Russia is planning an armed “provocation” on Polish soil to test Nato’s resolve, the United States has warned.
Polish critical infrastructure could be targeted by missiles and drones or Russian soldiers could cross the border into Nato territory.
Washington has issued several warnings to Warsaw about the plot, sources close to Karol Nawrocki, the Polish president, told Onet, the Polish news outlet, which, along with The Telegraph, is owned by Axel Springer and is part of its Global Reporters Network.
Additional context:
The United States has warned Poland that Russia may be considering an armed provocation on Polish territory in the coming months to test NATO’s resolve and pressure Western allies to scale back support for Ukraine
According to Ukrainska Pravda, citing The Telegraph, sources close to Polish President Karol Nawrocki said Washington had warned Warsaw that Russia was weighing scenarios that could include drone attacks on critical infrastructure, such as power plants, or a simulated large-scale air attack designed to force Poland to activate its air defenses.
A more radical scenario could involve a hybrid attack in Poland’s border region, potentially with the participation of Belarusian forces. Russia could attempt to explain away a border violation by claiming its troops had become lost because of GPS disruption or were carrying out a rescue mission after a helicopter emergency.
72 Comments
Tar_alcaran@sh.itjust.works · 71 pts · 32d
NATOs resolve? Putin had better hope we can all hold Poland back from finally acting on what has been the burning national desire to turn Russians into a fine pink mist.
fraksken@infosec.pub · 7 pts · 32d
We won't hold Poland back. We'll be right there, shoulder by shoulder!
lka1988@sh.itjust.works · 1 pts · 31d
screeching intensifies
"What was that?"
"Oh that's just Poland daring Russia to push the button..."
Carrolade@lemmy.world · 57 pts · 32d
Kyiv Post tends to be a little less bombastic with their reporting:
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/79532
They word it differently, saying the US warned that Russia was "considering" an attack. This is probably true, and has probably been true every year for the past several decades. Simply because a nation's military planners "consider" pretty much everything they can think of.
tonytins@pawb.social · 11 pts · 32d
Thanks. Updated the post to include Kyiv's perspective.
phutatorius@lemmy.zip · 1 pts · 30d
Also, the Telegraph is reactionary shite, not to be trusted.
rozodru@piefed.world · 43 pts · 32d
Now i'm no military expert but even I know out of all the possible ideas Russia could have, this is the worst.
Poland is quite literally chomping at the bit for the ruskies to try something. They've been prepping for it for god knows how long now. The Polish Military would absolutely kick the russians teeth in on their own without the need of NATO if it called for it.
russians are stupid but this is just posturing. empty threats. For the decades of russian lying they've never been able to get good at it. like someone who has been playing the piano for years but still can't play twinkle, twinkle, little star...at some point you just need to tell them "stop, you're not good at it, and you never will be."
Pringles@sopuli.xyz · 4 pts · 32d
I genuinely thought about 3 years ago that Poland was going to join the war, with or without consent of Nato on the side of Ukraine. From their pov, they won’t get an opportunity to hurt Russia as much as it would now in the next 50 years at least. If this was a game and no actual lives were at stake, or if Russia had no nukes, they would have pulled that trigger already.
That being said, if sufficiently provoked, I don’t expect them to sit idly by. From a geostrategic pov it might actually be necessary for them to secure their eastern flank, given that Germany is rearming and afd is very friendly to the Kremlin.
Apocalypteroid@lemmy.world · 25 pts · 32d
Considering how badly they seem to be doing in Ukraine, this seems like a fairly large tactical error.
EtAl@lemmy.dbzer0.com · 9 pts · 32d
Putin needs to mobilize the Russian populace to make any progress in Ukraine, but doing so would make the urban centers of Moscow and St. Petersburg revolt. He needs a damn good reason. If he doesn't mobilize, Moscow and St. Petersburg are going to revolt, and he's going to end his days hanging from a lamppost.
Apocalypteroid@lemmy.world · 9 pts · 32d
We can but hope
phutatorius@lemmy.zip · 2 pts · 30d
There's also the Gaddafi option.
Flower@sh.itjust.works · 21 pts · 32d
Then EU members should leak that they're considering taking Kaliningrad.
Kazel@lemmy.dbzer0.com · -5 pts · 32d
du hast königsberg und deutschland falsch geschrieben
BlindPenguin@lemmy.world · 7 pts · 31d
*Královec
Miaou@jlai.lu · 3 pts · 31d
Germans really can't stop themselves
Siegfried@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 32d
Königsberg... i say we should take as EUs common land... it has a good military port after all.
Kazel@lemmy.dbzer0.com · 1 pts · 31d
oopsie woopsie... yeah deal
moopet@sh.itjust.works · 12 pts · 31d
"US Warns" is like, "ChatGPT said".
It might be true. But it has no credibility and might be full of shit.
TankovayaDiviziya@lemmy.world · 5 pts · 31d
They had been right since Ukraine though. Nobody, except Ukraine of course, before the invasion believed the US warning because 1) invading a country that historically hates you and expecting no resistance is stupid. That's like Britain invading Ireland again. 2) the US lied about Iraq before. I hate to say this as someone who loathe US for invading Iraq under falsified intelligence report, but this time the US intelligence is telling the truth. Broken clock is right twice a day and all that while also the US is the boy who cried wolf.
This news is the usual border movement and sabre rattling from Kremlin to compensate from the fact that they are proven to be paper tiger. All bark and no bite. It's like Kevin Hart wanting to fight Andre the Giant because Kevin feels so insecure.
Omgpwnies@lemmy.world · -1 pts · 31d
There's a difference in credibility between trying to make excuses for attacking versus sharing intelligence for defence though.
If the story was that Iran was preparing to attack Poland to support Russia and that's why the US started their illegal clusterfuck, then yeah that would be completely different.
TankovayaDiviziya@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 30d
Except the US and Poland are not trying to make excuses to attack Russia?
Omgpwnies@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 30d
...........
that's literally exactly what I'm saying.
marxismtomorrow@lemmy.today · -10 pts · 31d
Of course it's true, the US planning false flag attacks and announcing them early is literally the history of half of modern terror attacks.
HumanOnEarth@lemmy.ca · 12 pts · 32d
NaibofTabr@infosec.pub · 5 pts · 32d
"Why would NATO do this?"
rants_unnecessarily@piefed.social · 4 pts · 32d
Oh that's interesting. And plausible.
Thebeardedsinglemalt@lemmy.world · 10 pts · 31d
This mildly concerns me because I've had a paranoid thought that the orange turd has been planning to announce the official US withdrawal from NATO on July 4th.
Not to say Poland and the other NATO allies couldn't handle a deeply weakened Russian military but no idea what downstream effects this may have
tonytins@pawb.social · 5 pts · 31d
Oh shit... I never thought about that.
BeMoreCareful@lemmy.world · 4 pts · 31d
It's the same shit Germany pulled before WW2. If we'd have had a different president we'd have been aligned with Germany.
Either way we were going to wait and watch and jump in with the winners.
Omgpwnies@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 31d
NATO without the US would most likely be still strong enough to face Russia. This is assuming the US just sits out and doesn't become an antagonist in some fashion.
switcheroo@lemmy.world · 10 pts · 32d
Shouldn't trust the word of Russian sympathizers but it wouldn't hurt to be on guard just in case.
Poland will mop up the floor with what's left of his troops. He'd be fucking stupid to even try. Makes me wonder if he's spreading this rumor via his puppets for some other reason-- and it most definitely has something to do with Ukraine.
T00l_shed@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 31d
Poland like "try me"
TerdFerguson@lemmy.ca · 9 pts · 31d
Failing in Ukraine... so Russia will now also provoke a heavily armed NATO country, and neighbour to Ukraine: Poland.
No. Serious doubt this is real.
bstix@feddit.dk · 9 pts · 32d
Doubt it. Even Putin knows not to check for electricity by pissing on the fuse box.
Fishnoodle@lemmy.world · 7 pts · 32d
Sure, create a new front when you're getting the shit kicked out of you at the current front. At least you've got plenty of air defense to defend you from two attackers instead of one. Oh wait... You don't even have the air defenses to stay safe from Ukraine.
I'd also imagine they're almost out of drug addicted convicts to send to the front lines as well
Nautalax@lemmy.world · 5 pts · 32d
From the article this seems less like opening a full-on front in conception and more like a teehee wow our drone seems to have gotten turned around and flew into a substation sort of provocation. An unambiguous invasion will activate more or less everyone but relatively piddly incursions don’t typically excite as much of the population because many away from the area tend to see the cost of war as worse than the cost of tolerating those incursions. So ironically a well-calibrated attack in this gray zone kind of way that falls just short of the line can actually divide people in the victim country rather than unite them, and if a particular sort of incursion is tolerated once then it’s not a far step for Russia to keep spamming that out and take advantage of the additional flexibility. I think that the former is more of the goal because there is a burgeoning division in Polish society on aiding Ukraine or not that Russia is trying to make as wide as possible, things get much more dire for Ukraine if Polish help is cut.
Every once in a while Russia does screw up with where the line is (ex. when Turkey blew up a jet they were flying over Turkish territory) but even in that case where they did get a vigorous response they kind of won anyway because it drove a big wedge between Turkey and the rest of NATO. Then isolated and threatened-feeling Turkey sought to improve relations with Moscow and among other things actually started officially allowing Russian jets to fly over their territory to Syria, up until the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Danquebec@sh.itjust.works · 5 pts · 32d
I just want to tell you I always love reading your comments. They're always thoughtful and interesting. I know you with the tag "Knows Chinese history" and when I see this tag, China-related or not, I know it will be good.
Nautalax@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 32d
Aw thanks, that’s kind of you to say. =) I am still relatively new to Lemmy and didn’t even know it was possible to make custom tags for users so I’d also like to say thanks for broadcasting out neat info!
Danquebec@sh.itjust.works · 2 pts · 31d
I don't think it's part of Lemmy per se, rather it's an app feature. I use Voyager.
phutatorius@lemmy.zip · 2 pts · 30d
It's like undersea cable-cutting, paying dumbshits to sabotage infrastructure, novichok, interfering in politics, and sabre-rattling in general. It raises tensions, but they lie about their involvement.
lithiumground@lemmy.world · 0 pts · 31d
That is why ,it is more plausible to say ,above news is a west and Ukraine propaganda !
kreskin@lemmy.world · 7 pts · 31d
"The US government says" a lot of crazy shit. Russia doesnt have the oil or cash reserves, or troops or hardware to initiate an attack on NATO. I imagine its the US spreading fear for its own advantage before the NATO meeting.
perestroika@slrpnk.net · 5 pts · 31d
I'm not sure what to think about it - a risk certainly exists, but I can't put a probability on it currently.
I live in one of the countries which has been warned about a provocation - Estonia. Over here, we've been preparing for this at some kind of a pace (IMHO too slow) for quite some years. An admission must be made: both Ukraine and Russia are way ahead in mass production and use of drones. They both punch above their weight with drones (and both have considerable weight too) and have considerably more antidrone defense set up than neighbouring countries.
Russia manufactures an awful lots of drones per day. But as long as Ukraine fights it with an equally awful lot, Russia simply lacks resources for a big provocation, since Ukraine is tying down all their resources.
Russia has fuel shortages, manpower shortages, armor and artillery shortages, no surplus of drones either (they fly to Ukraine within days of leaving a factory). There could be a stockpile of 100 or 200 Iskander short range ballistic missiles, less of other types. On the background, of course, the Soviet-built strategic missile forces exist untouched. But they're not capable of being used with conventional warheads, since their precision is too low.
Meanwhile, Putin's popularity is finally dropping. Parliamentary elections are approaching. It's fairly obviouls that special services must be considering "creative" ways of taking back initiative. But I can't clearly see what they would hope to achieve with this kind of activity.
Hypothetic perspective from Russia: "let's f*ck around and see if NATO has resolve"
I don't see a winning option.
ChairmanMeow@programming.dev · 3 pts · 30d
I believe the idea is that they fuck around in Poland, NATO responds meekly, and Poland therefore blocks Ukraine aid to not risk further attacks from Russia if NATO doesn't have their back.
But it sounds like a very stupid plan, agreed.
Mihies@programming.dev · 5 pts · 32d
Not again this warmongering crap...these days Russia is supposedly attacking western countries left and right.
LH0ezVT@sh.itjust.works · 2 pts · 32d
Several choices:
Which one it is, no idea
bufalo1973@piefed.social · 5 pts · 31d
Or US trying to sell some equipment faster.
tonytins@pawb.social · 1 pts · 32d
Yes and no. With the exception of Ukraine, they're mostly going the propaganda route and using a certain puppet president to achieve their goals.
Mihies@programming.dev · 1 pts · 32d
Puppets, yes, actual military operation? So not likely.
Tolc@lemmy.world · 3 pts · 31d
seems like lockheed martin wants to sell more weapons
Faithless@lemmy.world · 3 pts · 30d
I think they are more working with bots and trolls to raise anti-Ukrainian sentimente in Poland. Thry are succesful at that
phutatorius@lemmy.zip · 1 pts · 30d
Shame if a few troll farms got droned.
HubertManne@piefed.social · 2 pts · 31d
russia desperately needs to be conquered so it can get aid.
WanderWisley@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 31d
Fuck off Putin!
electric_nan@lemmy.ml · 0 pts · 30d
Doubt.
breakfastmtn@lemmy.ca · 0 pts · 32d
https://archive.is/BkISd
Siegfried@lemmy.world · -3 pts · 32d
As if NATO's resolve hasnt been tested already. NATO is a bad joke.
SpaceCowboy@lemmy.ca · 9 pts · 31d
NATO is fine... expect for just one country which is a complete joke.
marxismtomorrow@lemmy.today · -25 pts · 31d
So... There's going to be a false flag in Poland by Ukraine or the US, like those cables that got cut by Ukraine?
modernangel@sh.itjust.works · 3 pts · 31d
Have false flag ops historically yielded net strategic payoffs for the U.S.?
(Not that sober analysis of history is something the regime is really showing any interest in whatsoever)
marxismtomorrow@lemmy.today · -5 pts · 31d
People still think ISIS are enemy combatants to the US, justifying our presence in Iraq and Syria (here's a reminder that US troops are still in Syria) in order to secure the oil wells US companies are profiting off of given they're basically producing free oil (since oil companies aren't paying for the military deployments, just the public).
People largely still think Israel is a victim and the US should protect Israel, giving the US a permanent base in one of the most valuable places on Earth.
People mostly saw through all the Iranian nonsense but some people still think Iran has ever attacked US ships or personnel so...
People still think the blockade on Cuba is justified.
Heck people still constantly fall for the common police tactic of creating false-flag violence 'against' police in order to justify declaring a gathering a violent riot allowing for live fire.
::: spoiler Rule 3 does not explicitly apply to comments and I don't care to source this 9/11 precipitated one of the largest wealth transfers from the poor to the rich in world history, and was 100% a false flag attack. The pilots just happened to have been trained by former CIA operatives, the fact Israel explicitly knew the attacks were going to happen and sent people to the US to film the attacks, the fact that the owner of WTC took out terror insurance two weeks before and took his first day off in literally the entirety of his career the day of the attack, WTC 7 hosting pentagon audit files and magically being demolished despite no flaming debris ever being filmed falling on the building and explosions seen at the base of the building. Also WTC 7 was almost entirely evacuated that day before the attacks with the few staff in there suspiciously getting out with no injuries whatsoever. 9/11 also cemented the US' course into fascism and created a holy war between zionists and muslims that persists to this day and has been used to justify every single bomb dropped (which there have been more than the entirety of WWII) since, which has generated massive profit for the zionist capital class and has allowed the US to have essentially free reign to terrorize the entire planet. :::
lithiumground@lemmy.world · -48 pts · 31d
Western and Ukraine propaganda to spread hatred towards Russia . West is the same evil as Russia
BlindPenguin@lemmy.world · 23 pts · 31d
anarchy79@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 31d
There have been so many robots on here lately. Like accounts that seem programmed to sow division.
svcg@lemmy.blahaj.zone · 1 pts · 31d
Feelings about Russia aside, no-one actually thinks Russian Standard is good vodka, right?
bold_atlas@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 31d
Vodka is vodka.
anarchy79@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 31d
Please stop pretending to be a vodka connoeisseur. It's just sad.
lithiumground@lemmy.world · -24 pts · 31d
you will classify everyone as Russian bot who against hypocritical of Europe . I am not Russian but ,thanks to Russia someone create problem for western world ! Thank to China who undermine Europe economy . Not because I like China or Russia , but someone need to itching Europe and USA because west put rules and sanction countries as they wish, it must end . The world needs a balance .
BlindPenguin@lemmy.world · 8 pts · 31d
Photonic@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 31d
Armok_the_bunny@lemmy.world · 13 pts · 31d
Go back to .ml tankie.
Lucius_Sweet@lemmy.world · 5 pts · 31d
Russia doesn't need the wests help to make them more hated, they are doing a fine job all by themselves. Putin claims to be a student of history, he should have known that Russia hasn't won a war by themselves in almost 200 years now. Pathetic losers, think I can hear Swan Lake faintly in the background....