Senators demand crackdown on wildfire “prediction market” bets | Fire experts warn such markets could incentivize arson.
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2026/08/senators-demand-crackdown-on-wildfire-prediction-markets/
607 points · 86 comments · view on lemmy.world
86 Comments
SnotFlickerman@lemmy.blahaj.zone · 137 pts · 37d
The fact that the US has turned literally everything into something you can gamble on really shows how much of a failure of a society the US truly is.
The social contract has been dead for 50 years and yet people younger than fifty still out there acting like nothings wrong, and all you need to do is "get a better job" and everything will be fine.
Man I'm not sure getting a better job is gonna help me escape climate change exacerbated wildfires, nor the gambling markets that incentivize arson.
eleijeep@piefed.social · 20 pts · 37d
It's the logical conclusion of "individualism."
njordomir@lemmy.world · 14 pts · 37d
Thanks for the insider info. Someone go put a bet on this guy not escaping climate change or arson gambling markets. /s
ColeSloth@discuss.tchncs.de · 6 pts · 37d
You speak as if prediction market gambling started in the US. That's as much bullshit as claiming it started in your country. Things like this have been going on for hundreds of years.
PHLAK@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 36d
Yeah, but not at the scale that apps and the internet allow and with the legal backing of the US government.
Nonconfrontational@lemmy.ml · -2 pts · 37d
And before that 50 years ago, what was the social contract like for a black person, a woman, or a native?
Your rosie view of the past, like America was ever a good place, is telling.
WhyJiffie@sh.itjust.works · 2 pts · 36d
nobody said it was a good place. nobody painted a rosie view of it. we can admit when things get worse.
I wonder why do you have the worst takes whenever I see your name. why are you attacking those that are taken advantage of? whats in it for you for attacking this user?
Nonconfrontational@lemmy.ml · -6 pts · 36d
You view this as an attack on the user and not attempting to disillusion as many Americans as possible? I guess it's more for possible future readers, but it's definitely not an attack on the user.
I don't give a fuck about your opinions on my takes lol.
WhyJiffie@sh.itjust.works · 2 pts · 36d
Disillusion about what? does not seem like that user has written anything out of illusions.
but maybe you should when precisely nobody values what you say
Nonconfrontational@lemmy.ml · -7 pts · 36d
It's funny that you refer to yourself as nobody, if a little sad.
Jyek@sh.itjust.works · 0 pts · 36d
At least he knows he's a nobody, you're the delusional one in this case.
Nonconfrontational@lemmy.ml · -1 pts · 36d
Thanks, doc.
postmateDumbass@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 36d
Where ever was there a good place?
A place without slavery, non consentual servitude, any and all injustuce, famine, or disease?
What is the standatd here?
Nonconfrontational@lemmy.ml · -1 pts · 36d
Because the rest of the world is shit doesn't excuse the countless atrocities of America, lol. Great attempt at deflection, I guess?
postmateDumbass@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 36d
Proof you are just a hater.
LePoisson@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 36d
Do you have any good takes or is your username meant to drip irony and that's the point?
Nonconfrontational@lemmy.ml · -3 pts · 36d
Are you stupid on purpose or does it come naturally?
LePoisson@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 36d
I'd say I mostly come by it naturally but sometimes it's the drugs which, I guess, means it's also on purpose. So both.
I still can't decide if you're an AI bot, a collection of users in a Russian (or other country) troll farm, or just a teenage / early 20s edgelord who's lost their way looking for 4chan.
Like, honestly, it's almost impressive how good you are at rage baiting folks. So far i'm going with your username being an intentionally ironic joke.
UselessAsshole@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 36d
Nonconfrontational@lemmy.ml · -2 pts · 36d
LePoisson@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 36d
I know you don't. Just musing "out loud" for whoever is wasting their time reading these godforsaken comments.
I just hope your attitude and demeanor offline are better than what you put out on Lemmy otherwise you're gonna make life harder for yourself than it needs to be.
Nonconfrontational@lemmy.ml · 0 pts · 36d
Insufferable and pretentious. Oof.
CIA_chatbot@lemmy.world · 113 pts · 37d
No shit you dumbfucks, prediction markets incentivize a fuck load of illegal shit and corruption and should be banned
Thorry@feddit.org · 42 pts · 37d
Even if it were all above board, it's just gambling and should be heavily restricted just as all other forms of betting.
nullspace@lemmy.world · 36 pts · 37d
I'm against gambling, but at least with slot machines and poker tables there isn't a cash incentive to go light the forest on fire.
postmateDumbass@lemmy.world · 4 pts · 36d
With sports betting you are still not allowed to bet on your own games or leauges.
To remove betting on outcomes you control much of.
minorkeys@sh.itjust.works · 15 pts · 37d
Given the texts between Daniel Cormier and Trump's kid, it's very obvious why they're allowing this and what extent they're willing to go to make money.
Pika@sh.itjust.works · 4 pts · 37d
Yeah, just outlaw prediction markets that contain negative values. or political values, like who cares about weather predictions but anythijg that can change society needs a heavy block
UselessAsshole@lemmy.world · 3 pts · 36d
Zarobi@aussie.zone · 2 pts · 37d
These gamble on anything apps are so dystopian it hurts
velma@sh.itjust.works · 44 pts · 37d
This shit makes me particularly upset as the current Washington State fires were caused by an arsonist.
10,000 acres burning and only 13% contained.
SnotFlickerman@lemmy.blahaj.zone · 20 pts · 37d
I'm not even near the fires and I've been cooped up inside for days because the AQI is insanely bad all over the state.
ayyy@sh.itjust.works · 5 pts · 37d
The 3 seasons of Washington: windy rain, smoke, and lukewarm rain.
scrubbles@poptalk.scrubbles.tech · 11 pts · 37d
Right? Now I'm wondering if it was for some bullshit gambling payout.
velma@sh.itjust.works · 9 pts · 37d
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/environment/spokane-arson-suspect-told-prosecutors-he-started-25-other-fires-documents-say/
Maybe, maybe not. This guy has been starting fires for a while apparently and this is after he murdered his father over dishes.
scrubbles@poptalk.scrubbles.tech · 4 pts · 37d
Holy shit 25 fires? It's too bad it took this one to catch him. 1 million seems low for the sheer property value at risk alone, not counting everything else
JasonDJ@lemmy.zip · 4 pts · 37d
That's bond.
That's not the price on his freedom forever. That's the deposit for getting to have freedom while awaiting trial.
Mangoholic@lemmy.ml · 31 pts · 36d
You can bann prediction markets in general
arararagi@ani.social · 4 pts · 36d
How will they make bank predicting military operations?
Lucidlethargy@sh.itjust.works · 30 pts · 37d
Yeah no shit! What the fuck?!
Fuck every person that takes part in a bet like this. I'll put them in the same category as Trump voters. Scorched earth.
Nonconfrontational@lemmy.ml · 15 pts · 37d
Just start a betting pool on if the kalshi or polymarket head offices get firebombed in the next 60 days, problem solved either way.
some_guy@lemmy.sdf.org · 3 pts · 36d
I didn't expect to open the comments and laugh. Well done.
Master_Suck@lemmy.world · 0 pts · 36d
Probably people who live in deserts or otherwise have never seen a tree in their life.
JcbAzPx@lemmy.world · 3 pts · 36d
Cactus and sagebrush burns just as well.
halferect@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 36d
People who live in deserts know three things, drought, fires and flash floods. Fires in the desert happen a lot. Probably way more than anywhere else.
Master_Suck@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 36d
Lemme rephrase a bit: people who bet on this sort of thing are probably ones who have only lived in a desert, never having seen a tree in the first place.
I'm sure there's plenty of fires in a hot place.
halferect@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 35d
Trees exist in the desert
Alvaro@lemmy.blahaj.zone · 26 pts · 37d
Insider trading in my insider trading platform???
ayyy@sh.itjust.works · 2 pts · 37d
It’s……well actually less likely than you’d think but it’s still a big fuckin’ problem.
JcbAzPx@lemmy.world · 22 pts · 36d
We've had major wildfires started by part time firefighters looking to create some work for themselves. Wildfire gambling is pretty much guaranteed to turn all of our countryside into ash.
ivanafterall@lemmy.world · 4 pts · 36d
I bet you it won't.
sundray@lemmus.org · 19 pts · 37d
But moooooonnnnneeyyyy!
FlashMobOfOne@lemmy.world · 16 pts · 37d
It reminds me of a really great line from the movie Coming To America: "Imagine a country so free one can throw glass in its streets."
Donald has personal financial interests in prediction markets and his properties probably have private firefighting. What the fuck does he care?
And for the next two years he's going to have nothing to lose. We'll see if there's any America left once he's done.
ArmchairAce1944@discuss.online · 15 pts · 36d
Why can't these people just go to casinos and lose everything on blackjack and roulette like normal gambling addicts?
billwashere@lemmy.world · 10 pts · 36d
Because you can’t control blackjack and roulette.
Bababasti@feddit.org · 2 pts · 35d
Not with that attitude you can’t
ivanafterall@lemmy.world · 4 pts · 36d
We should have Kalshi bets on whether these people will ever be able to break their gambling addictions.
titanicx@lemmy.zip · 4 pts · 36d
You mean go outside the house? Like some sort of peasant without the internet?
Dookieman12@piefed.social · 14 pts · 37d
But all the other forms of market manipulation are fine. Lol
NikkiDimes@lemmy.world · 3 pts · 37d
"Will Iran be bombed today?"
Mr_Dr_Oink@lemmy.world · 13 pts · 36d
I still can't believe this is a real sentence
Zen_Shinobi@lemmy.world · 12 pts · 37d
They should make wildlifes illegal and this whole thing will stop /s
pipi1234@lemmy.world · 8 pts · 36d
Oh man, This is it. I lost the last remaining smidget of hope on humanity.
Sineljora@sh.itjust.works · 7 pts · 37d
Can we bet on when/if Kalshi headquarters gets burned down?
JasonDJ@lemmy.zip · 5 pts · 37d
That could incentivize arson...
explodicle@sh.itjust.works · 2 pts · 36d
This unironically for every business. Force them to pay us for peace.
Snapz@lemmy.world · 5 pts · 37d
Could? You mean "are actively"
BigMacHole@thelemmy.club · 5 pts · 37d
I PRAY to GOD that Prediction Markets WRITE LEGISLATION to STOP People from putting a Viral Bet on if Billionaire Island in Florida will BURN DOWN! PLEASE just let us bet on OUR deaths NOT the Deaths of Rich People!
-Republican Voters!
Danarchy@lemmy.nz · 4 pts · 37d
Just stick to betting on wholesome things like if a kid’s gonna croak from cancer
explodicle@sh.itjust.works · 1 pts · 36d
Trump Insurance
postmateDumbass@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 36d
Have an opinion on where the next civilian initiated weapon involved mass casuality event will be? Bet it.
Greyghoster@aussie.zone · 4 pts · 36d
Sounds like something Trump would be interested in.
Malyca@lemmy.zip · 4 pts · 37d
Spokane fire was arson, they arrested the guy. Dark days.
TotalCourage007@lemmy.world · 3 pts · 36d
I have a suggestion for the datacenter antifa that might get me banned if I explain it further.
edit: as in I support anti datacenter joke just to be clear.
Formfiller@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 36d
Can we start betting on who gets thrown in the woodchipper first?
Jax@sh.itjust.works · 2 pts · 36d
I think we can all agree that arsonists should be tortured on live television
Soggy@lemmy.world · 11 pts · 36d
No, many of us aren't bloodthirsty psychopaths who hide behind "justice" to satisfy our cruel desires. Torturing criminals doesn't make me feel better or make the world safer.
berno@lemmy.world · 0 pts · 36d
Taking the other side here. Firebugs gotta hang, sorry bud
explodicle@sh.itjust.works · 1 pts · 36d
A properly done hanging isn't torture.
Jax@sh.itjust.works · -5 pts · 36d
The world is burning and these people make it go faster. Sweeping for them is sick and making public examples of the ones who are caught would absolutely scare arsonists into inaction.
But to you we should reward them by feeding and housing them for the rest of their lives.
Soggy@lemmy.world · 7 pts · 36d
Prison isn't a reward and harsh sentences are proven to not deter crime at all yet people still cling to barbarism.
Jax@sh.itjust.works · -4 pts · 36d
No, prison is just a place where criminals can gain access to larger criminal networks and do even more crime.
Soggy@lemmy.world · 5 pts · 36d
That's a problem with the structure but still doesn't make it a reward. This focus on punishment is a big part of why the US has such a shitty recidivism rate.
titanicx@lemmy.zip · 4 pts · 36d
I can tell you somebody that is spent two nights in jail in my entire life. Jail fucking sucks and is no reward. I got to imagine that prison is way fucking worse.
ArmchairAce1944@discuss.online · -1 pts · 36d
Depends on the arson. Do you want the amazon warehouse guy tortured?
Jax@sh.itjust.works · -1 pts · 36d
That's fair, I was thinking of it through the lense of wildfires. I'm not exactly a fan of the pollution but that's besides the point.
ArmchairAce1944@discuss.online · 1 pts · 35d
I am aware. What these people are doing is monstrous.
homesweethomeMrL@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 37d
Yeah 10,000 more on Iran Peace Deal in October
qwerty@discuss.tchncs.de · 1 pts · 36d
Slightly off topics but this reminds me of this video making a case that forest fires are inevitable and the more often they happen the better https://youtu.be/HBluLfX2F_k?t=1448