six months after the bubble "pops" someone will come up with an AI that can grind minecraft for you or whatever, and that'll spark a whole new wave of interest in "robust independant agents" until companies realise that's also not worth 500 trillion
Here’s hoping that because they have crammed this version of ai into everything it could possibly go into, and even a bunch of things it can’t, the hype wagon for the next one is a honey wagon and everyone rightly stays away from it..
He's CEO of a company that went all-in on forcing AI into everything, including all of MS internal procedures.
They made it mandatory to use Copilot for internal performance reviews and writing progress reports. All coding must start with a prompt and devs are called into meetings with HR if they don't use Copilot enough.
He's also in the position to see how little users interact with Copilot, how code quality took a nosedive, how productivity hasn't increased after investing billions, and Linux desktop market share is showing exponential growth now.
It only takes one of these large companies to walk away for everyone else to panic and the bubble will burst. I really hope MS takes a step away from it and actually tries to innovate something.
Apple has been dragging their heels on AI from the start. They got sued by shareholders for not having enough AI in their products fast enough. Makes me wonder if they smelled the shit from the start and have been half-assing it on purpose.
Microsoft has been the opposite. If both of them shrug and say “I guess we’ll just have slightly better digital assistants”, the market might wake up and go “oh, shit.”
I think OpenAI and Anthropic could get bailed bought by MS/Apple/Google in a fire sale. Grok will just suck it or get propped up by Trump.
Its already here, it's called the average Redditor.
This isn't a joke. You already know what a low power LLM is, its a 40W human brain with high school level knowledge and a confident human tone writing on Reddit. But not the entire brain, only the natural language and superficial knowledge part... Meaning having the human is better anyway.
I love your optimism. These are the people who add an S to mass nouns like 'email', and who pluralize with an apostrophe. A successful high-school education isn't being shown, there, at least in terms of literacy (admittedly, we are represented by how we write).
Is it correlative, in that many Redditors live in a country where 54% of them do not communicate above a 6th-grade level?
That’s a massive assumption on your part. Exactly how do you propose that the entire architecture of LLM’s be restructured to not be the massive resource hog desperately seeking a profit that it is? Mind you, it’s shit now and you’re basing your argument on a hypothetical “maybe”, like maybe you’ll win a massive lottery payout tomorrow.
You make a compelling argument, it will never be achieved. I am convinced. Not one human is capable, nor are one thousand humans. It is unsurmountable mountain.
It is the year 5000. Aliens look at the wreckage of earth. They see what little remains of our meager existence. The goal that haunted humanity for all eternity, a doomed plan from the start, only ever resulting in certain failure? making chatbots use as much energy as a gaming rig. It never happened. It was... impossible.
Okay, since its obviously hyperbole that it isnt possible, its a potential outcome so lets return to my original question (deemed a massive assumption on my part by you):
once it no longer needs massive amounts of expensive resources, what then?
They're going to lose their shirts over this shit.
They're trying to force their utopian vision of robot and human slaves serving the "elite", but they need the slave's help to get there. Probably, that time will come, but not in their lifetime, and that's what's pissing them off. It's all about them--their selfish, psychopathic desires, humanity be damned. It's also why they're trying to develop immortality drugs--they see the dream of all past capitalist overlords as finally, possibly in their grasp, but they can't quite get it. They're like frustrated monkeys reaching through the cage bars and fighting each other.
They're going to lose their shirts over this shit.
Lmao billionaires never see consequences. It will implode and millions of regular people will lose their jobs and have the tools they need blow up and stop working. But the billionaire that caused it will be just fine in the end.
Speaking at the World Economic Forum at Davos, Switzerland on Tuesday, Nadella pontificated about what would constitute such a speculative bubble, and said that the long-term success of AI tech hinges on it being used across a broad range of industries — as well as seeing an uptick in adoption in the developing world where it’s not as popular, the Financial Times reports. If AI fails, in other words, it’s everyone else’s fault for not using it.
Nadella explained the pitfalls the AI industry would need to avoid, perhaps betraying his own anxieties about its future.
“For this not to be a bubble by definition, it requires that the benefits of this are much more evenly spread,” Nadella said, as quoted by the FT. The “tell-tale sign of if it’s a bubble,” he added, would be if only tech companies were benefitting from the rise of AI. He gave the example of a pharmaceutical company using AI to accelerate drug trials; it doesn’t need to be used to discover the “magical molecule,” but provide some other tangible, less extraordinary benefit to developing the product.
Nadella is adamant that these kinds of boosts that AI provides will justify AI and carry the industry, stressing less spectacular and more practical applications of the tech.
“I’m much more confident that this is a technology that will, in fact, build on the rails of cloud and mobile, diffuse faster, and bend the productivity curve, and bring local surplus and economic growth all around the world,” he proclaimed.
I’m much more confident that this is a technology that will, in fact, build on the rails of cloud and mobile, diffuse faster, and bend the productivity curve, and bring local surplus and economic growth all around the world,” he proclaimed.
Jesus christ i want to stuff him in a locker and roll it down a hill
Once those companies will be held responsible for everything AI (copyright issues with training, resource waste and people getting harmed and killed from their output), they'll have every reason to be nervous.
Can I just say I love how Iceland treated its 2008 banking collapse? They didn't bail out anyone, but they did protect investments by people. Some banks died, losing their investors billions. People didn't lose their house or their own retirement.
This is the way we should treat all of this. Let the companies die, and let private equity take the hit for being stupid.
Don't forget the arbitrary hardware requirements due windows 11 just in time for pc components to go through the roof, leaving a ton of people unable to upgrade even if they wanted to.
Omg our path forward on how to avoid the consequences of our actions isn't aligned with our fundamental business needs of doing whatever we like with no consequences. If only my MBA training and Six Sigma/Lean Leader certs had prepared me for this. I better go post on LinkedIn about how GenZ did this.
Nadella is adamant that these kinds of boosts that AI provides will justify AI and carry the industry, stressing less spectacular and more practical applications of the tech.
This is a huge about-face on the earlier proclamation. I really wonder what changed his mind from "AI will radically transform every industry" to "it doesn’t need to be used to discover the 'magical molecule,' but provide some other tangible, less extraordinary benefit to developing the product."
Sure, everyone here has seen the writing on the wall for years, but until now his paycheck has depended on him not seeing it. I wonder if he's getting internal pressure from some on the board of directors.
They should. Fuck, AI doesn't even need to implode for them to get bent. I'm forced to do some stuff with it at work for 'research'. Copilot is the worst of the worst. I don't know how they could fork GPT and come up with an even worse product, but there they are.
Lately, no. I had switched to them from Chrome for vanilla testing assuming Microsoft was less able to market my data. Had it running in Linux, no less.
Then they dedicated to dropping manifest v2. YEET
I saw the rebranded o365 to copilot, Making the one last product that some people still had an appetite for look incredibly unappealing.
I mean, they could shut down most of their shit tomorrow and still rake in twenty billion a quarter for the foreseeable future. Because businesses are stupid and pay for it.
He wants more adoption pre-bubblepop, but he’ll probably be the only one besides NVIDIA to actually make money on it. Eventually.
He is nervous because the two groups that they count on to reliably buy their shit, gamers and corporations, are seriously looking into the readily available free alternatives. If they lose them chasing AI, Microsoft is done. They have no way to recover from that.
It's not as hard to become unlocked as you might think. All it takes is someone in IT knowing enough accounting to show how much they can save next quarter switching to Linux servers.
honestly if the technology is lightweight to run on ordinary PC, I'd have tinkered with it long ago. I did try once but it's pretty slow to generate texts on my laptop, I quickly lost interest.
But also the typical implementation of the tech is built on cloud, locked behind registration, is enough to turn me off. It's just like any other free useful tools but works via web that requires login, so I never bother to try.
84 Comments
homes@piefed.world · 145 pts · 220d
Hey, it’s almost as if everyone is realizing that AI is total bullshit .
TheDemonBuer@lemmy.world · 133 pts · 220d
There's clearly an AI bubble. Let's just pop this shit and get it over with. The sooner the market corrects, the sooner it can start recovering.
Lag@piefed.world · 27 pts · 220d
Ah, but don't forget about the second and third bubble.
MECHAGIC@lemmy.blahaj.zone · 12 pts · 220d
theres more bubbles? ☹️
Ummdustry@sh.itjust.works · 32 pts · 220d
six months after the bubble "pops" someone will come up with an AI that can grind minecraft for you or whatever, and that'll spark a whole new wave of interest in "robust independant agents" until companies realise that's also not worth 500 trillion
ApathyTree@lemmy.dbzer0.com · 4 pts · 220d
Here’s hoping that because they have crammed this version of ai into everything it could possibly go into, and even a bunch of things it can’t, the hype wagon for the next one is a honey wagon and everyone rightly stays away from it..
mech@feddit.org · 1 pts · 220d
This looks exactly like the graph of Coronavirus infections in my country.
dejected_warp_core@lemmy.world · 5 pts · 220d
I don't think he knows about second bubble.
UnculturedSwine@lemmy.dbzer0.com · 4 pts · 219d
We've had one yes. What about second bubble?
gravitas_deficiency@sh.itjust.works · 68 pts · 220d
showmeyourkizinti@startrek.website · 4 pts · 219d
Let’s ask Bob Kelso about AI
mech@feddit.org · 64 pts · 220d
He's CEO of a company that went all-in on forcing AI into everything, including all of MS internal procedures.
They made it mandatory to use Copilot for internal performance reviews and writing progress reports. All coding must start with a prompt and devs are called into meetings with HR if they don't use Copilot enough.
He's also in the position to see how little users interact with Copilot, how code quality took a nosedive, how productivity hasn't increased after investing billions, and Linux desktop market share is showing exponential growth now.
He's right to be nervous.
Rooty@lemmy.world · 29 pts · 220d
He's a CEO, they only fail upwards, the only nervousness comes from the fact that his golden parachute might not be big as he thought.
Formfiller@lemmy.world · 17 pts · 220d
Because the deranged pedofile they backed is tanking the dollar. Honestly guillotines are too good for these people I vote woodchipper
Ceruleum@lemmy.wtf · 3 pts · 219d
Legs first.
Shameless@lemmy.world · 60 pts · 220d
It only takes one of these large companies to walk away for everyone else to panic and the bubble will burst. I really hope MS takes a step away from it and actually tries to innovate something.
LordMayor@piefed.social · 39 pts · 220d
Apple has been dragging their heels on AI from the start. They got sued by shareholders for not having enough AI in their products fast enough. Makes me wonder if they smelled the shit from the start and have been half-assing it on purpose.
Microsoft has been the opposite. If both of them shrug and say “I guess we’ll just have slightly better digital assistants”, the market might wake up and go “oh, shit.”
I think OpenAI and Anthropic could get
bailedbought by MS/Apple/Google in a fire sale. Grok will just suck it or get propped up by Trump.wewbull@feddit.uk · 15 pts · 220d
Having just paid Google a billion for them to back Siri, it seems like Apple's play is to have the tick box feature but not develop it themselves.
wavebeam@lemmy.world · -9 pts · 220d
shittydwarf@piefed.social · 58 pts · 220d
He's the guy gonna be left holding the biggest bucket of slop
altphoto@lemmy.today · 55 pts · 220d
If you need a new type of nuclear reactor to power your shit it means your shit is too complicated.
tempest@lemmy.ca · 34 pts · 220d
There are plenty of things that are complicated and could use a new type of nuclear reactor.
Training LLMs just didn't seem to be one of them
flowers_galore2@lemmynsfw.com · 10 pts · 220d
But thanks to Satya I can now right-click a file and select “Summarise”, how is that not a massive MASSIVE productivity boost???
Nosavingthrow@lemmy.world · 6 pts · 220d
IDK about you, but the time it takes for me to actually interface with AI and then verify the AI did things correctly are basically equal.
flowers_galore2@lemmynsfw.com · 2 pts · 219d
Are you being sarcastic too? I really can’t tell anymore with all the clankers these days.
mnemonicmonkeys@sh.itjust.works · 1 pts · 219d
It sounds like you don't bother to check the validity of the output, which is a TERRIVLE habit that will bitr you in the ass eventually
Potatar@lemmy.world · 5 pts · 220d
AI is not complicated (hard but solvable with time and effort), it's complex(easy but numerous and their interactions make it hard)?
sigmoid(aX+b) is not that complicated
RememberTheApollo_@lemmy.world · 16 pts · 220d
That wasn‘t even the argument. The argument is that AI is a resource waste; it uses too much power and water for what is a shit return.
Who cares how complicated it is.
dreadbeef@lemmy.dbzer0.com · -2 pts · 220d
once it no longer needs massive amounts of expensive resources, what then?
kadu@scribe.disroot.org · 7 pts · 220d
Its already here, it's called the average Redditor.
This isn't a joke. You already know what a low power LLM is, its a 40W human brain with high school level knowledge and a confident human tone writing on Reddit. But not the entire brain, only the natural language and superficial knowledge part... Meaning having the human is better anyway.
corsicanguppy@lemmy.ca · 3 pts · 220d
I love your optimism. These are the people who add an S to mass nouns like 'email', and who pluralize with an apostrophe. A successful high-school education isn't being shown, there, at least in terms of literacy (admittedly, we are represented by how we write).
Is it correlative, in that many Redditors live in a country where 54% of them do not communicate above a 6th-grade level?
harrys_balzac@lemmy.dbzer0.com · 1 pts · 219d
How about Louisiana or Mississippi or Missouri high school level?
RememberTheApollo_@lemmy.world · 3 pts · 220d
That’s a massive assumption on your part. Exactly how do you propose that the entire architecture of LLM’s be restructured to not be the massive resource hog desperately seeking a profit that it is? Mind you, it’s shit now and you’re basing your argument on a hypothetical “maybe”, like maybe you’ll win a massive lottery payout tomorrow.
dreadbeef@lemmy.dbzer0.com · -1 pts · 220d
You make a compelling argument, it will never be achieved. I am convinced. Not one human is capable, nor are one thousand humans. It is unsurmountable mountain.
It is the year 5000. Aliens look at the wreckage of earth. They see what little remains of our meager existence. The goal that haunted humanity for all eternity, a doomed plan from the start, only ever resulting in certain failure? making chatbots use as much energy as a gaming rig. It never happened. It was... impossible.
RememberTheApollo_@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 220d
Oh good. If you resort to hyperbole to prove your argument you’ve already lost.
dreadbeef@lemmy.dbzer0.com · -1 pts · 220d
Okay, since its obviously hyperbole that it isnt possible, its a potential outcome so lets return to my original question (deemed a massive assumption on my part by you):
qyron@sopuli.xyz · -5 pts · 220d
What kind of shits require nuclear power to be pushed out, mate? You're getting me worried. Been having your fibers?
DarrinBrunner@lemmy.world · 51 pts · 220d
They're going to lose their shirts over this shit.
They're trying to force their utopian vision of robot and human slaves serving the "elite", but they need the slave's help to get there. Probably, that time will come, but not in their lifetime, and that's what's pissing them off. It's all about them--their selfish, psychopathic desires, humanity be damned. It's also why they're trying to develop immortality drugs--they see the dream of all past capitalist overlords as finally, possibly in their grasp, but they can't quite get it. They're like frustrated monkeys reaching through the cage bars and fighting each other.
ayyy@sh.itjust.works · 14 pts · 220d
Lmao billionaires never see consequences. It will implode and millions of regular people will lose their jobs and have the tools they need blow up and stop working. But the billionaire that caused it will be just fine in the end.
Tartas1995@discuss.tchncs.de · 42 pts · 220d
He is effectively saying specialised ai has a possible future and llm are a huge waste of time and money. But he doesn't know that he is saying that.
ObscureOtter@piefed.ca · 35 pts · 220d
For anyone curious and lazy:
Lemminary@lemmy.world · 19 pts · 220d
Thank you for being my laziness enabler. 🙏
ObscureOtter@piefed.ca · 18 pts · 220d
I would wear a cape, but just too darn lazy.
Taleya@aussie.zone · 10 pts · 220d
Jesus christ i want to stuff him in a locker and roll it down a hill
DFX4509B@lemmy.wtf · 32 pts · 220d
Good, maybe he'll back off on pushing this crap.
reddig33@lemmy.world · 18 pts · 220d
Good, maybe it will be a huge fail and the stockholders will finally fire him.
eskimofry@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 219d
actually let the stockholders also get burned before they do that.. cause fuck speculation
Tollana1234567@lemmy.today · 4 pts · 220d
best he can do is push more into everything windows related.
MushuChupacabra@lemmy.world · 30 pts · 220d
Good.
Treczoks@lemmy.world · 29 pts · 220d
Once those companies will be held responsible for everything AI (copyright issues with training, resource waste and people getting harmed and killed from their output), they'll have every reason to be nervous.
btsax@reddthat.com · 25 pts · 220d
Best we can do is a government bailout
corsicanguppy@lemmy.ca · 18 pts · 220d
Can I just say I love how Iceland treated its 2008 banking collapse? They didn't bail out anyone, but they did protect investments by people. Some banks died, losing their investors billions. People didn't lose their house or their own retirement.
This is the way we should treat all of this. Let the companies die, and let private equity take the hit for being stupid.
TemplaerDude@sh.itjust.works · 6 pts · 220d
That’s not how capitalism works. Everyone else faces the consequences, the ones up top suffer nothing.
n3m37h@sh.itjust.works · 29 pts · 220d
Nervous that AI has been the biggest driver of people switching to linux, I did. I didnt want cortona and I certainly dont want copilot or recall
UnspecificGravity@piefed.social · 18 pts · 220d
Don't forget the arbitrary hardware requirements due windows 11 just in time for pc components to go through the roof, leaving a ton of people unable to upgrade even if they wanted to.
ElcaineVolta@kbin.melroy.org · 28 pts · 220d
seems like, if it's bad for microsoft, it's good for humanity.
Bakkoda@lemmy.world · 27 pts · 220d
Omg our path forward on how to avoid the consequences of our actions isn't aligned with our fundamental business needs of doing whatever we like with no consequences. If only my MBA training and Six Sigma/Lean Leader certs had prepared me for this. I better go post on LinkedIn about how GenZ did this.
paraphrand@lemmy.world · 27 pts · 220d
Jack-Nicholson-Nodding.gifAgent641@lemmy.world · 11 pts · 220d
Starship-troopers-Its-afraid.webmICastFist@programming.dev · 7 pts · 220d
im-doing-my-part.gifignirtoq@feddit.online · 26 pts · 220d
This is a huge about-face on the earlier proclamation. I really wonder what changed his mind from "AI will radically transform every industry" to "it doesn’t need to be used to discover the 'magical molecule,' but provide some other tangible, less extraordinary benefit to developing the product."
Sure, everyone here has seen the writing on the wall for years, but until now his paycheck has depended on him not seeing it. I wonder if he's getting internal pressure from some on the board of directors.
Taleya@aussie.zone · 4 pts · 220d
Shareholders told him he's not getting a golden parachute
echindod@programming.dev · 5 pts · 220d
Oh. He's still got a golden parachute, but rather than being a bazillion crap loads it's only half a bazillion crap loads.
FreddiesLantern@leminal.space · 2 pts · 220d
Only half a bazillion?
Ah man,… oh well, only 3 personal cruise ships this year then I guess. tightens belt
etchinghillside@reddthat.com · 22 pts · 220d
Because his product isn’t winning?
CaptPretentious@lemmy.world · 22 pts · 220d
I mean, none of them are. They're all over invested in a "product" that was DoA. And in the last few years, they've invested trillions of dollars.
rumba@lemmy.zip · 20 pts · 220d
They should. Fuck, AI doesn't even need to implode for them to get bent. I'm forced to do some stuff with it at work for 'research'. Copilot is the worst of the worst. I don't know how they could fork GPT and come up with an even worse product, but there they are.
Jhex@lemmy.world · 13 pts · 220d
That's a Microsoft specialty... have you seen Edge lately?
rumba@lemmy.zip · 7 pts · 220d
Lately, no. I had switched to them from Chrome for vanilla testing assuming Microsoft was less able to market my data. Had it running in Linux, no less.
Then they dedicated to dropping manifest v2. YEET
I saw the rebranded o365 to copilot, Making the one last product that some people still had an appetite for look incredibly unappealing.
wewbull@feddit.uk · 18 pts · 220d
xxce2AAb@feddit.dk · 17 pts · 220d
I love that for him.
lemmy_get_my_coat@lemmy.world · 14 pts · 219d
Pop. Pop. Pop. Pop. 🤞
homesweethomeMrL@lemmy.world · 11 pts · 220d
I mean, they could shut down most of their shit tomorrow and still rake in twenty billion a quarter for the foreseeable future. Because businesses are stupid and pay for it.
He wants more adoption pre-bubblepop, but he’ll probably be the only one besides NVIDIA to actually make money on it. Eventually.
JcbAzPx@lemmy.world · 9 pts · 220d
He is nervous because the two groups that they count on to reliably buy their shit, gamers and corporations, are seriously looking into the readily available free alternatives. If they lose them chasing AI, Microsoft is done. They have no way to recover from that.
Knock_Knock_Lemmy_In@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 219d
Corporations are locked into the Azure cloud, Excel and PowerPoint.
Not copilot though.
JcbAzPx@lemmy.world · 3 pts · 219d
It's not as hard to become unlocked as you might think. All it takes is someone in IT knowing enough accounting to show how much they can save next quarter switching to Linux servers.
enbiousenvy@lemmy.blahaj.zone · 7 pts · 220d
honestly if the technology is lightweight to run on ordinary PC, I'd have tinkered with it long ago. I did try once but it's pretty slow to generate texts on my laptop, I quickly lost interest.
But also the typical implementation of the tech is built on cloud, locked behind registration, is enough to turn me off. It's just like any other free useful tools but works via web that requires login, so I never bother to try.
WorldsDumbestMan@lemmy.today · 3 pts · 220d
He is not on the list of people who get to "transcend"? Remember, they want to exterminate humanity.
HugeNerd@lemmy.ca · 2 pts · 220d
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VsE0BwQ3l8U&t=1492s