It's more a question what'll happen to the other AI companies. Investors have now seen the first of the big ones tank. They'll wonder if the same will happen with OpenAI, Antrophic and other AI adjacent like Microsoft, Nvidia. For a bunch of companies living of venture capital, that's deadly.
After the merger with xAI, that's about 22% of their business. The rest is AI. The brochure will tell you about reaching for the stars and living on Mars, but the main product is actually Grok.
It had nothing to do with profit and everything to do with the tens of billions in debt that was coming due. The merger then ipo was just to dump that bill on the public.
It's even questionable to me if some of the space x investors will be able to get out above water... Some of those shares were sold at insanely high values then diluted. Fuck them all of course, but seems likely all this ipo achieves is another year or so of runway for the ponzi
I disagree. That part is actually a somewhat reasonable business (though partially held up by public funds through contracts). The issue isn't what part is profitable. The issue is what part is getting all the investment and speculation. SpaceX was probably still overvalued for a space company, but they were doing something with measurable tangible value. The AI side is pure promise, and it's only speculation, and the speculation is wild. It's valued higher than something that's actually making profit.
I get what you're getting at, but I'd argue that we should look holistically at spacex. If their business model is launching a bazillion satellites and making a bazillion dollars we have to look at the entire launch complex as operating capital of starlink and spaceai. It all depends on starship launching a bazillion times a day so we should include development costs of starship as costs of starlink. The need for these businesses are necessary because the boom in private bookings of rocket launches that was anticipated with cheap launch services hasn't materialized and so they have an airport and planes without passengers.
I ain't no rocket economist but it seems "all the money" that starlink makes arent enough.
As much as I hate them, losing money is not the same as having negative value. Yeah, the current number is total bullshit, but they do have a value that's greater than 0. Information control has a value, and that's what they provide.
For the IPO I think only 7% of the value of the company was for their space related activities (what they are actually doing). 93% of the value was for the non existent AI activities.
I don't think the price of space x shares matter at all to someone who didn't know it released recently. And if they decided they suddenly do care, they could just open the article and read it.
It’s useful because it’s literally true. The stock hit its all time low. That interesting if the stock is decades old, and it’s interesting if the stock is weeks old. Whatever a person imagines has no bearing on any of that.
And most people who will click on this article don't have a fundamental understanding of the stock market, investing, or why this isn't really that big of a deal.
(Still, however, don't invest in SpaceX. The stock is structured so retail investors don't have meaningful voting rights.)
I don't think we're good enough at shitposting... We're probably mostly theta-gang
They said, I got a monthly put position in on spcx's fall, made my 40% and got out
This is a GOOD TAKE by YOU. The big danger on puts is that you can AT MOST make 100% of the investment if the company collapses completely to $0. If, for whatever reason (the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent), the stock explodes upwards, you can be on the hook for WAY more than 100% if the stock increases dramatically.
Thats not how puts work. Thats shorting the stock directly.
A put is an options contract. You can never lose more than your purchase.
If you pay $5.00 for a Jan $50 strike, you pay $500 (1 contract is 100 shares). As the date comes closer it becomes worth less, but as it approaches $50 or goes below it also becomes worth more. You can make a lot of money on a far out of the money put that goes near or in the money.
If it was $50 in November that put might be worth $40 (x100) so $4,000 and you paid $500.
The put becomes worth nothing if its over $50 by strike date.
Its a much safer way to bet against something than directly shorting.
Looks like there’s a starlink launch later today, and then a satellite resupply mission, both on Falcon 9s. Which is good because the falcon 9 is an incredibly reliable launch platform that should boost investor confidence.
And then on Thursday they’re gonna blow up another starship.
So we’ll see it tick up today and tomorrow, and then probably plummet again when investors see roughly $1,000,000,000 get turned into literal ash on livestream.
76 Comments
stermy4u@lemmy.world · 169 pts · 13d
First round of insider shareholders haven’t legally been allowed to even liquidate yet. This will be a bloodbath.
MyFriendGodzilla@lemmy.world · 18 pts · 13d
Gonna go grab my rubber ducky.
nialv7@lemmy.world · 14 pts · 13d
do we know when that's gonna happen? i heard they used some loopholes to allow insider holders to sell early.
Flower@sh.itjust.works · 33 pts · 13d
It's more a question what'll happen to the other AI companies. Investors have now seen the first of the big ones tank. They'll wonder if the same will happen with OpenAI, Antrophic and other AI adjacent like Microsoft, Nvidia. For a bunch of companies living of venture capital, that's deadly.
Simulation6@sopuli.xyz · 10 pts · 13d
I thought SpaceX made space rockets?
Flower@sh.itjust.works · 46 pts · 13d
After the merger with xAI, that's about 22% of their business. The rest is AI. The brochure will tell you about reaching for the stars and living on Mars, but the main product is actually Grok.
Peppycito@sh.itjust.works · 19 pts · 13d
Which just goes to show you how bullshit the profit margins are on space travel when they gotta turn the business into a chat bot to be "profitable"
CybranM@feddit.nu · 11 pts · 13d
I mean the only part of SpaceX making money is the space part, starlink
Peppycito@sh.itjust.works · 14 pts · 13d
That's the part making revenue, we're unsure if it's making a profit.
Valmond@lemmy.dbzer0.com · 1 pts · 12d
A part of the space part !
I read that if space x worked perfectly today, they have to do some 470 launches to just equalize Ariane because of the enormous cost spacex have had.
Hopefully we (the EU) will make reusable rockets for less...
locahosr443@lemmy.world · 4 pts · 12d
It had nothing to do with profit and everything to do with the tens of billions in debt that was coming due. The merger then ipo was just to dump that bill on the public.
It's even questionable to me if some of the space x investors will be able to get out above water... Some of those shares were sold at insanely high values then diluted. Fuck them all of course, but seems likely all this ipo achieves is another year or so of runway for the ponzi
Cethin@lemmy.zip · 2 pts · 12d
I disagree. That part is actually a somewhat reasonable business (though partially held up by public funds through contracts). The issue isn't what part is profitable. The issue is what part is getting all the investment and speculation. SpaceX was probably still overvalued for a space company, but they were doing something with measurable tangible value. The AI side is pure promise, and it's only speculation, and the speculation is wild. It's valued higher than something that's actually making profit.
Peppycito@sh.itjust.works · 1 pts · 11d
I get what you're getting at, but I'd argue that we should look holistically at spacex. If their business model is launching a bazillion satellites and making a bazillion dollars we have to look at the entire launch complex as operating capital of starlink and spaceai. It all depends on starship launching a bazillion times a day so we should include development costs of starship as costs of starlink. The need for these businesses are necessary because the boom in private bookings of rocket launches that was anticipated with cheap launch services hasn't materialized and so they have an airport and planes without passengers.
I ain't no rocket economist but it seems "all the money" that starlink makes arent enough.
danc4498@lemmy.world · 4 pts · 13d
I was wondering why the stock price was so high. Makes a lot of sense now.
anomnom@sh.itjust.works · 2 pts · 12d
Funny way to put it. Since it really makes even less sense to be valued higher with twitter and grok added. Since they both lose money.
Cethin@lemmy.zip · 1 pts · 12d
As much as I hate them, losing money is not the same as having negative value. Yeah, the current number is total bullshit, but they do have a value that's greater than 0. Information control has a value, and that's what they provide.
BastingChemina@slrpnk.net · 5 pts · 12d
For the IPO I think only 7% of the value of the company was for their space related activities (what they are actually doing). 93% of the value was for the non existent AI activities.
SpaceX is now a public company valued for its AI potential, so what comes next?
fullsquare@awful.systems · 5 pts · 13d
some people say it's august 8 then august 20
Itdidnttrickledown@lemmy.world · 3 pts · 13d
Does anyone say it on a platform that I'm willing to access?
mojofrododojo@lemmy.world · 4 pts · 12d
don't give me hope
snooggums@piefed.world · 85 pts · 13d
Hahahahaha wtf is this shit?
NekoKoneko@lemmy.world · 58 pts · 13d
No, you don't get it, Musk has a plan.
After that, it's basically a straight line to success.
chaosCruiser@futurology.today · 11 pts · 13d
Sounds like a great plan. I’ll get my popcorn. 🍿
CaptDust@sh.itjust.works · 19 pts · 13d
Tankin the economy with one easy trick!
RIotingPacifist@lemmy.world · 8 pts · 13d
Never thought I'd need to specify a vlookup needs to be 18+ only
RIotingPacifist@lemmy.world · 71 pts · 13d
It can go lower!
TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world · 55 pts · 13d
To shreds you say?
lemmyng@lemmy.world · 11 pts · 13d
And how's his fifteenth incubator?
TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world · 10 pts · 13d
To shreds you say?
psycho_driver@lemmy.world · 49 pts · 13d
Now do TSLA.
kamee@lemmy.zip · 12 pts · 13d
Meme stocks are meme stocks
OS2Warp@lemmy.zip · 1 pts · 11d
💎 🙌🏻 🚀 🌕
nialv7@lemmy.world · 38 pts · 13d
not low enough
Reygle@lemmy.world · 34 pts · 13d
jobbies@lemmy.zip · 27 pts · 13d
Its barely got history on the stock market so its hardly a 'record low'. Just say the price has dipped and leave it at that.
TBi@lemmy.world · 24 pts · 13d
But how will we know if it’s SLAMMED or DESTROYED if they don’t say it?
xenomor@lemmy.world · 15 pts · 12d
If it’s the lowest it’s been to date, it’s literally a record low. Calling it that is accurate and usefully descriptive.
jobbies@lemmy.zip · 0 pts · 12d
How is that 'useful'? If you had zero prior knowlege you'd be forgiven for thinking they had been trading for decades.
HereIAm@lemmy.world · 5 pts · 12d
I don't think the price of space x shares matter at all to someone who didn't know it released recently. And if they decided they suddenly do care, they could just open the article and read it.
xenomor@lemmy.world · 4 pts · 12d
It’s useful because it’s literally true. The stock hit its all time low. That interesting if the stock is decades old, and it’s interesting if the stock is weeks old. Whatever a person imagines has no bearing on any of that.
FlashMobOfOne@lemmy.world · 9 pts · 13d
Yeah, but that doesn't make for good clickbait.
And most people who will click on this article don't have a fundamental understanding of the stock market, investing, or why this isn't really that big of a deal.
(Still, however, don't invest in SpaceX. The stock is structured so retail investors don't have meaningful voting rights.)
friend_of_satan@lemmy.world · 5 pts · 13d
is it not a record low? what if it went up for the rest of its existence. would this point in time not be recorded as its historic low point?
kokesh@lemmy.world · 15 pts · 13d
Buttlicker, our price have never been lower!
edgemaster72@lemmy.world · 5 pts · 13d
Son you'll have to speak up I'm a bit hard of hearing
Peppycito@sh.itjust.works · 8 pts · 13d
HE SAID THINGS ARE MFING CHEAP RIGHT NOW. AROOOOOO
kokesh@lemmy.world · 3 pts · 13d
Bears, beets, Musk's fake hair
PattyMcB@lemmy.world · 13 pts · 12d
What an epic pump-n-dump.
I figured that would happen
Gsus4@mander.xyz · 8 pts · 13d
Not tech, but good news nevertheless :D
SabinStargem@lemmy.today · 8 pts · 12d
MedicPigBabySaver@lemmy.world · 7 pts · 13d
Ha, eat shit Elon.
lietuva@lemmy.world · 7 pts · 12d
Exit liquidity, bunch of IPOs this year gonna fall the same pattern.
Sharkticon@lemmy.zip · 7 pts · 12d
Still paychotic its even at $120.
SuiXi3D@fedia.io · 6 pts · 13d
Oh no! Anyway.
kalkulat@lemmy.world · 5 pts · 13d
Hope somebody here shorted 1000 shares the day they hit $220.
NotMyOldRedditName@lemmy.world · 7 pts · 13d
There's been 3 or 4 IPOs now, where ive wanted to buy puts for 6m to 1y out when I see a peak like that, and im always afraid to pull the trigger.
In this case i saw it hit 220, and come back down to 200ish, and I said if it goes back to 220+ ill get a few.
It never went back up.
Maybe next IPO.
ryannathans@aussie.zone · 8 pts · 13d
Do we have a wsb community?
Bustedknuckles@lemmy.world · 5 pts · 13d
I don't think we're good enough at shitposting... We're probably mostly theta-gang They said, I got a monthly put position in on spcx's fall, made my 40% and got out
BreakerSwitch@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 11d
This is a GOOD TAKE by YOU. The big danger on puts is that you can AT MOST make 100% of the investment if the company collapses completely to $0. If, for whatever reason (the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent), the stock explodes upwards, you can be on the hook for WAY more than 100% if the stock increases dramatically.
NotMyOldRedditName@lemmy.world · 1 pts · 11d
Thats not how puts work. Thats shorting the stock directly.
A put is an options contract. You can never lose more than your purchase.
If you pay $5.00 for a Jan $50 strike, you pay $500 (1 contract is 100 shares). As the date comes closer it becomes worth less, but as it approaches $50 or goes below it also becomes worth more. You can make a lot of money on a far out of the money put that goes near or in the money.
If it was $50 in November that put might be worth $40 (x100) so $4,000 and you paid $500.
The put becomes worth nothing if its over $50 by strike date.
Its a much safer way to bet against something than directly shorting.
BreakerSwitch@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 11d
Ahhhh forgive my confusion, thank you for explaining.
LastYearsIrritant@sopuli.xyz · 3 pts · 12d
I would never.
The market can be irrational far longer than I can afford.
hemmes@lemmy.world · 5 pts · 13d
This is expected for a stock like this. What we’ll now be able to see in the next few months is where the real valuation stands.
FukOui@lemmy.zip · 4 pts · 13d
Not sure Iif I understood it correctly, but consumer indices may already have bought overpriced shares
tehn00bi@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 13d
35 bucks more or less.
PattyMcB@lemmy.world · 2 pts · 12d
About tree-fiddy!
jaemo@sh.itjust.works · 5 pts · 13d
For a good laugh have a stroll through the yahoo finance comments. It's bounced back up to 126ish now. The hooting noises are just...so funny to hear.
87Six@lemmy.zip · 4 pts · 12d
To nobody's surprise
Earthman_Jim@lemmy.zip · 4 pts · 13d
Lmao
HAL_9_TRILLION@lemmy.dbzer0.com · 3 pts · 13d
One successful launch and it will be up to $350. The stock market is illegitimate.
Zron@lemmy.world · 4 pts · 13d
Looks like there’s a starlink launch later today, and then a satellite resupply mission, both on Falcon 9s. Which is good because the falcon 9 is an incredibly reliable launch platform that should boost investor confidence.
And then on Thursday they’re gonna blow up another starship.
So we’ll see it tick up today and tomorrow, and then probably plummet again when investors see roughly $1,000,000,000 get turned into literal ash on livestream.
Who’s ready to watch the rollercoaster?
Almacca@aussie.zone · 1 pts · 13d
(BFW - Big Fuckin' Whoopee)
Redditisbollocks@feddit.uk · 3 pts · 12d
There's a fucking surprise.
Thebeardedsinglemalt@lemmy.world · 3 pts · 13d
So at what point should we start slowly pulling money out of banks for the inevitable collapse
despoticruin@lemmy.zip · 17 pts · 13d
It probably won't matter as much, your best bet is to put it into useful assets while the money still has spending power.
deadbeef79000@lemmy.nz · 2 pts · 12d
Your best bet is to pull it out now and spend it. Prepper style.
A fiat currency will still collapse, fifty pallets of canned beans? They'll keep their value and more.
Atropos@lemmy.world · 3 pts · 12d
Hey, that's just my normal costco trip