Iran-US war latest: Swiss peace talks abruptly cancelled after Trump boasts of Tehran’s ‘unconditional surrender’
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-us-war-live-trump-deal-strait-of-hormuz-supreme-leader-b2998873.html
376 points · 88 comments · view on lemmy.world
88 Comments
Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works · 129 pts · 66d
For the people who didn't read the article - apparently everyone in this thread - the reason for the postponement is not Trump's comments, despite how the headline makes it sound.
Iran are smart enough to let Trump mouth off. What killed the talks is that Israel killed a bunch more people in Lebanon today.
This was inevitable. Iran wants a muzzled Israel as a condition of the war ending. Israel doesn't want the war to end with anything less than the total destruction of Iran (they certainly don't want a capitulation that actually leaves Iran stronger). So Israel are going to deliberately break the ceasefire until one of three things happens;
As I've noted elsewhere, this war isn't remotely close to over. US vs Iran was the pre-show. Defeating AIPAC's iron grip on US politics is the main event.
tired_n_bored@lemmy.world · 18 pts · 66d
Stupid headlines
Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works · 17 pts · 66d
Annoyingly, it's technically accurate, but extremely misleading.
If I say my friend died after eating at Arby's, while neglecting to mention the part where he went to a bar, got stinking drunk and wrapped his car around a tree, the entire statement is technically true. Those events did happen, in that order. He certainly didn't die before eating at Arby's. But there's an implied cause and effect that has nothing to do with the reality.
Waraugh@lemmy.dbzer0.com · 3 pts · 66d
The fortune teller gave me some grim news, she said that I’m going to die after eating at Arby’s 8(. I haven’t been to one in decades but now I’ll never go back for sure.
Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works · 1 pts · 66d
Technically, some day I will die after eating at Arby's and that's a horrifying thought.
MoonMoon@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 65d
What if I've never eaten at an Arby's? Am I technically immortal?
Sludge@sh.itjust.works · 1 pts · 65d
Probably, the unfortunate part is that you're going to die now that you've posted a comment referring to Arby's on Lemmy
HubertManne@piefed.social · 15 pts · 66d
Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works · 6 pts · 66d
That doesn't solve the strait, and the US is about a month away from having too little crude oil to actually run their refineries (you have to maintain a certain pressure level in the pipes or the whole system stops). We haven't seen the real oil crisis yet. The real oil crisis is 10x gas prices, rationing, grounded planes... It would be cataclysmic.
Trump has to pick an option here. If declaring victory and walking away was possible he would have done it already.
cmbabul@slrpnk.net · 1 pts · 65d
I’ve been telling everyone to enjoy this summer, cause this is the end of the gravy train. Everything is going to get much much worse
HubertManne@piefed.social · 1 pts · 65d
oh I was not way implying it would.
87Six@lemmy.zip · 10 pts · 65d
Does he realize he could just bomb israel instead? Is he stupid?
tigeruppercut@lemmy.zip · 6 pts · 65d
No. Yes.
Agent641@lemmy.world · 6 pts · 66d
A forever war, then?
stringere@sh.itjust.works · 8 pts · 66d
We have ways been at war with Eastasia.
dreadbeef@lemmy.dbzer0.com · 2 pts · 66d
West Asia
stringere@sh.itjust.works · 1 pts · 66d
Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works · 4 pts · 66d
Currently, based on public statements from him and Vance, it actually looks like Trump thinks a fight with AIPAC is more winnable than a fight with the global oil market. Both he and Vance have been pretty openly threatening Israel. Whether they'll have the spine to put some steel in those threats is to be seen, but that seems to be the direction they're leaning, at least for now.
badgermurphy@lemmy.world · 5 pts · 66d
Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works · 1 pts · 66d
Yeah, it's pretty astonishing. I never thought I'd see the day.
mrdown@lemmy.dbzer0.com · 2 pts · 66d
4 - like in 2006. Hezbollah force israel to retreat
ExLisper@lemmy.curiana.net · -3 pts · 66d
My bet is on 1. I don't see a way for 3 to happen and 1 is a better outcome for Iran than 2.
It makes sense for Iran to sacrifice Lebanon now and use their control over the strait to pressure other countries to stop supporting Israel. They will not defeat Israel now but if this deal is implemented they have a chance to do it in the future.
Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works · 9 pts · 66d
Hard disagree. Right now I give 1 less than about a 5% chance. Iran have repeatedly demonstrated that they fully believe they have the US by the balls (they're right). And Iran stakes a lot of their regional power on their control over groups like Hezbollah. Abandoning one of them would be a huge blow. They're not going to resort to that unless they get desperate, and currently they're as far from desperate as they could possibly be. They have no reason to back down on this and plenty to lose by doing so. The only way that math changes is if Trump pulls out some crazy left field move to radically reshape the power balance. I don't think he's capable of that.
ExLisper@lemmy.curiana.net · 2 pts · 66d
So what do you think will happen? The strait is closed permanently?
Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works · 4 pts · 66d
It's between the other two options. Either Trump commits to a full invasion, or he commits to a fight with AIPAC.
I'm about a 40/60 split between those right now. Theoretically Israel are backing down given their agreement to a ceasefire with Hezbollah today, but a) that doesn't mean they won't come for blood in the midterms, and b) there's a good chance they're playing nice until they can create some kind of false flag attack from Hezbollah as a pretext to resume hostilities and shit-can the deal.
badgermurphy@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 66d
ExLisper@lemmy.curiana.net · -2 pts · 66d
This would take many years. I don't think Trump or Lebanon can wait that long, he seams pretty desperate. We already know he's unable to pressure Israel so his only option is to pressure Iran by doing something stupid. I really home Iran will take the huge win they already got and pass on Lebanon for now. The other options are pretty terrible for everyone.
badgermurphy@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 66d
teyrnon@sh.itjust.works · 1 pts · 66d
Nah, it's forever war. That is the reason for this, not the stated ones, Israel is using it's epstein blackmail to keep war going for domestic political purposes. War is fun when you have overwhelming technological superiority and unlimited money.
Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works · 4 pts · 66d
That's certainly Israel's goal.
That said, Trump and Vance have now both progressed to openly threatening Israel in public, which suggests that either Israel haven't fully played their hand yet, aren't holding as much as we think, or have too much to lose from any blackmail material getting out in the open. Keep in mind that Epstein being an Israeli political operative cuts both ways; I'm sure there's a lot in those files that could seriously damage Israel if it got out. If it were publicly known that they were, say, trafficking children for political favour with US politicians, that's the sort of thing that could be really bad for them. Not saying that happened, but we've not got much reason to believe it didn't at this point.
If Israel had enough usable blackmail on Trump and his crew to get their way here, I think we'd already be two months into an invasion, not discussing US surrender. Why wait this long to use it if you have it?
teyrnon@sh.itjust.works · 0 pts · 66d
Nah, Israel has the usuable blackmail, not just epstein stuff either to be sure. Invading Iran was never feasible, it would seriously take a million troops even for a half assed iraq style invasion, and Iran has mountains, and is 5x the size.
Israel doesn't actually care about Iran, they are a foil for their politicians. They know they've been lying about them for decades, and while they do want to hurt them, that is not their reason, forever war for domestic political purposes is.
This will not end, even when it seems like it ended, it will keep on, this is forever war, and Israel is going to turn lenanon into a series of ghettos.
Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works · 1 pts · 66d
You're correct, but I think what you're missing is that this has nothing to do with the political calculus currently taking place in the White House. If they were capable of realistically assessing military threats they wouldn't have been blindsided by Iran's ability to strike at their military bases or by the closure of the strait. Trump truly believes that the power of the US military is infinite. What's holding him back from an invasion isn't a fear of losing, it's a fear of the political cost of being seen to sign up the US to another decades long occupation.
Israel cares very much about Iran, because Iran is still a serious threat to them. They can have their forever war without Iran in the picture, they've got an almost unlimited supply of local adversaries to pick fights with. But Iran is currently by far the most dangerous of those allies to Israel, at least in Israel's estimation.
teyrnon@sh.itjust.works · 0 pts · 66d
I was going to take issue with the calculus term you used, but as I believe calculus is measuring the area of probability curves, it might fit. The probability curve of fucking children on tape being released.
That said, Iran is not a real threat to Israel and we all know it. Iran can't do shit to Israel, that has overwhelming advantage. Any suggestion to the contrary is Israel playing their sheep.
To get back to the calculus, it has nothing to do with winning or stopping Iran from whatever. Why anyone would take them at their word at this point is beyond me, not the least on this issue.
mrdown@lemmy.dbzer0.com · 1 pts · 66d
Israel do care about Iran. It want is fully destroyed. It thought arming some protesters and factions like the kurd would have created an civil war
teyrnon@sh.itjust.works · 0 pts · 66d
No, they didn't. They have betrayed the kurds a number of times, and knew they wouldn't trust them, rightly so.
You are confusing what the Israelis say they are doing with what they are actually doing.
mrdown@lemmy.dbzer0.com · 1 pts · 66d
Israeli media itself admit that the plan existed. The idf said it has small chance of succeed but leaders ignore warnings all the time. Netanyahu still wanted to do it. There is no PR benefits to admit a failure of a plan
https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-israeli-plan-for-kurdish-invasion-of-iran-reportedly-collapsed-amid-leaks-distrust/
Big_Boss_77@fedinsfw.app · 104 pts · 66d
You keep using that word...I do not think it means what you think it means.
adam_y@lemmy.world · 96 pts · 66d
UncleArthur@lemmy.world · 77 pts · 66d
This is the terrifying bit to me, FTA:
In his latest interview, Trump told Axios that there are “no limits” to his power and the peace deal is “probably is unconditional surrender” of Iran.
Trump was asked what the conflict had taught him about the limits of his power. Trump replied: "I haven't learned that lesson yet. I know there are, but there are no limits."
HobbitFoot@thelemmy.club · 22 pts · 66d
Yeah. He is either incredibly delusional about what is going on or his administration is really great at keeping him in the dark.
anomnom@sh.itjust.works · 13 pts · 66d
He keeps himself in the dark, because his brain doesn’t work.
Both because of dementia and because of life long narcissism at least.
Pringles@sopuli.xyz · 5 pts · 66d
It would be incredibly sad if it didn’t have such widespread consequences. He always was a dumb narcissist, but he really is deteriorating mentally quickly in the past year, and he never was that bright to begin with. He should be in an elderly home, not the oval office.
teyrnon@sh.itjust.works · 3 pts · 66d
He is a dishonest piece of shit, so all of these can be true.
Bogus007@lemmy.zip · 7 pts · 66d
Sounds a bit like this Austrian wannabe painter. He also thought that there is no limit.
loutr@sh.itjust.works · 2 pts · 66d
The fuck does that mean
redsand@infosec.pub · 68 pts · 66d
Not like Israel was ever going to get on board anyway. Deal was dead from day 1. Same pump n dump every week
Alcoholicorn@mander.xyz · 16 pts · 66d
America holds the leash; Israel depends on America's diplomatic, military, and financial support to continue existing. Every time a US president has tugged at the leash, Israel has come to heel.
Serinus@lemmy.world · 20 pts · 66d
This is the smallest president we've ever had.
ITGuyLevi@programming.dev · 12 pts · 66d
Plus he is 100% compromised, there is no way they don't have blackmail on him. Given his (the shitbirds) history, both recent and ancient, I wonder what type of blackmail would actually change the minds of his supporters or convince the US to actually pursue justice on his stained ass.
Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works · 10 pts · 66d
Epstein was literally an Israeli political operative. They know where every single body is buried.
Serinus@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 66d
Honestly I think the reason Russia has a bit less hold is that the pee tape (presuming 14 year olds or so) simply doesn't matter as much as it once did.
Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works · 2 pts · 66d
America may hold Israel's leash, but AIPAC holds the GOPs balls in a vice.
Remember, Trump is signing this surrender document because he sees this as the least damaging option politically.Now he's going to have to weigh the damage of a full scale war with Iran against the damage of angering one of the most powerful political groups in America.
AIPAC have always played both sides; they're with the GOP right now because the GOP offered full throated support of their genocide in Gaza, while the Dems only offered lukewarm support. But they'll gladly flip to being all in on the Dems, with whom they still have very close ties, if that's what it takes to get Trump out of power. Either that or they'll engineer a Never-Trumper coup within the GOP. Or both.
And that's before we even consider that Israel certainly has all the real dirt on Epstein.
Controlling Israel is easy. Controlling AIPAC is going to be the biggest political bloodbath of our lifetimes.
mrdown@lemmy.dbzer0.com · 7 pts · 66d
The so called lukewarm support
During Biden
70% of all structures in Gaza were damaged or destroyed
92% of all housing units destroyed or damaged 88% of school buildings were damaged or destroyed
80% of key water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) facilities
Only 16 out of 36 hospitals were partially functioning, facing critical shortages of fuel, medicine, and clean water.
75% of agricultural land, including orchards and greenhouses, was damaged or destroyed
edit: the sources
https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/01/1158741
https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/spotlights/2024/gaza-is-in-ruins-after-israels-yearlong-offensive-rebuilding-may-take-decades
https://www.dezeen.com/2025/01/22/gaza-housing-92-per-cent-destroyed-damaged-un-report
https://unosat.org/products/4130
https://reliefweb.int/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/devastating-lack-shelter-exacerbates-risk-harm-palestinians-gaza
https://reliefweb.int/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/verification-damages-schools-based-proximity-damaged-sites-gaza-occupied-palestinian-territory-update-9-may-2025
https://reliefweb.int/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/gaza-destroying-agricultural-lands-and-blocking-food-aid-israel-uses-starvation-weapon-war-against-civilians-enar
tabarnaski@sh.itjust.works · 2 pts · 66d
You have sources for this?
mrdown@lemmy.dbzer0.com · 5 pts · 66d
https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/01/1158741
https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/spotlights/2024/gaza-is-in-ruins-after-israels-yearlong-offensive-rebuilding-may-take-decades
https://www.dezeen.com/2025/01/22/gaza-housing-92-per-cent-destroyed-damaged-un-report
https://unosat.org/products/4130
https://reliefweb.int/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/devastating-lack-shelter-exacerbates-risk-harm-palestinians-gaza
https://reliefweb.int/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/verification-damages-schools-based-proximity-damaged-sites-gaza-occupied-palestinian-territory-update-9-may-2025
https://reliefweb.int/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/gaza-destroying-agricultural-lands-and-blocking-food-aid-israel-uses-starvation-weapon-war-against-civilians-enar
tabarnaski@sh.itjust.works · 1 pts · 66d
Thanks
Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works · 1 pts · 66d
Yes, exactly. But they also wrung their hands about it and cried some crocodile tears in public, which was enough to get AIPAC to fully side with the GOP.
mrdown@lemmy.dbzer0.com · 1 pts · 66d
My issue is the word lukewarm. It was not lukewarm in fact it was worse during Biden then during Trump. Both are equally responsible for the genocide regardless.
Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works · 0 pts · 66d
The notion that Biden more strongly supported Isreal's genocide than Trump has is ludicrous. And that's not a defence of Biden, it's just a simple fact. It's like pointing out that John Wayne Gacy killed more people than Ted Bundy. You're still allowed to consider both of them despicable monsters.
And yes, they're both equally responsible, but I never mentioned responsibility, did I? The point was always about who AIPAC wanted to hitch their wagon to, not who actually did what harm.
mrdown@lemmy.dbzer0.com · 2 pts · 66d
I literally gave you the data showing that Biden is worse. Biden lied about seeking a cease fire blamed Hamas for it when it was Israel who kept refusing to accept and add new terms. The term lukewarm is ridiculous whatever you apply it to Biden or Trump.
https://internationalpolicy.org/publications/the-biden-administrations-false-history-of-ceasefire-negotiations/
I am tired about all the talk about Aipac too. Aipac is funded by Americans , shitty American Politicians willfully accepted being funded by them and stupid American willfully voted for them for decades
theacharnian@lemmy.ca · 3 pts · 66d
I think you're underestimating the extent to which if the US establishment decides AIPAC is a problem for its own interests they can destroy its influence overnight. Especially with weakened democratic norms and checks and balances, no group, no matter how well connected can be safe from an unhinged executive acting in the name of "saving the country". If AIPAC becomes a problem to them, if it no longer serves them, they will deal with it. Similar to how whoever doesn't play nice with Putin meets various kinds of windows.
It is not an accident that a part of the MAGAsphere has already pivoted against Israel. And remember that the fascists have no actual solutions to anything, just an infinite progression of "purification". They would have zero qualms about going full antisemite within the US if it suited them. And when that time comes, the Zionists will experience the actual difference between antisemitism and antizionism in practice.
Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works · 1 pts · 66d
Not underestimating that at all, I just think it's going to take a LOT for the administration to get there. AIPAC's influence and money have a massive effect on US elections. There's a reason both parties are so friendly to them even when public opinion is decidedly against Israel.
Money is votes in US elections. I sincerely doubt that the current administration is going to end Citizens United just to shut out Israel.
theacharnian@lemmy.ca · 1 pts · 66d
Oh yes, I agree. It would be a major major shift.
Alcoholicorn@mander.xyz · 1 pts · 65d
Because AIPAC's policy aligns with the military-industrial complex. Funding Israel funds Boeing, Lockheed, Raytheon, etc, whom funds their campaigns.
redsand@infosec.pub · -1 pts · 66d
Oh. You were serious. Let me laugh harder. HAHAHAHAHA!
Israel led a successful campaign to capture political assets through a combination of blackmail, political lobbying (it's not only AIPAC), spying through government software they sell and decades of interweaving into US defense.
The 80 year old man has the leash tied on and can't let go
ms_lane@lemmy.world · 50 pts · 66d
Wrong.
Also wrong.
There it is.
teyrnon@sh.itjust.works · 3 pts · 66d
He promised unconditional surrender, the media is saying he did not deliver that, and he looks like a bitch, which he is, and so now is just guiding his sheep and trolls and thralls to pretend he won so he doesn't look like a bitch.
He's not fooling anyone outside the flock though. President dickhead is a bitch. He's Israel's bitch.
Wrongdoer2@sh.itjust.works · 45 pts · 66d
Hahahahahahahaha fucking hell
MrSulu@lemmy.ml · 40 pts · 66d
He single handedly save the US from the jaws of success
Spacehooks@reddthat.com · 2 pts · 66d
In so many ways.
Ghyste@sh.itjust.works · 28 pts · 66d
Fucking idiot.
Mihies@programming.dev · 25 pts · 66d
The remaining Orange's
freefew brain cells did an unconditional surrender.betterdeadthanreddit@lemmy.world · 13 pts · 66d
Really makes you feel for the attempted assassins, they had a tough marksmanship challenge when trying to liberate those cells.
Thebeardedsinglemalt@lemmy.world · 3 pts · 66d
His sphincter unconditionally surrendered a decade ago
JustJack23@slrpnk.net · 21 pts · 66d
To avoid this the next version of the memorandum of understanding must have a specific clause highlighting that Trump is a little bitch.
muusemuuse@sh.itjust.works · 20 pts · 66d
TACO time again?
Tronn4@lemmy.world · 6 pts · 66d
Mighty morphin taco time!
com@mander.xyz · 13 pts · 66d
What can be done about these terrible click-bait "news" headlines? It's just awful. A high school newspaper has more accurate headlines. Personally, I'd like to see news organizations that do this banned from being shared here if the poster uses the canned spam title with the post.
Maybe there is a news instance that doesn't allow this. I'll be outside shouting at clouds.
GreenKnight23@lemmy.world · 3 pts · 66d
then nothing would be posted.
I don't disagree with your point that editorialized headlines are just awful, but if you were to ban sources based on this criteria on lemmy, the information just wouldn't be posted on lemmy.
nickiwest@lemmy.world · 3 pts · 65d
The thing that annoys me more is that the article and the headline have been updated now to say that the talks were called off because of Israeli strikes on Hezbollah.
I was curious not so much about what Trump said, but whether it actually affected negotiations.
Miller@lemmy.world · 10 pts · 66d
Trump boasts of Tehran’s [start mumble] acceptance of our [end mumble] ‘unconditional surrender’
Akasazh@lemmy.world · 7 pts · 66d
There weren't any conditions left after you fulfilled them all...
Signtist@bookwyr.me · 4 pts · 66d
I got a free banana from the store! All I had to do was give them $10 first!
Akasazh@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 66d
I mean what can a banana cost?
fox2263@lemmy.world · 7 pts · 66d
Ah what a waste of time and money for everyone
M0oP0o@mander.xyz · 6 pts · 65d
Oh dear, is he really going to fail at failing?
echodot@feddit.uk · 3 pts · 65d
Well that was predictable. The gigantic man child was always going to screw it up. Someone needs to push him out of window or something.
ILikeBoobies@lemmy.ca · 3 pts · 65d
teyrnon@sh.itjust.works · 2 pts · 66d
I hate to be right, but this deal being bullshit was the easiest call in the world.
Gates9@sh.itjust.works · 0 pts · 66d
This war isn’t over. It will be on and off intermittently for years, in the meantime the United States will continue its “Pivot to Asia” policy. Right now they are fomenting color revolution in Indonesia with the intent of securing the Straight of Malacca. Also creating chaos between Cambodia and Thailand. They have converted the USMC to an interdiction force that will be used to hijack oil tankers and other vessels on the open seas. This is all part of a wider ranging plan to choke off China’s flow of resources with the ultimate intent of quelling China’s ascent and possibly direct military confrontation down the road.