‘There is no Mamdani effect’: Manhattan luxury home sales surge after mayoral election, undercutting predictions of doom and escape to Florida

https://fortune.com/2025/12/04/mamdani-effect-new-york-city-real-estate-manhattan-luxury-millionaires-billionaires/

In the aftermath of much well-heeled panic about a potential mass exodus of New York millionaires and billionaires following the election of Zohran Mamdani, the contrary is already happening, and Manhattan luxury apartment buyers are voting with their wallets.

Signed contracts for Manhattan homes costing $4 million or more rose to 176 in November, a 25% increase from October’s 141 deals, according to fresh data from brokerage Douglas Elliman and appraiser Miller Samuel. New signed contracts of more than $4 million increased at more than twice the rate of the overall market, the report noted.

613 points · 87 comments · view on lemmy.world

87 Comments

xxce2AAb@feddit.dk · 150 pts · 251d (1 reply)

Wait. Are you telling me that people would be willing to pay a small premium for living in a place that isn't a shit hole, surrounded by content people who aren't feeling murderously angry about crappy circumstances beyond their control?

Huh.

Sternout@feddit.org · 9 pts · 251d

How ever shall the millionaires afford that?

Lasherz12@lemmy.world · 71 pts · 251d

Cuomo said he'd move to Florida, hopefully the supposed Mamdani effect at least works on him.

mcv@lemmy.zip · 65 pts · 251d (2 replies)

For most people, but especially for the rich, a liveable environment is far more important than a bit more money. Nobody who has saving money as their first priority is going to be living in New York anyway. But a liveable city that's safe, fun to be in, and that you can move around in without fearing for your life, those are far more important to most people.

So I'm not surprised that Mamdani's victory is drawing more people to NY.

boonhet@sopuli.xyz · 21 pts · 251d

Literally if I was loaded I'd love to live in NYC despite it being expensive. Because (and I can't stress this enough) YOLO. Spend your life enjoying it, not saving up every single penny. And in this case, the taxes can contribute to enjoyment through increased safety and other livability factors.

mirshafie@europe.pub · 16 pts · 251d

This is obvious when you think about it even a little bit. You can't buy safe streets.

What's the point of being ultra-rich when you have to step outside into Phnom Penh and watch how toddlers collect scrap?

Akasazh@feddit.nl · 35 pts · 251d (6 replies)

After decades of posing socialism as the root of all evil it is remarkable how it's really not.

lemmy_get_my_coat@lemmy.world · 16 pts · 251d

About time. We've seen so much evil that's unconnected to socialism.

BarneyPiccolo@lemmy.today · 4 pts · 250d (2 replies)

Don't celebrate too early. The last thing they want is an experiment in Socialist Democracy, and if it is forced on them, like this, they will do ANYTHING to make it fail.

Mamdani's got a rough road ahead, so we'll have to help him resist all the ferocious propaganda and interference he's going to face. We have to have his back, and make this experiment successful, so it can spread across America.

CharlesDarwin@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 250d

It's like Chomsky talks about when he talks about the "threat of a good example". I would not be surprised to see lots of little Eichmanns all trying their best to hamstring this, even if they are not as prominent (and as stupid) as Taco.

Akasazh@feddit.nl · 1 pts · 250d

I'm not celebrating at all. Shit is way too serious.

However tiny sparkles of hope I do embrace.

iambatman1469@ttrpg.network · 3 pts · 251d
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FlyingCircus@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 251d

It’s funny how socialism is in fact the antidote to the root of all evil (capitalism).

SaveTheTuaHawk@lemmy.ca · 32 pts · 251d (13 replies)

No one is leaving NY because Florida does not have decent pizza or italian sandwiches.

Is there even a museum in Florida without fake animals?

Stern@lemmy.world · 7 pts · 251d (4 replies)

They don't want to be big fish in small ponds, they want to be big fish in big ponds, hence why Indianopolis or Cincinnati or whatever other big but not NYC big towns didn't see billionaires rushing in.

ronl2k@lemmy.world · 5 pts · 250d

Elon Musk and Tesla had already proven that wealthy glorified welfare recipients cause no harm when they leave a state.

captainlezbian@lemmy.world · 4 pts · 250d (2 replies)

It would've been hilarious if they rushed to Cincinnati

treesapx@lemmy.world · 3 pts · 250d (1 reply)

NYC billionaires traditionally love chili on spaghetti.

captainlezbian@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 250d

Don't knock it until you try it. It's one of the few meat foods I kinda miss.

dejected_warp_core@lemmy.world · 5 pts · 251d (6 replies)

Eh, I went to a few pretty good museums in Key West once. Although, they also tried to become The Conch Republic for about a day that one time, so maybe they don't count as mainland Florida.

PalmTreeIsBestTree@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 251d (5 replies)

They have Hemingway’s house and the bar he used to go to which is neat but that’s about it. Also, there is a marker signifying the most southern point of the continental United States.

dejected_warp_core@lemmy.world · 4 pts · 251d (4 replies)

Eh, there's a little more than that.

  • Lots of piracy museums
  • Open beverage carry on Duval St.
  • Lots of gay clubs
  • More tour boats than you'd think possible for such a small island
  • Drunken cruise passengers
  • Drunken tourists on bikes/scooters/ATVs.
  • Military base
  • Old Civil War era fort (not the same thing)
  • Margaritaville

Most of those things are up for debate following each hurricane season.

vaultdweller013@sh.itjust.works · 3 pts · 250d

Its always a damned margaritaville or a rainforest cafe.

musubibreakfast@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 250d

Also lots of rich tourists from Venezuela in the 80s and 90s. Now not so much anymore.

lordbritishbusiness@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 250d

Gotta say Margaritaville is tempting...

PalmTreeIsBestTree@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 250d

Hurricanes always mess that place up

JTode@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 250d

😂

aceshigh@lemmy.world · 32 pts · 251d (6 replies)

They’ve been saying that wealthy people would leave nyc for at least 20 years. Fear mongering.

quick_snail@feddit.nl · 1 pts · 251d (5 replies)

A lot of people did leave, following covid.

SaveTheTuaHawk@lemmy.ca · 3 pts · 251d (2 replies)

In refrigerated trailers. Strange for a "Scamdemic".

quick_snail@feddit.nl · 1 pts · 251d (1 reply)

No, I mean lots of my friends started working remotely, so they decided to do so someplace with a lower CoL

RomeCallen@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 250d

Ok so completely different reason?

jjjalljs@ttrpg.network · 2 pts · 250d (1 reply)

I remember a bunch of coworkers leaving during COVID and I was like "ok but what're you going to do after? It's fucking boring where you're moving to."

quick_snail@feddit.nl · 1 pts · 250d

Most of them seem pretty happy today

TankovayaDiviziya@lemmy.world · 27 pts · 251d (1 reply)

Rich people fleeing because of a "socialist^TM^" politician in power is a complete nonsense since FDR. Even Warren Buffet called it out. Sure, some leave, but it is usually just a handful who do.

I also think that many rich people decided to stay and buy property in New York is because they actually know that Mamdani is a more stable economic hand than GOP states such as Florida. Plenty of tycoons low key wish for America to "Make America, America Again" because they are anxious of Trump's chaotic economic policies; so much so that JP Morgan CEO threw his support on Mamdani.

UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world · 5 pts · 251d

Sure, some leave, but it is usually just a handful who do.

I mean, back in the 1980s, there really was a big exodus of fossil fuel companies from the Northeast (NY / NJ / CT) down to the Gulf Coast. My dad was part of that transition, forcing us to leave our beautiful garden state home and decamp to the armpit of America, Houston TX.

But this was a decision made at the executive level largely due to the Nixonian Southern Strategy combined with a national reorganization of Republican and Democrat aligned business interests. The downturn in the O&G economy made real estate in the Gulf Coast dirt cheap, while land prices in the New England area stayed relatively high. And the reorganization helped Reagnite voting coalitions finally flip states like Texas and Florida after decades of entrenched Dixiecrat control.

Nothing like that is shaping up in lower Manhattan specifically for the year 2026.

boonhet@sopuli.xyz · 26 pts · 251d

And if it WAS a real thing, it would mean fewer people in NYC, which would make it more affordable, would've been positive either way.

Nusm@peachpie.theatl.social · 25 pts · 251d (2 replies)

Are you telling me that people don’t want to move to the FREE STATE OF FLORIDA?

(Yes, these signs are real.)

spizzat2@lemmy.zip · 5 pts · 251d
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Spezi@feddit.org · 1 pts · 250d

I wouldn’t want a Florida, even if it was free.

RememberTheApollo_@lemmy.world · 18 pts · 251d

Probably most of those stating they’d run away already had Florida or other avoid-NY-taxes out of state license plates on their cars before the election.

yeahiknow3@lemmy.dbzer0.com · 17 pts · 251d (5 replies)

Why would any rational person move to Florida? Lmao.

quick_snail@feddit.nl · 7 pts · 251d (2 replies)

Not that it's a good state to be homeless, but at least you don't freeze in the Winter.

SaveTheTuaHawk@lemmy.ca · 1 pts · 251d (1 reply)

But you are grocery shopping in a canoe every September.

quick_snail@feddit.nl · 1 pts · 251d

Not an issue in central Florida

ameancow@lemmy.world · 4 pts · 251d
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SaveTheTuaHawk@lemmy.ca · 2 pts · 251d

Swingers.

grue@lemmy.world · 16 pts · 251d (1 reply)

I mean, it sounds like the number of millionaires leaving did go up. It's just that there are plenty of other ones willing to replace them.

Soup@lemmy.world · 10 pts · 251d

These may have also been homes already up for sale.

PP_BOY_@lemmy.world · 13 pts · 251d (8 replies)
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Lost_My_Mind@lemmy.world · 9 pts · 251d (4 replies)

20 years ago I almost moved to Florida. I liked it.

And now? I'm so glad I didn't do it. I don't know if I'm less blind, or if it's gotten worse. But now I don't even want to visit, much less live there.

Then again, I don't want to live in Ohio either. Yet here we are.

alekwithak@lemmy.world · 18 pts · 251d

I grew up in Florida. Have left a few times, but moved back in 2019 then left again in 2022 right before shit really hit the fan. 20 years ago Florida was a lot nicer than it is now. 10 years ago, too. Maga has turned the quiet, chill little beach town I grew up in into a maga hell, and now you couldn't pay me to go back. The worst thing about Florida used to be the weather. Used to be.

But also growing up each and every single "new kid" at school was from New York, and there were lots of jokes about us living in 'South New York' so I can see where the prediction came from, there's plenty of precedent. But that was when land was cheap and politics were similar.

Fondots@lemmy.world · 4 pts · 251d

I have a couple friends who moved to Florida, mostly for a job. It didn't last long, they're back in the land of the free again.

partial_accumen@lemmy.world · 3 pts · 251d

Then again, I don’t want to live in Ohio either. Yet here we are.

Well, at least its cheaper cost of living than FL.

RBWells@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 251d

I'm from here. The cities are still ok. The culture war bullshit is at least partly smoke and mirrors, there was still a teacher doing a drag routine at my kid's middle school talent show at the performing arts school (and if you've never seen the talent show at a performing arts school, I recommend it.). Teachers still addressed my trans kid as they preferred. They broke New College for sure, though , that is terrible. The beaches are still ok.

If I EVER run for office here, my slogan will be MFFA, Make Florida Freaky Again. The conservative assholes trying to squeeze us into a mainstream tight laced conservative hellhole have mistaken our mix of freaks and diversity for something homogeneous, like they think you can just average us out and squeeze it farther to the right, but that average was made up of a population that is so diverse no matter what axis you spin it on, I don't think you can bleach & iron it out like they seem to.

So yeah it's getting worse, but is not yet as bad as when I was growing up (it was extremely violent down here). So my hope remains. All my kids are progressive.

jordanlund@lemmy.world MOD · 8 pts · 251d (2 replies)
nanoswarm9k@lemmus.org · 9 pts · 251d

Thanks for replying. I'm borrowing your nice citation.

Been seeing too much of this on fedi the last few months. And 'autistic (object)' as an insult. Like fedi isn't built by neurospice and queerdom.

Folks can leave slurs and bullying on meta/truth.soc federations.

iambatman1469@ttrpg.network · 2 pts · 251d
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gustofwind@lemmy.world · 11 pts · 251d (1 reply)

lmao these rich fucks WANT to pay more because it's a status symbol to other rich people that they can afford what others cannot

you have to be so goddam stupid to believe anything they say ever

some_kind_of_guy@lemmy.world · 3 pts · 251d

Also, like everyone else, rich people like living in nice places with proper modern amenities and stable government

finitebanjo@lemmy.world · 11 pts · 251d (1 reply)

This is interesting because it contradicts past examples such as London. It's slightly less interesting, though, because the Rich leaving actually doesn't have a lot of practical consequences: they're leeches on the local economy and outsource labor often.

oascany@lemmy.world · 12 pts · 250d

London is an outlier quoted as the rule. London attracted rich people from all over the world with tax cuts and benefits. The leeches leeched and predictably contributed nothing. Since this is unsustainable, they raised taxes again. Wealth flight occured because the people that left had only moved there for the tax savings. London was not their home, they never tried to make it their home.

notsure@fedia.io · 10 pts · 251d

...as much as they campaign against it, wealthy people understand that when the chips fall, the "fairest of them all" always wins...they will steal and cheat as much for as long as they can, but most understand the guillotine...this is not new...this has been happening for about, quick and check my post history, 4000-3000 years...we decided pyramids were more effective and pretty...

ramenshaman@lemmy.world · 10 pts · 251d (1 reply)

escape to Florida

Lol

SaveTheTuaHawk@lemmy.ca · 1 pts · 251d

Snake Pliskin!? I thought you were retired!

madcaesar@lemmy.world · 10 pts · 250d (1 reply)

He's been in office for two weeks and hasn't fixed all the problems yet!!! What a sham! I'm totally voting Republican now!!!

..... People are fucking idiots

jjjalljs@ttrpg.network · 6 pts · 250d

He's not even in office until January , so anyone sincerely saying that has an extra layer of idiocy.

LanguageIsCool@lemmy.world · 9 pts · 251d
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SlartyBartFast@sh.itjust.works · 7 pts · 251d

What a surprise

iambatman1469@ttrpg.network · 7 pts · 251d
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AdolfSchmitler@lemmy.world · 6 pts · 251d (1 reply)

I imagine the ones who do want to leave are having trouble selling their $30 million mansions.

ameancow@lemmy.world · 6 pts · 251d
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UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world · 5 pts · 251d

Not even sworn in yet and Mamdani is already failing to deliver on his promises of lower Manhattan rental prices.

JTode@lemmy.world · 4 pts · 250d

They know that whatever their money religion's ministers say, at street level, NYC will be a great place to live, if Mamdani gets his way.

helvetpuli@sopuli.xyz · 3 pts · 251d (1 reply)

That's too bad

Drusas@fedia.io · 3 pts · 251d

It's good for the well-off to be pro-socialism.

M0oP0o@mander.xyz · 3 pts · 251d

Why is this being stated as a good thing? This is a massive issue that city faces, these are nothing more then investments.

UltraMagnus0001@lemmy.world · 3 pts · 251d

Massachusetts made a rich people tax and more rich people moved in

Gladaed@feddit.org · 1 pts · 250d

"there is no mamdami effect" Following his election: "25% Signed Contract increase"

Make up your mind. They can't be true at the same time.

prime_number_314159@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 250d

In case anyone is curious: https://elliman.com/media/New_York_NSC_11_2025_9f76091f82.pdf

Sales of all housing types are up, but sales of $4 million and up properties are up more than the rest of the market.

m3t00@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 250d

whose not welcome in NY?

Rhoeri@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 250d

I remember my father telling me that airplanes would fall from the sky if we elected Obama. He’s just as fucking stupid now.

CharlesDarwin@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 250d

I'm reminded of the rich AF Hollywood supposed leftists that were saying they'd move to Canada if Bush won his first term. And then his second term.

I mean, under W? Why would they move to Canada, exactly?

ZK686@lemmy.world · -5 pts · 250d (2 replies)

I'm a Republican and I could have told you this. Both sides are guilty of over-hyping negativity for certain politicians, and it never turns out to be that bad.

Maroon@lemmy.world · 4 pts · 250d
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jjjalljs@ttrpg.network · 3 pts · 250d

I’m a Republican

In 2025? Why on earth? No Republican policy is good. Their policies don't align with their marketing.

quick_snail@feddit.nl · -8 pts · 251d (8 replies)

This is bad. He's supposed to be making rent not go up

qarbone@lemmy.world · 14 pts · 251d (4 replies)

These are house sales, not rentals.

quick_snail@feddit.nl · -2 pts · 251d (3 replies)

And we shouldn't be able to buy houses? What's your point?

qarbone@lemmy.world · 6 pts · 251d (2 replies)

My point is he talked about tackling rampantly increasing rent prices, not making it easier to buy houses in NYC. There is not a feasible way he can make those multi-million dollar homes affordable for the types of people he spoke of helping afford rent in the city.

So rich people buying luxury homes (that seem to already exist) is outside the purview of his campaign promises, and don't reflect on him much except to say "rich people are also interested in Mamdani's future NYC."

quick_snail@feddit.nl · 2 pts · 251d (1 reply)

Sure there is. Tax vaccant houses, evict the rich absentee landlords, and turn it into free housing.

ronl2k@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 250d

Vacant owned houses are taxed. Abandoned houses are not.

SaveTheTuaHawk@lemmy.ca · 3 pts · 251d (2 replies)

These are $4M condo boxes in the sky.

quick_snail@feddit.nl · 1 pts · 251d (1 reply)

Yes, unoccupied ones. We could house a lot of people in them.

ronl2k@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 250d

Trust me, the last thing you want to do is give unoccupied rich people's housing to the poor for free, or nearly free.

velindora@lemmy.cafe · -15 pts · 251d

Exactly. Zero things will change with him – good and bad, nothing will happen