the scene.
English (1st series) and American (2nd) are skippable. He was trying to make the revolutions fit a shorter format and it didn't really work.
I didn't know much about the French revolution (3rd) so that was pretty interesting.
The Independence of South America (5th), with Simon Bolivar, is good and has some set up for the Mexican revolution.
The european revolutions of the 1840s (7th) was really interesting and I'd never heard of them before. I feel like they are helpful in seeing how moderates react in a revolutionary setting.
The French Commune (8th) was interesting, especially in regard to how they dealt with the inevitable.
I think the Mexican Revolution (9th) was my favorite. Some great "characters" with Pancho Villa and Emiliano Zapata. My recollection is the setting is an elderly government that refused to give up power... That may or may not have relevance today.
The Russian Revolution (10th) was interesting in how a relatively small group (10k people) was able to take power in an apathetic population of 100M. Also, that the other politicians and groups thought the Communists were a joke and weren't really threatened when they took power.
Also, if you liked the Andor (Star Wars) show, the writer for that was apparently heavily influenced by the Revolutions podcast.
I see what your saying better now and agree interaction of variables is important.
I believe there is a graph that has number of drones and missiles fired by Russia and the Ukrainian interception rate of those missiles. My recollection is that the number of missiles fired varies quite a bit month to month, but that inception rate took a nose dive recently.
I don't think Russian missile barrages are the cause of the interceptor hit rate change, but do not have any source to back that up.
In my view, that would either be due to the missile trajectory upgrade or if Ukraine ran out of interceptor missiles. I do not know if they are out of interceptor missiles or have changed their firing rate.
I forget my source (perhaps a recent Perun yt video), but the interception rate change is due to changes in Russian missile trajectory in the terminal phase.
Previously, Russian missiles followed an arc trajectory to hit their target and were comparatively easy to intercept because it's path until reaching it's target was predictable (an arc).
Now, Russian missiles follow an arc toward target A and then when they are over target B (real target) they enter a steep dive to hit target B.
Hopefully that was understandable and helpful.
Edit: changed potential source as a new Perun video came out today, and it's not my source.
I would suggest getting your hands on the appraisal. Also, realtors should provide you with "Comps" (comparisons for other similar properties that have sold recently [last 6 months up to 2 years]).
From those you should have a better idea if the property is priced correctly.
Great job on the edits. This version seems much more readable and consistent.
Some more critiques (many extremely minor):
May want to do a find/replace for double spaces
Pg. 4: “Kings, queens. Empires swallowed by time.” First period should be a comma?
Pg. 5: “the wish would rot ,”; Pg. 12: “collided with Elder Rowan ,” extra space before comma
Pg. 5: “Tell me, Kiran.” may want a different wording as ‘tell me’ is often seen as a demand rather than a request, which the smiling would indicate it is.
Pg. 6: “The librarian hesitated, considering.” the librarian already agreed to it previously (“If this stays just between you and me, I can let you in.”)
Pg. 7: Librarian: “… People said the Night itself took his soul.” Kiran: “Please, you know how much I love to read. …” I feel like Kiran should have some reaction or acknowledgment to hearing about the last person to read in the section was torn apart, before he pushes again to get into the restricted section.
Pg. 7: “Quiet as a cat” / Pg. 4: ”Quiet as cats” is used twice, unless cats are a major part of the world you may want to change up the similes. Variety is more interesting or not use a similes and instead just say ‘quietly’.
Pg. 11: “Someone was here.” Seems pretty clear by the wording (“Kiran? Have you found what you wanted?”) that it’s the librarian and Kiran would know this. The current wording causes me to pause unnecessarily when reading to figure out if I’m missing something and someone else (librarian’s wife/step-mother) knows Kiran is looking for a book.
Possible time/duration issue: the sun is high at the beginning of the book (when Kiran is finishing reading a book and has a conversation with the librarian), then he goes to the restricted section, finds a book, checks out a book. When he leaves the library “the sun hung low on the horizon”.Kiran’s actions could take maybe 30 minutes, but sun change indicates multiple hours.It may be a longer duration when he’s in the restricted section (“No, no worries. I lost track of time. But I found a book.”), but it seems he’s only reading a few titles and that one page.If he’s spending significant time in the restricted section then you may want to add a sentence(s) indicating that. Something like picking up different books and reading pieces/sections of the book before putting them back and moving on to other books.
Pg. 11: Kiran didn’t return the library section keys. Potentially not a problem. Could put them back when the librarian is writing the title down in his journal.
Pg. 13: “If the lanterns go out, the Night Shadows will rise!” seems a strange thing for a leader to shout. He’s basically asking for people to panic.
Pg. 13: “The village was plunged into blackness.”, “Then everything went pitch dark.” I’d suggest switching blackness and dark locations, otherwise they seem to be going from no light (blackness) to some light (pitch darkness).
Pg. 13: Along the same lines, how did Mira found Kiran in complete blackness? Pg. 19: “Starlight traced rooftops”
Pg. 13: ‘“Did you see what happened outside?” she asked, already scanning the room.’ When did they move inside? Kiran is/was talking to Elder Rowan outside watching the lanterns go out.
Pg. 13: ‘“We need to move. But not blindly.” “What? Moving where?” he replied.’ This is confusing. Kiran is standing next to the village elder who should have the most knowledge and experience of what to do in emergency situations. The phrasing makes it seem that Mira has some special knowledge that Kiran and perhaps others don’t, but she doesn’t appear to (Pg. 17 Mira: “And how on Luminara would I know?”).
Pg. 14: “staying close to walls and avoiding lanterns that flickered overhead.” I’m confused. If lanterns keep you safe, why would they be avoiding lanterns, even if they aren’t working properly? Unless they are taking the paths that don’t have flickering lanterns?Seems to make more sense that they rushed to Kiran’s house but avoided paths with flickering lanterns along the way. Sticking to the walls is weird though. If darkness is dangerous then being under flickering lights would be preferential to near the walls of flickering lights.
Pg. 15: “then we figure it out.” contradicts your previous characterization of Mira (needs a complete plan before acting)
Pg. 16: “They could hide behind the large columns if someone entered.” I think this is out of place as a narration. I think it would work better as a thought or a short conversation between the two (where Kiran is nervous and Mira lays out they can hide behind the columns if someone comes in).
pg. 17: Why does Mira know more about the council chamber than Kiran? Maybe she sneaks in here herself from time to time to examine something(s)? Potential to drop a plot point or necessary skill early in the book.
pg. 18: ‘Then, grinning: “I think we should go there tomorrow.”’ Do they not have responsibilities? Seems unlikely they can just travel “Really far” at the drop of a hat.Couple options off the top of my head: they are going to discuss more at home but the village is destroyed and they have to escape. Another possibility they escape the village that night and come back the next day, Rowan sends them to the next village for help and they adventure after getting the village help.
pg. 19 “The answers we’re looking for are there.” What answers are they looking for besides a translation/the missing pages for Kiran’s book (which should be where they are now [archives])? May want to expand the archives section as it seems they went from plot point A to B without explanation/transition.
pg. 19 “Mira had always followed her instincts. And most of the time, she was right.” Feels like this is going to be used as ‘plot armor’ in the future.
pg. 20 “They sprinted past shuttered shops and overturned barrels, the black shapes writhing at their heels. Debris forced them to zigzag, crates, broken signs, a fallen cart still smoking.” Seems like everything got destroyed/damaged almost instantaneously. Also, why is something “still smoking”?
I think it’s coming together quite well. You’re doing a great job :)
Based on the post, I was expected the website to look far worse.
I agree the onboarding isn't great and could use an overhaul.
Had to specifically look search for the mascot (didn't see it on the website) and yeah, that's rough (starting from scratch may not be a bad idea). Flaxy O'Hare
The screenshot also showed a pretty basic UX that could look far better.
I guess in conclusion, I think all your points are valid.
I think they are referring to the huge block of text within the spoilers. Makes it difficult to read.
I see what you're saying, but I'm not sure that would be the case.
Ukraine is fighting a defensive war against an oppressive invading country and I don't know (emphasis on I don't know) that they have more foreign fighters than Russia (mostly North Korea, but also Cuba, Africa, etc.).
I do know Ukraine has some foreign legions(?) with a significant number of Columbians and Iraq/Afghanistan war veterans from multiple countries, along with anti-Putin Russians and Belarusian forces.
Ukraine's low numbers (my understanding of their numbers) could be due to financial and logistical (training and supplies/equipment) constraints though.
I would say it's a good thing that Russian fighters are doing so for the money, because once the money dries up they will stop showing up.
I believe we are seeing two things recently. The first is a drop of financially motivated fighters from Russia (reasoning: drop in signing bonuses, ex. 3M to 400k in some oblasts). The second is a downward spiral of their economy (civilian industries cutting hours and 40%(?) of their oil refining capacity currently diminished), coupled with the emptying of their soverign fund (originally 150B, now less than 40B(?)).
To me it looks like they are running out of funds and financial motivated fighters.
That's not to say they will run out of fighters. I believe they recently or are in the process of allowing their "active reserve" to be called up to serve in Ukraine. If I recall correctly, their "active reserve" was 2M personnel. The analysis I read (Institute of War?) was that Russia wouldn't call them all at once, but do a rolling callup to sustain fighting and potentially release the mobilized soldiers from 2023(?). This would allow them to claim a "volunteer" only force and still have enough fighters while not paying high signup bonuses (potentially).
However, everyone who wanted to volunteer for "patriot" reasons has already done so at this point. They have or in the process of using up all their financially motivated options. Therefore, I expect their remaining "active reserve" will not be motivated and calling them up would increase unrest in Russia.
Will the unrest be enough to topple Putin? No idea. There seems to be quite a few factors pushing against him resently that could cause a coup/revolutionary moment. Gasoline shortage, massive inflation, economic downward spiral, Ukrainian drones being able to hit deep into Russia, Trump "possibly" helping Ukraine, consumer bank run on cash, etc.
If I had to guess, I would say it would happen around New Years time. My understanding is that New Years is a big celebration in Russian culture (equivalent to a combined Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Years rolled into one) and that Russians spend big on that holiday. So, I suspect, that if a popular uprising happens it will happen around then.
FYI: I've clicked on 2 of your IF links and they both go to unrelated studies (Liu 2022, Thomas 2021).
As others have said, Solarpunk and Blahaj both seem like good options for you. You may want to consider their piefed instances, if that's something you are interested in.
Thanks for the recommendation. I'm about to finish a different history podcast (not Revolutions) and needed something else to check out. This will be next on my list.
Just FYI, your link didn't work for me, but I found it in my podcast app.Edit: Link worked 2nd try.
A word of warning, each of the revolutions start with setup episode(s) that are rather dry and not particularly interesting but necessary to set the scene.
English (1st series) and American (2nd) are skippable. He was trying to make the revolutions fit a shorter format and it didn't really work.
I didn't know much about the French revolution (3rd) so that was pretty interesting.
The Independence of South America (5th), with Simon Bolivar, is good and has some set up for the Mexican revolution.
The european revolutions of the 1840s (7th) was really interesting and I'd never heard of them before. I feel like they are helpful in seeing how moderates react in a revolutionary setting.
The French Commune (8th) was interesting, especially in regard to how they dealt with the inevitable.
I think the Mexican Revolution (9th) was my favorite. Some great "characters" with Pancho Villa and Emiliano Zapata. My recollection is the setting is an elderly government that refused to give up power... That may or may not have relevance today.
The Russian Revolution (10th) was interesting in how a relatively small group (10k people) was able to take power in an apathetic population of 100M. Also, that the other politicians and groups thought the Communists were a joke and weren't really threatened when they took power.
Also, if you liked the Andor (Star Wars) show, the writer for that was apparently heavily influenced by the Revolutions podcast.
We have Concerns (Science-Comedy)
Revolutions (History)
Philosophize This (Philosophy)
I see what your saying better now and agree interaction of variables is important.
I believe there is a graph that has number of drones and missiles fired by Russia and the Ukrainian interception rate of those missiles. My recollection is that the number of missiles fired varies quite a bit month to month, but that inception rate took a nose dive recently.
I don't think Russian missile barrages are the cause of the interceptor hit rate change, but do not have any source to back that up.
In my view, that would either be due to the missile trajectory upgrade or if Ukraine ran out of interceptor missiles. I do not know if they are out of interceptor missiles or have changed their firing rate.
I forget my source (perhaps a recent Perun yt video), but the interception rate change is due to changes in Russian missile trajectory in the terminal phase.
Previously, Russian missiles followed an arc trajectory to hit their target and were comparatively easy to intercept because it's path until reaching it's target was predictable (an arc).
Now, Russian missiles follow an arc toward target A and then when they are over target B (real target) they enter a steep dive to hit target B.
Hopefully that was understandable and helpful.
Edit: changed potential source as a new Perun video came out today, and it's not my source.
Looks like you added the wrong image.
I meant just spelling out the sounds. You don't need to record audio.
Awesome of you to consider that though :)
Would you be willing to provide pronunciations to the words? It would help me, as I can think of a couple ways to pronounce each of the words.
I would suggest getting your hands on the appraisal. Also, realtors should provide you with "Comps" (comparisons for other similar properties that have sold recently [last 6 months up to 2 years]).
From those you should have a better idea if the property is priced correctly.
Great job on the edits. This version seems much more readable and consistent.
Some more critiques (many extremely minor):
I think it’s coming together quite well. You’re doing a great job :)
Link for anyone interested:
https://friendi.ca/
Based on the post, I was expected the website to look far worse.
I guess in conclusion, I think all your points are valid.
Edit: numbered items and added missing link.
Yeah, looks interesting, but what is the arc of his life (OP's question)?
Looks like a guy who wanted to go fast and then did...
What's the arc? I read the wiki article and can't figure it out.
It may be "blocked users" or users from a blocked instance (you blocked or sh.itjust.works blocked). Can you provide an example?
Haha.
I'm aware of how very low the bar is (look up what 2 buttons to press).
I appreciate you trying to help me though. I really like that about Lemmy/Fediverse :)