I am not an expert in engineering projects in China, which is why I rely on 3rd party reporting to give me an idea of what is going on in that space. And when China makes what seems to me to be a preposterous claim, qualified by "if everything goes according to schedule," I am suspicious. Not because I particularly distrust Chinese engineers, but because the project managers in my own country are prone to the same tendency to overstate scope, and understate budget and schedule.
Why would you assume any of that? If there is one constant in large-scale engineering projects, it is project managers over-promising on what their teams can deliver. In this case, they are promising a miracle salvation from the global DRAM shortage, so a measure of scepticism is, I believe, warranted.
The fever effect is fairly well documented, and could account for what you're seeing. For me, when I'm sick it feels like I suddenly gain the ability to take care of myself.
Speaking as a senior dev: AI has replaced new hires and interns, and the students know it. Why would management hire me juniors when Claude does what they can for cheaper? Will be interesting to see how this ouroboros functions in 10 years when it's still recycling the state of the art as of 2022, and the senior devs start retiring with nothing but agentic backfills.
Fucking Dallas, TX. Of all the major cities in North America, Dallas is the most devoid of culture. It is a city inhabited by cars, not people. If you took the average of all North American cities, it would be Dallas, but not in a way that derives any value from the cities included in the average. If you asked an LLM to generate an American metroplex, you would get a low-resolution, but otherwise one-to-one map of Dallas and Ft. Worth. Dallas is the backrooms except with a clear view of the sky.
I like to explain it as "advanced undo-redo." Most people who use computers have an intuitive understanding of undo-redo. You can ctrl-z all the way back to when the document was empty, and ctrl-y all the way forward to where you were. The difference with git is that you have to manually create those checkpoints with a commit.
But what if you ctrl-z a few times, and then type something? Most people know that all the changes they just ctrl-z'ed are gone. This is git's first advanced feature: branching. Git allows you to maintain alternate 'timelines' for your file(s), which you can hop between at will. This is also what makes it a powerful collaboration tool: everyone on the team can maintain their own personal branches.
That last capability becomes extremely powerful with the next advanced feature: merging. Git has a number of very nice tools to assist in merging timelines back together, identifying conflicts when needed. This allows teams to set up one "true" branch that is the main (we used to use a different word) timeline. That way, each developer isn't undoing and redoing on the same set of files, they can make their changes in isolation, and when a change is ready, it can be merged back into the main timeline. The proposed changes can be easily seen using git's diff tool, and can be reviewed by the team, further refined, and finally merged with the main timeline. After this operation, the two histories have been joined and everyone else can pull in and start using that change.
I find that's enough to get a new user conceptually oriented. That is, they have a good idea of what they need to do, if not the exact git commands to do it. But that's the easy part, just a quick glance at the man page is all that's needed.
Alternatively: time passes like a kidney stone and the only way to endure it is to clench and focus on something small and irrelevant.
I am not an expert in engineering projects in China, which is why I rely on 3rd party reporting to give me an idea of what is going on in that space. And when China makes what seems to me to be a preposterous claim, qualified by "if everything goes according to schedule," I am suspicious. Not because I particularly distrust Chinese engineers, but because the project managers in my own country are prone to the same tendency to overstate scope, and understate budget and schedule.
Why would you assume any of that? If there is one constant in large-scale engineering projects, it is project managers over-promising on what their teams can deliver. In this case, they are promising a miracle salvation from the global DRAM shortage, so a measure of scepticism is, I believe, warranted.
Not to detract from your point, but assuming that exponential growth continues is one of the classic statistical blunders.
"assuming all current projects are completed on schedule"
From the article. This is the single largest fallacy one can engage in in engineering.
The fever effect is fairly well documented, and could account for what you're seeing. For me, when I'm sick it feels like I suddenly gain the ability to take care of myself.
Speaking as a senior dev: AI has replaced new hires and interns, and the students know it. Why would management hire me juniors when Claude does what they can for cheaper? Will be interesting to see how this ouroboros functions in 10 years when it's still recycling the state of the art as of 2022, and the senior devs start retiring with nothing but agentic backfills.
Also Americans: Four score and
twelveseven years ago, ...Fucking Dallas, TX. Of all the major cities in North America, Dallas is the most devoid of culture. It is a city inhabited by cars, not people. If you took the average of all North American cities, it would be Dallas, but not in a way that derives any value from the cities included in the average. If you asked an LLM to generate an American metroplex, you would get a low-resolution, but otherwise one-to-one map of Dallas and Ft. Worth. Dallas is the backrooms except with a clear view of the sky.
Dang, he who gets spread gets bred. Law of the jungle baby.
You always measure butt to tip
Horse names used to be respectable
I like to explain it as "advanced undo-redo." Most people who use computers have an intuitive understanding of undo-redo. You can ctrl-z all the way back to when the document was empty, and ctrl-y all the way forward to where you were. The difference with git is that you have to manually create those checkpoints with a commit.
But what if you ctrl-z a few times, and then type something? Most people know that all the changes they just ctrl-z'ed are gone. This is git's first advanced feature: branching. Git allows you to maintain alternate 'timelines' for your file(s), which you can hop between at will. This is also what makes it a powerful collaboration tool: everyone on the team can maintain their own personal branches.
That last capability becomes extremely powerful with the next advanced feature: merging. Git has a number of very nice tools to assist in merging timelines back together, identifying conflicts when needed. This allows teams to set up one "true" branch that is the main (we used to use a different word) timeline. That way, each developer isn't undoing and redoing on the same set of files, they can make their changes in isolation, and when a change is ready, it can be merged back into the main timeline. The proposed changes can be easily seen using git's diff tool, and can be reviewed by the team, further refined, and finally merged with the main timeline. After this operation, the two histories have been joined and everyone else can pull in and start using that change.
I find that's enough to get a new user conceptually oriented. That is, they have a good idea of what they need to do, if not the exact git commands to do it. But that's the easy part, just a quick glance at the man page is all that's needed.
Pretty good.
Goddamn this mf really did hold the gun up to his own head and pulled the trigger just to prove it would go click.
Oh hey, a chance to mention my second favorite Doom wad!