The rich will get richer while the rest of us will become poorer due to our pay not beating inflation. You know, the same as every year since market deregulation in the 80.

The global economy is severely weakened, but stable. There is also a long list of developments that could crater everything, both literally and figuratively, and very little to look forward to for the vast majority of the population.

Best case scenario is the ending of multiple hostilities, allowing the resumption of trade, and a slow grinding recovery.

Worst case scenario is an extinction event, either caused by escalation in Ukraine, or to a lesser extent Iran, leading to nuclear conflict.

Both extreme's are unlikely, and the entire range between them is just various levels of who is going to get fucked.

I have no idea what an economic crisis would look like anymore. Ever since 2008, it seems the playback for any sign of economic trouble has been printing ridiculous amounts of money and shoving it directly into the pockets of rich people while playing a shell game with bad debts. This seems to allow the terrible economy to keep limping along.

I’m pretty gloomy based on

• Pax Americana destabilizing/collapsing; wouldn’t be surprised to see some minor parties make a move
• Hormuz will remain closed, because USA is anti-diplomatic and Iran has nothing to lose
• AI spending will continue, but the money will start to need to be real, and the firings will continue until AI wins
• El Niño will further disrupt food security
• global warming will disrupt everything

I don't think the "economy" has ever actually picked up in my lifetime. At least not for the working class, I don't give two fucks if something happens to billionaires.

Leading economic indicators are slightly down: https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/

Economic sentiment (one example https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/ ) is sharply down.

Predicting the economy is difficult, many different people bet real money both ways.

The best summarization I recommend considering is the discussion of the "K" shaped economy. Standards seem to be shifting, those with wealth seem to be doing well if not growing. Those at the margin or poorer seem to be getting worse. So you can have two true statements that the stock market is soaring and GDP is growing, AND most people are facing declining economic prospects.

I'm a stranger on the Internet, so don't put too much weight on my analysis. Check historically reputable resources and even then take their predictions with a grain of salt.

The optimistic scenario for the economy is a pessimistic scenario for the world.

For the economy to do well would require the AI bubble to not pop. It would mean that these absurd valuations for the AI companies turn out to be correct. That all the circular financing somehow comes good and all these ridiculous-seeming bets about the future of AI turn out to be at least partially correct. It will require that the companies that fired workers to replace them with chatbots turned out to have made a good and profitable decision. It's the scenario where Musk becomes a trillionaire.

Bad.

It looks bad.

I’m no expert, but I’d say everything looks pretty bad. AI bubble, housing crisis, climate change, Iran. I’m pretty sure as soon as any big money player blinks, things are gonna crumble fast.

I don't know about any global crisis, however I'm feeling optimistic about the Russian invasion ending within a year, hopefully allowing my country (Finland) to continue trading. I also hope fossil fuel usage starts declining. I'm feeling cautiously optimistic, atleast about my country.

Next year could be slightly better or worse. The next decade will definitely be worse, as climate change really starts to bite. Over the next century? We are as fucked as the planet will be, unless some serious societal changes happen. Trouble is they won't happen while billionaire psychopaths control everything.

Private equity black box Enron style collapse taking down a couple of over leveraged major banks requiring trillion dollar taxpayer bailout and the total dismantling of any social programs in the name of austerity

In other words, it's socialism or barbarism

Next year? Hard to say. If Starmer gets ousted, which looks more and more likely, then that'll probably mean a cabinet reshuffle. Honestly can't say I've been too impressed by Rachel Reeves' efforts, but then again I imagine it's hard to totally insulate the economy from a mad bloke who's seemingly trying his level best to destabilise the entire world.

If Burnham or Miliband do get elected, then I imagine we'll do ok.

F U C K E D

It really depends where.

I'm fairly optimistic about most of EU. Last time we had energy crisis they put windfall taxes on energy and banking sectors to stop price gauging. They are already talking about doing the same thing which will slow down inflation. Spain, where I live, invested heavily into renewables in the last couple of years so the current fossil fuel increases don't have almost any effect on electricity prices. There's continuing push for public transport and most people can survive with minimal driving. My guess is food prices will go up, unemployment will go up, growth will slow down in many sectors but it will be manageable.

In US though... Inflation will skyrocket (both because of food and energy), people won't be able to go anywhere, the completely inept government will not be able to handle the crisis and probably will just continue to ignore it. I expect widespread hunger and misery.

I think we're close to needing wheelbarrows to buy bread

I dont know. It got bad in 1929 but it's a very different world now where things occur and get fixed a lot quicker.

Back then the US was in a depression for 10 years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression

I try not to

The USA is fucked with its fossil fuels addiction, but I feel like the rest of world is going to be OK since the movement towards renewable energy, public transport, and electric vehicles is more serious than ever

Hmm. Insane is probably the best bet, rather than good or bad. The AI bubble is set to pop, but no one knows when it will because most thought it was going to repeatedly over the last year but it didn't. The big tech IPOs are going to be devastating to anyone with a 401k. The possibility of a 'super el nino' year could be very damaging for North Americans. The shipping crisis has only begun to really hit so energy crises are going to be likely to hit important industries like food, possibly at the same time they are dealing with the input shortages.

Of course, the tech bros insist AI is going to make everything super easy and cheap to make at some point super-super-soon, so there's always hope they aren't full of shit, right?